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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by MrFlibble

  1. When a dealer buys physical Gold they should take out an appropriate paper short to lock in the profit they will achieve upon sale of the Gold. Say a dealer buys 1oz for the current spot price of £1040, they should instantaneously take out a 1oz XAU/GBP short (short Gold, long Sterling) so that it matters not where the market now moves. 1. Say Gold goes down to £1000 and a buyer shows up. The dealer sells the Gold for 3% above spot which is £1000 + £30. The physical metal has lost £40 in value and the short that is instantaneously closed at the time of sale has made £40. Overall profit to dealer is £30, the 3% spread. 2. Say Gold goes up to £1070 and a buyer shows up. The dealer sells the Gold for 3% above spot which is £1070 + £32.10. The physical metal has gained £30 in value and the short that is instantaneously closed at the time of sale has lost £30. Overall profit to dealer is £32.10, the 3% spread. TBH I cannot see a dealer holding back stock to achieve a slightly higher return on the spread, especially not since a paper short will cost them more the longer they keep it open. A XAU/GBP short can be built from a GBP/USD long and a XAU/USD short, via Oanda the positions would cost around $0.02 each for every 24 hours held. Actually this is very cheap, maybe the dealers are holding out for higher prices after all, pennies for pounds
  2. Trouble with being long physical and short paper is you have to be very careful. The last thing you want to do is erode the 'gains' your physical has made by making bad calls in the paper market. Going short Gold is against trend so the trade is going to be a loser in the longer term (while ever the bull run is active). Finding yourself in a position of being short and wrong could leave you with the nasty decision of either hoping the trade comes good, possibly unlikely as you are against trend, or taking a loss on the chin, in effect driving up the cost average of your physical. You could use stop-losses but the volatility is likely to trip those leaving you slowly driving up the cost average of your physical. If played right this is a great way to basically bring down the cost of the metal your have already bought, but sadly it is not suitable for 99% of us due to the emotion involved with trading that ultimately leads to bad calls. HGM have stock of Krugerrands today (last day they are open before the hols I believe). Probably best to place the order before the London fix is in as the spot price is already £12 above the last one they used to fix the price. Edited to add - HGM have now no stock of any Gold, they did have around 85 Krugs a hour ago but not any more, I guess the dip has been bought
  3. Ron Paul won't get anywhere near the presidency, if he does he'll be taken out. The fact he wants to abolish the FED and put America back on some kind of Gold standard paints a big target on his back. Sad thing is without him America is FUBAR, the current legislation being passed over there is completely ridiculous and pisses all over the constitution. I'm very surprised the streets are not full of 'patriotic' Americans with pitchforks and torches. The sooner they are out there the better, ideally before they lose the last of their freedoms.
  4. Completely ridiculous! Her biggest mistake here was obviously having money in the system where it could be monitored. I used to think old people were crazy having cash hidden all over the house, cases like this show otherwise. Prudence is a waste of time in this country unless you are removing your excess wealth out of the system where the thieving government cannot get their dirty paws on it. The fact she chose not to piss the money up the wall is not an excuse for the government to come and take it, if anything the government should be revising the allowance down for all the other claimants based on this news. If she can live in a rusty old caravan and survive with £2k excess pa than so can the rest of them. Don't like it? Tough, get a job in the private sector and work for a living like the rest of us mugs!
  5. +1 Very much doubt we'll get anything put through that 'hurts' the housing ponzi.
  6. The drop in price has no doubt lowered the percentage of your wealth (measured in fiat) that you hold in Gold, hence you should buy more Gold to bring that number back up to target Interestingly I tried to up my percentage lately but despite buying an extra 10% I've ended up with less percentage now than I had before I started (before the largest part of the drop). I need to buy some more now I guess Like others have said, the fundamentals haven't changed, the reasons for holding Gold now are the same as they were last week, last month, last year... You either believe in it or your don't, this site has bulls and bears with regards to Gold. The financial system is completely breaking down, what Gold will be worth when the zero level is finally reset is anyone's guess, the only guarantee is that it will not be worth zero. Ironically the same can be said for a house! Best outcome is probably if we get back to a state where 50oz of Gold buys an average house. TBH I don't care how we get there (inflation or deflation) provided we get there. My Gold is predominantly for a house purchase at some point. The swapping of one asset for another. How much fiat it converts back to isn't really a concern yet, but I do like the sound of getting more Gold for my fiat
  7. I was just about to reply with something similar. Will also add that there are no signs of people driving any slower to try and make their fuel go further. The working poor are no doubt suffering the most which is creeping up to the lower middle classes, however people of a certain age who 'bought at the right time' and are still in employment continue to party like it's 1999.
  8. You spoke too soon, now £1015. Me thinks they are attempting to teach the Gold bugs a lesson. Wonder what HGM's stock level will be over the next few days, should be a good indicator on how well the lesson is being received.
  9. It's still going down because I got impatient and bought some yesterday At this rate I'll be digging back up that £900 buy target I had - possible by the end of the week Question is, are we scared yet? Let's see how it goes, strong support should be around $1550 for Gold and £25 for Silver. I get the feeling we'll be there soon enough! No idea if these levels will hold or not, since MFing Global blew up the whole thing has become unstable, mix in Europe and as per usual the chumps are rushing toward the 'safety' of the Dollar. I could swear we have been here before I see Nouriel Roubini is taunting the Gold bugs, it would be funny if the stakes weren't so ******ing high.
