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Euphorion

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Everything posted by Euphorion

  1. Today 805p. Kensington Mortgages The idea of moving out of first into second mortgages is bonkers. Sub-prime borrowers are facing less than 2% wage increases and 7% real inflation. They ain't a good bet. So sub-prime lenders, no matter how fancy their actuarial stats get, are the same. Furthermore, to move from first mortgages where you pick up the crumbs that the big banks don't want is fundamentally different from entering the door-stop loan-shark market. There's much worse to come. I wouldn't buy Kensington at 500p. There are no barriers-to-entry in this market and the relaxation of cre
  2. The only thing you should ever want desperately is your partner or the happiness of your children. The first has a large sexual element in it which you will lose control over as you get older, the second you will lose control over as they get older. It's downhill all the way I'm afraid. But wife and children admire you for moral probity, in varying degrees, as you get older. They think you are a has-been but cannot bring themselves to judge yoiu as a w*nker. But it does mean if you want to protect your wife and children, you should not go in at 499k.
  3. Wait. 499k is an awful lot of money for a terrace. A 0.25% cut saved this market last year, a 0.25% rise will kill it this year. What gets thrown upstairs can just as easily be kicked downstairs. At about 600 GBP per 100k gearing, you are paying approx. 3000 GBP pcm (and 2,250 GBP in opportunity cost.) There are fancier places to be in the world at those prices. I bought four houses of almost exactly the same construction (in the admittedly not so great area of the Meadows in Nottingham for an average price of 28.5k in 1998.) Sold them all at over 100k+. The Meadows in Nottingham is cert
  4. Complete nonsense. 1. Why are the buyers of 2nd homes more culpable than the sellers ? The sellers in these villages couldn't give a stuff about their neighbours' children either. 2. Why is it worse to buy a 2nd home rather than a 2nd Mars bar (which a starving boy in Africa could well do with) or a 2nd cup of Starbucks or anything else for that matter. It's philosophical nonsense to suggest 2nd homes are ethically evil and the 2nd round at the bar isn't.
  5. In Holbein's Lais from Corinth, a fragment of the picture shows a beauteous blond gold-braided girl in low-cut vermillion dress with golden sleeves, hand-outstretched, with a dozen gold coins on the table adjacent to her hand. There's a lot of gold flying about but what is she doing ? Is she an up-market blip-blip checkout girl ? A hooker demanding more ? A money-changer ? A beggar ? A poker-player ? In Venice two weeks ago looking at hotels. Saw two smallish hotels at 8m and 7m euros each. The usual palaver. Two sets of books. One for the tax man and one for the buyers. (Smart people keep t
  6. more worthless paper for glitter at 546 oh the exquisite pleasure of losing money like running on a rainy day
  7. It started off as what used to be called the "Chamberlain Ransom" - in 1885 in Birmingham, Joseph Chamberlain gave a speech in which he asked "What ransom will property pay for the security which it enjoys ?" - in effect the rich would be allowed to keep their goodies if they agreed to a mini-welfare state. This Welfare State blossomed under the Liberal government before the the First World War, mushroomed under the Labour government just after the Second World War, and now withers on the vine. The Great Dread was that this welfare society would alter people's behaviour and change their a
  8. But don't you feel the warm-glow of generosity as she spends.... £11.99 per month tv licence £276.10 per month mortgage £115.00 per month Black Horse loan 2 years left £127.10 per month car hp Yes car credit 3 years left £124.30 per month Halifax loan 4 years left £78.84 per month hfc loan 2 years left £24.84 per month car insurance £35 per month dell computer 1 year left £17.50 per month AOL £10.00 per week electric on meter £10 per month Gas on meter £44.54 per month life insurance for mortgage £21.00 per month Sky £11.00 per week bus fair for kids school £50.00 per week shopp
  9. I view some of the anti-BTL anti free-market posters on here with horror. I wouldn't say BTL people are my favourite people (they are dull, don't speak Latin, Ancient Greek, Aramaic or Coptic). But they are just the same as people who buy bananas or boats or buckets or Big Ben. So they deserve to be treated with the same amount of respect as any merchant (who provides the taxes which finance the public sector which vilifies the merchant). Merchants are moral in spite of themselves, whether they like it or not. They can't help being good guys. Most people cannot get their head round the conce
  10. Posting this in a more obscure section of HPC to avoid the jihadis. An important element of whether we are in boom or crash (rather than boring kboom) is determined by a definition of what property actually is. I'm not sure we need a rehashing of Grotius, Locke, Hume, Smith, Burke, Marx, Lenin etc so unlike the BTL jihadis, intelligent investors should avoid showing off (myself included). Rather than close down discussion with detailed analysis, I'll refrain from detailed comment and let free discussion develop. As a starting point, however, I want to ask is property a good or a service ?
