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David from Oz

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About David from Oz

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  1. You don't have to rent a property profitably in Australia because (through the wonders of negative gearing) the tax man will refund half your loss. Add to that generous depreciation allowances you can often turn a pre-tax loss into an after-tax profit ... and when you sell you pay just half the income tax rate on your capital gains. Yes, our tax system is screwed up, but there is bugger all chance this changing (ever). The Hawke/Keating government tried to get rid of negative gearing in 1985 but was met with a tsunami of protest from the property industry, and it was reinstated in 1987. I
  2. I dunno Smurf, a lot of people (even bears) are talking long-term stagnation in Australia now... House prices: overvalued, over-owned & set for stagnation http://www.propertyreview.com.au/archives/...9062005010.html Historically we haven't experienced the big 30-40% crashes like the Poms have, just 10-15% falls followed by a long period of stagnation. Short of some major shock to the economy I can't see a crash happening in Oz ... and I remember what happened after 9/11, the property market didn't even pause for breath.
  3. Stagnation in real estate markets can and does happen ... just not in the UK. My local market (Sydney, Australia) seems to follow a cycle of boom, followed by a 10-15% drop, followed by an extended period of stagnation. We rarely see the 30-40% drops in house prices you get in the UK, and our troughs are shallower and longer. Australia is 6-12 months ahead of the UK in the current cycle, and despite stories about a real estate crash in Australia, no crash has eventuated. We've seen prices fall 10-15% during 2004, but most indicators (housing finance etc) have levelled off in 2005, while so
  4. Yes I have my work cut out over at www.propertyinvesting.com but its more fun posting where you're one of the few bears. It could be ... perhaps a replay of the late 80s boom and plateau thru the early 90s, but on a much larger scale.
  5. I bought the (printed) paper and scanned this chart ... the LHS of the Australia chart looks scarily similar to the LHS of the Japanese chart circa 1990.
  6. Anyone got an AFR subscription? I'd really like to read this article: http://afr.com/premium/articles/2005/05/24...6700707338.html "World property prices on a knife-edge" reports Corinne Lim. "The private sector is polarised about the global real-estate juggernaut. Bubble or no bubble? Gentle descent or crash? Safe bet or ticking bomb? Most economists have steered clear of disaster scenarios. But the froth in many markets refuses to subside despite the best efforts of policymakers, and some observers are rightly sweaty-palmed about a recent flare-up in speculative activity." http://www.he
  7. Is this the grumpy old men thread? So your generation fought five world wars and lived through three depressions? So what! The 20-something, designer clothes wearing, big brother watching, mobile phone users will have to buy the baby boomer's houses when they retire in a few years ... and it doesn't matter how many luxuries they forgo, they simply won't be able to afford these insane prices.
  8. Well, this makes the Australian government's first home owner grant look positively stingy! All we get is a one-off $7000 payment, not half the friggin' mortgage! http://www.firsthome.gov.au/ The Australian experience with the FHOG is that it simply inflated house prices, and pushed houses further out of reach for FTBs.
  9. Aussies, you can take on the bulls here: http://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/forum/16.html http://www.somersoft.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=6 ... or hang out in a bearish forum here: http://cracker.com.au/threads.aspx?categoryid=11061 Cheers, David.
  10. The Kiwis (to their credit) are considerably more independent that Australia. Howard proudly calls himself Bush's deputy in the South Pacific. I'd emigrate to NZ if it wasn't so friggin' cold and wet.
  11. Ok, Medicare ain't that bad by world standards, but John Howard is determined to dismantle it and put in its place a US style health care system. The 30% health insurance rebate is a gift from Howard to his mates in the private health insurance industry. Every month our premiums go up and up, and for what? True, but we also have the halving of capital gains tax, negative gearing and generous depreciation allowances which act like an after burner to the real estate boom.Read Kohler's brilliant piece after the 2004 budget (every bit as relevant a year later) Treasurer makes a big mess worse
  12. I would agree with all of this and more. Thatcher's Britain = Howard's Australia. ... and for all of you blaming Blair and Brown for the housing bubble in the UK, remember we have had almost 10 years of Conservative government and we have a housing bubble that is at least as bad, if not worse. At least Blair and Brown didn't introduce tax changes that directly fuelled real estate speculation. Cheers, David.
  13. Its the capital of NSW. All state capitals are called "capital cities" in Australia.
  14. I live at Manly Beach on the north shore of the harbour. That picture of the boat is the Manly ferry that takes commuters to and from the city. No-one is ever going to convince me that London or the UK is a better place to live, However... I'm at a loss also. It seems that 75% of the Australian economy seems to revolve around building, renovating and selling houses. See quote from this story: Confusing economic data ahead of Budget The money that fuels the housing sector is all borrowed (indirectly) from overseas. Australia's trade deficit is horrendous, worse that the U.S. at >7
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