  10. Rubbernecking maybe? I'm holding off for a while longer before I go around and see just how low desperate over-leveraged sellers will go to get shot of their shacks.
  11. +1 When Gold does indeed form a top shorting it will make you a lot of cash. I'm hoping to play it both ways, but I'm not be looking to short it until the fiat money system is on the road to recovery - no rush there then
  12. Probably will be public debt in time as I cannot imagine an end result that doesn't involve the taxpayer owning all the these so called banks. Still once they're nationalised them and fully transferred all the loses to the taxpayer they can then sell on the profitable parts at a 50% discount just like they did with Northern Rock. Good game, good game...
  13. A few notes here: This chart is looking at all kinds of debt, not just sovereign debt. The UK's staggering debt-to-GDP ratio is largely due to the size of its financial sector. All financial sector debt is, to some extent, potentially government debt, since all governments end up having to rescue their financial sectors in the event of a crisis. That's what brought down Iceland and Ireland. And yet, for reasons we explained here, the UK is still seen as a gold-standard among safe-havens. By no measure does the US look remarkable debt-wise -- even household debt/GDP doesn't look that bad. For that matter, Europe doesn't look that bad either. Their problem is not debt, but fiscal/monetary structure. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/g10-countries-by-total-debt-to-gdp-2011-12 Shockingly bad number but not surprising at all.
  14. It's brutal but this is exactly what is happening, just in slow motion. A 50% wealth transfer could well be optimistic by the time this has fully played out. Steve Keen seems to have a different take on the money printing idea. Think it went along the lines of the printed money being directly handed to the population, both savers and debtors, the stipulation being the debtors would have to use the money to immediately pay down their debt. Not sure if this would work or not but it seems like a better way to reset the system without savers getting screwed and debtors getting a free lunch. Since we are heading for default in one way or another then some kind of solution could do with being found before the entire fiat money system goes up in smoke and we end up dining on each other.
  15. Who eventually ends up paying these zombie loans? Taxpayer I assume?
  16. Surprised it's not down more to be honest. Maybe it will be down 13% next year and 13% the year after that. Too many people leave University to embrace a career in burger flipping, £40k of extra debt added to that isn't exactly the deal of champions.
  17. Maybe people are spending time in these warm cosy shops without buying anything to avoid paying the gas bill that is deflating at -15% every six months Deflation cometh indeed
  18. Story of two halves. Some people are still partying like it's 1999, some are not able to. Some of my work colleagues who were struggling pre-2007 are now enjoying the housing party. Despite having bought around the peak, they are on trackers so are rolling in money and feel good too thanks to TPTB propping up the market. Same cannot be said for some of our family friends who bought at roughly the same time in N.I. Although they are getting by thanks to low mortgage rates they have a very bitter taste in their mouths with regards to the housing crash. It's naive for the English to believe that what's happened in N.I. cannot happen in the mainland, although most I speak to seem to think it's different here. The 'owners' of expensive houses probably believe it's different for them too, just like it's different in London. It's not different though, if the low end of the market is dropping out then it will float up to the top end eventually.
  19. Some aggressive laughter with option c there I'm starting to believe there is a meteor hurling towards earth that will wipe us all out in a couple of years time, hence the reason TPTB don't seem to give a damn about putting together a plan that may actually work out. What do we have, something like a £3bn deficit each month? It would be interesting to see what would need to be cut to bring that to zero, a hell of a lot I'd guess.
  20. Father Christmas has arrived early it would seem, question is does George Osborne have a sack or is he one? How the hell we still have our AAA rating I don't know, all these idiots know how to do is spend and shuffle money from one part of the economy to the other. Every cut announcement seems to come along with a spending announcement that is anywhere from 1-4 times the size.
  21. What about these guys? http://www.atkinsonsthejewellers.com Their prices are on par with HGM from the looks of it. They also offer in store pickup in Birmingham, cash on collection and no ID if purchasing less than £5k Anyone any experience with them?
  22. +1 We've already got the docile population for it, a population who with information at their fingertips choose to know nothing. When their job and wealth are gone and their bellies are hungry they'll be looking to the state for help, the very same state that took away all their freedoms in the first place by destroying free market capitalism. Long live David 'el ponzi' Cameron!
  23. Paying £225k for something that you cannot swing a cat in is no laughing matter I'm afraid. House becomes tomb They should consider themselves very fortunately if it's only lost two grand, I'd be getting shot myself before that number increases exponentially So having 'owned' for some 4 years and having lost only £2k they find themselves not having enough equity to move up the 'ladder.' Sounds like this 'equity' they speak of was assumed to be coming from the increase in property prices and not through hard graft and over paying on their current mortgage. I love these property hard luck stories, especially the ones accompanied with pictures of the shiny faced individuals who seem to feel they were somehow cheated. At the end of the day nobody forces anyone to buy a house, if people chose to buy and the property market goes tits up then tough shit, do more research before taking on a leveraged investment product that takes half of a working life to pay back. The sooner people realise that buying a house isn't a road to endless unearned riches the better.
  24. Does anyone have experience with Elm Investments? Curious to how they work, what payment options are available, etc.
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