  11. I think it's an error to confuse Kensington with a Debt Collection agency. Debt Collectors specialising in voluntary insolvency agreements are certainly flavour of the month. But their income stream is not as sound as analysts think. Kensington doesn't generate its profits from fees linked to debt but from issuing debt itself - this is fundamentally different and on an exponentially higher level of risk. They are completely different.
  12. I am Tanqueray Gekko which is very different. I write for the General Reader (who knows Ancient Greek and Aramaic as Enoch Powell, once quipped). Numis Securities have a target price of 785 which is only slightly less wimpish than 1000.... A bid is possible. Just before the last property crash in the eighties, banks were buying up estate agency chains (only to close them within two years). Bids gravitate towards overpriced companies in fashionable sectors like drunks to a pretty girl in a bar. Kensington Directors' recent Sales: Birch 1.3m squiddlies, Jones 650k squiddlies, Tomsett 1m sq
  13. It's a crap sub-prime lender and the Directors have been selling. (If anyone thinks the recent RBS or Barclays bad debt figures are worrying, wait till you see what happens to sub-prime in difficult times.) Most analysts have a target price of 1000 (currently about 1200). I wrote an investment brief about 6 weeks ago and gave 'em 650 which I thought generous. If anyone made them an offer I bet they'd bite their hand off. SELL.
  14. I'm amazed too. East London, E1, E2, E13 - silly prices but selling quickly at the bottom of the market, middle market up to 450k family houses also selling, above 500k people having a think. Just sold 3 ex-locals at 150k each. All purchasers 100% mortgage interest-only. Completely mad. They haven't got a pot to piss in so shouldn't be anywhere near this stuff. (Note: for 150k in edge of centre postcodes in London for 150k you are talking piss-in-the-lift though reasonably spacious estateworld.) The latest wheeze from the agents is that you can take out indemnity insurance against Major Work
  15. Is this the same Glasgow Council that had its housing stock taken away because it was so completely incompetent and racked up billions of pounds of debts reducing the value of its houses to 130 quid each ? Is this the same Glasgow Council which has the second worst Housing Benefit Fraud in the Country ? Is this the same Glasgow Council that has 58,000 people on Invalidity Benefit, making it (after Liverpool) the unhealthiest place to live in Europe. (The figures for Chernobyl are slightly higher but difficult to interpret.) The people who applaud this zealous prosecution and persecution of
  16. Kingsoak were also advertising in Investor's Chronicle (of all places !!!) this week, guaranteeing 8% yields (duh!, Homer!): 2 beds Napier Rd, Reading = from 229,995 (penhouses from 499,995) 2 beds London Road, Ascot = from 279,995 2 beds Burlington Avenue, Slough = from 179,995 If you want one: Kingsoakhomes Alternatively, join the John Betjeman Chapter of Al-Quaida. Slough by John Betjeman Come, friendly bombs, and fall on Slough It isn't fit for humans now, There isn't grass to graze a cow Swarm over, Death! Come, bombs, and blow to smithereens
  17. Interesting. I was talking with a couple of London and Paris landlords the other day. They have more than a hundred properties each with very low gearing, both commercial and residential. Both were active sellers on the commercial front because they believed a recession was coming and that rent levels could not be sustained. Both were also strong sellers of residential property because rents in all the major cities of France have already collapsed by 15% and are still going down (that has also happened in London) and secondly because as the London landlord put it "The people who want to buy my
  18. Information on success / failure of please. Thanks. E.
  19. Wake up you people in Hull and help me out.
  20. Someone posted a story on here a few months ago about the demise of Spencer Michael, the alleged property snake-oiler. He'd lost it all, his wife was leaving him. Unfortunately, I can't find it. Anyone know anything about it ? thanks, E.
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