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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Redcellar

  1. That would set the average mortgage at around £115 - 117. So average house price should be around £140K based on 80 LTV? A lot less up north and more down south. We would have significant falls to come then.
  2. I wonder if this is in part a reaction to Merv and BoE saying 'increase your capital or decrease your risk weighted assets, both are valid approaches to the same problem'. The latter is easier when you say your calcs rate the risk lower because they account for the cost of children. BoE would look at the model and agree. Perhaps this is the start of the changes of increased capital requirements and increased prudence that have been demanded. Sounds excellent to me if it is.
  3. This will be interesting to see. Theoretically, the larger houses are more expensive and are family homes. Yet the only people who will get the mortgages will be couples and singles without kids. Theoretically. Let the games begin!
  4. Doesn't work that way does it. Have you ever known anyone who sat down, opened up a spreadsheet, worked out all the costs of popping out a sprog and said "we can't afford it love, let's not bother". No I've never met anyone who's done it either. And we are in the midst of a baby boom again since the recession kicked in. Goes against the grain of what you are thinking. Back on topic. As others said. Affordability is being examined in detail by the banks, so this is just plain common sense.
  5. Nah, everyones a millionaire with that cash sitting in the bank. Only way the above model can work. I wonder what will therefore really happen
  6. They said they sold more of the cheaper evoque's and fewer expensive ones. Makes sense. I've seen loads of evoques recently. Bit like BMW shifting loads of 1 series and X3's. Cheaper way to keep up with the Jones' 1. No. You don't develop a car in just one year. 2. ? They typically produce less profit but not necessarily less margin. You'd have to see their costs to know and they won't share those.
  7. Back on topic: 1. Give the people who own empty properties money. So the properties will come back into circulation. 2. Charge 100% council tax for empty properties to encourage the owners to get them back into circulation. Given the lack of funds in this country I know where my vote is. I suppose the carrot or stick approach depends on if you are the ass.
  8. Respectfully. What you missed is the salient point that Merv stated TWICE, he was so adamant about it: You can increase your capital, or decrease the risk of what you hold. Both have the same effect. And what are we seeing the banks do ..... turn down loans to risky people and companies. Basically the market is saying I'll only lend to low risk weighted assets. So FTBer's and second steppers, good luck getting a mortgage if you have less than 30% equity. And it's unlikely to change in the next ten years IMPO.
  9. There is no evidence to suggest IO mortgages were mis-sold. The name even gives it away, which in full is "Interest Only Mortgages". Not going to be a mis-selling scandal on this one. You can even quote me on it. EDIT: see http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/oct/29/claims-firms-mortgage-mis-selling
  10. It stopped being just about the profit, value and governance of the company a long while ago. Why else is Facebook even worth $20? It's no more than a betting shop now. And the bet is how the other punter values the same company. Do you bet they rate it higher or lower. And with the advent of algorithmic trading it's become more a test of mathematics mixed with psychology than anything at all to do with the company. Dividends are still relied upon by the pension funds, but that leaves few companies really worth investing in.
  11. Unlikely anywhere near half of these will still exist by then though. Most people move house more often than once every 25 years. You have to take that into account. A FTBer in no way expects to be in the same house for ten years let alone 25. Average person moves home 3 or 4 times in their life. Of course it just means they are hosed sooner rather than later. EDIT: I would expect a significant batch of these to already be stuck, let alone 2020.
  12. I believe these figures are for retail 'full stop'. So they include internet shopping as well as the high street. The problem isn't one of the Internet but a complete decline in sales indicative of an economy that never left the depression of 2007, and one that is only just learning that you have to earn money to buy stuff. The last 'recession' only ended because the figures were fiddled by having all the olympics sales figures compounded. Take them out of that quarter and it never ended.
  13. Their latest Ad had me struggling to see how they sell anything. Apparently they have a brand new feature that's so cool I have no idea how I lived without it before. Through multiple taps and selections I can program my iPhone to mute itself between the hours I choose, so it won't wake me up. This feature is a huuuuuge selling point apparently. Worth a TV Ad. Before this feature I was always being woken up by my phone. Oh wait, I never was. That's right, instead of programming it to keep quiet I used to press a button to put it onto mute. And then press another when I woke up to turn the volume back up. Then I bought an HTC and all I had to do was turn it over and it automatically muted. Seriously Apple. This is a major innovation and selling point. What next, two i-cups and some i-string to replace the need for cell phone coverage?
  14. Separated but not divorced? I suspect you are still classed as a partner if you are married, is it really based upon actually living there? EDIT: OK answering my own question. Seems who ever claims the benefit is classed as the household. Anyone else living there also applies. So shared custody should be interesting as to who claims the benefit to avoid the clawback.
  15. OK I hold up my hand, I heard it was a data privacy thing last year but that's complete BS. The example you give of claiming tax credits is different to continuously receiving child benefit. You and your partner decide annually to apply for tax credits and fill in a joint form if you decide to apply. If I don't want to share my financial details then I decline and don't claim. For example we are separated and I don't want anything more to do with you, including sharing my financial details. Child benefit is continuously paid once an application is received. Therefore they claw back overpayments which requires compulsory disclosure of income. If we're separated then I might decide I don't want you to know my financial details, yet I still have a child. I can just fill in my self assessment, wife and kid get child support, and it's all done.
  16. Nice idea but illegal under European laws. The plan was originally a household income calculation, however EU laws on privacy mean you cannot force one married partner to have to divulge to the other their income. So you can't force the two to be added together. What you can do is require each person to have to complete such a question individually on their individual tax returns, hence the 50K and hence the requirement to repay at the end of the tax year. So therefore this is an unavoidable situation of unfairness. And I used that word in a semi sarcastic way, as how unfair is it to lose a benefit when you earn 50K and national average is half that.
  17. Mortgage rates 4% - HSBC 2 year fixed fee free 80% LTV Zero percent? Only for the banks NSandI ISA 2.25%, low but not 0.5% BoE rate is laughable. Not even replicated by NSandI.
  18. The long term result is even more frightening. What about a pension or other savings? Zero or at best very little. Living hand to mouth with no room for one of life's mishaps or any retirement.
  19. No surely not. If that were true people on here would have seen it coming and said something I truly wonder if these people 'in control' actually give a t0ss about the average person. They are so separated from it all. One could argue that their salaries should be the average for the UK, they should live in average houses with average lifestyles. Then see what choices they make and how productive they actually are.
  20. It makes no difference. The banks are tightening their lending criteria again. So this cheap money simply goes to the most credit worthy and lowest risks. That is not small businesses starting out and it is not FTBers or people with >60% loan to value. It makes not one jot of difference.
  21. Is that rhyming slang for something that happens in a brothel? He expected legal aid??? Your property not worth selling Mr? Greedy twonk. Pretty much sums up the story. And I couldn't give a Konnie Huq what happens to him next.
  22. +1 Multiple guess tests prove little other than basic retention of knowledge. The correct answer is already written for them for fecks sake. Real problems and real learning occur when pupils have to think about a problem from scratch with the knowledge they learnt. That's a proper test not a guessing game, and the teacher can see if they understood it only when they have had to demonstrate through their own workings how they got to the answer, not just what the answer is.
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