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MOP

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Everything posted by MOP

  1. See my above post. The sheer size of the stimulus changes the U into a W. I don't think any of us could have expected governments to take such unprecedented measures of this magnitude. Would you have expected it this time last year?
  2. Not very revealing TBH. Roubini might not have got the sequence of events bang on, but he did make a number of very good calls before the crisis began. How many other "experts" managed to do this ? Not very many. I think everyone was caught out by the sheer size of the stimulus measures (Roubini included) to prop this thing up. The stimulus has changed a single recession into a double dip IMO.
  3. ? I don't know why you say that TBH. Roubini has been pretty clear about all this: 1 - Current "technical" recession will end in Q3/Q4 2009 due to positive growth (mostly from stimulus). 2 - A second "technical" recession will probably begin in 2010 due to the reasons he gives in the OP. The message is very clear IMO.
  4. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125107135585052521.html
  5. It will be engineered to be just about positive, say 0.1 or 0.2%. This will allow McStalin to claim victory in ending the recession as we go towards the election. I reckon we start going negative again in Q1/Q2 2010 when the QE wears off. Back in recession after the election.
  6. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32535028 Swizzle sticks at the ready!
  7. http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/21/news/econo...sion=2009082119 Colonial (biggest failure of 2009) last week and now Guaranty straight in at number 3 this week. The FDIC is officially bust.
  8. I think it will be 2 or 3 positive quarters. I think they will keep pumping the GDP with QE for 2 or 3 quarters until the election. That's why QE has just been extended IMO. They can then drop the QE and let TSHTF. The only thing that matters to McStalin is a new term in office.
  9. Yep. Ben knows what happens next year when the stimulus, cash for clunkers, dollars for dishwashers etc has run the course. I think the extreme government spending and stimulus schemes will turn UK/US GDP positive for the next 2 or 3 quarters and then the GDP will fall back into recession towards the middle of next year when they run out of money and can't print more due to inflation fears.
  10. This is an interesting choice of words from Benny: "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good" Replace the "swizzle" stick with a "swindle" stick and there you have it.
  11. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32509147 LOL The "real" bank balance sheets must be a fooking disgrace if they can't even remove the emergency measures for the forseeable future. What a sham.
  12. Indeed. They have killed demand in the car market for years to come by interfering with the natural cycle. They are about to do the same with domestic appliances and after that fook knows what. Things will get very bad next year because of all this UK/US government meddling. :angry:
  13. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32490783 Future demand is being wrecked by these half-arsed bribes. I dread to think what the next one will be.
  14. This sums it up quite well. What a fu*king joke of country we live in.
  15. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32489434 Not really unexpected though is it?
  16. This is the key issue. It looks like the attempts to stimulate the economy in the US started to falter in June 09 when the consumer contraction started up again.
  17. I would love to know what the media in China are saying about all this shit with the US. I heard some Chinese reporter on an American radio show a few weeks ago saying that one Chinese paper claimed that China was basically planning on not showing up for US treasury auctions in the very near future.
  18. I don't fancy the idea of lost decades at all. I would rather just have the sharp shock now and get it the fook over with, then we could at least start trying to build on a proper foundation. I'm not sure how much control we have over any of this now. We might get the sharp shock anyway.
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