Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by MrFlibble

  1. Chant after me - you cannot go wrong with bricks and mortar :rolleyes:

    For every winner there is an equal and opposit loser. It's all well and good people extracting all these unearned profits from property but the next mugs who come along must cover all these profits using wages that haven't remotely kept pace with our disfunctional housing market.

    Unless we get some wage inflation then I'm struggling to see how this current rally in prices doesn't hit the rocks.

  2. Based on my own circumstances I could save 45% of my rent (gets better over time) if I buy my rental and start paying a mortgage.

    This is if I take out a BR + 1.99% Tracker from Santander with a 40% deposit, which is currently earning 1.71% Gross interest (instant access).

    It would take me 11 months to break even before I start seeing the savings - 2% buying cost, 1% stamp and 1% for solicitor / mortgage fees.

    These calculations are done with the mortgage payment and rent set at exactly the same level.

    It would take 180 months (15 years) to clear the 60% mortgage.

    I did my own spreadsheet for these calculations, which factors in the savings / deposit interest offset. I didn't incorporate any maintenance costs or buildings insurance.

    Adjusting the spreadsheet to factor in a typical H2B deal - 5% interest with a 5% deposit, same monthly amount for mortgage, after 300 months (25 years) I'd have paid off 2.5% of the mortgage leaving just 92.5% from the 95% I started with :lol:

    I guess it is better to buy then rent after all :P Plus you get to spin the wheel at Osborne's Lucky Wheel of Housing Misfortune.

  3. I don't even think a split with the LibDems will work. IIRC it is law that the election is May 2015 so they can't call an early election. The thing Osborne needs to do is keep the plates spinning for another year.

    I think Osborne shot his wad a little too early with H2B.

    Keeping this thing spinning until the election is looking doubtful with MoM increases this daft.

    They'll burn it out if they are not careful.

  4. Funnily enough we moved from the south east after migrating from Devon/Somerset.

    Thank you very much for all your info. We applied to Canada with the idea of being more rural but unfortunately didn't get in, well, we didn't even have our application looked at in almost 6 years and in the end they sent us a refund for the application fees.

    It's either a long commute from the North of England for me since I only need to go into the office once or twice a week or a complete move abroad.

    The last straw (of many) was the when we received a call from an estate agent two weeks after looking at a rental for £1200 a month. I was polite and described it as dingy but in all honesty it was a shit hole. Anyway, he said if we lower our expectations he had something else to show us. When pressed on the matter it turned out the place he had was much the same as the other one. Competing like this, paying more for less is very bad.

    It's a race to the bottom now in the UK. I thought people would wake up when they discovered they'd been eating horse instead of beef but it would appear not. I don't know how far people can continue to be pushed before they break. The other half works in Retail Management and the stories her staff tell about their struggle to cover the basics just boggles the mind. Society has now deteriorated to the point where thieves now openly pull up outside her store, walk in, pick up six boxes of product, walk back out again and drive off. To add insult to injury the ones doing the stealing are burly Easer Europeans, although not all of them to be fair. This is in a place where it cost £1200 to rent a crap hole and over £350k to buy the same crap hole. What's wrong with this picture? :unsure:

    About the only thing higher house prices guarantee is a lower standard of living, I just wish people would wake up and realise it.

  5. However, there is no shortage of houses or cheap houses here now. So in a way yes, the UK should be more like Ireland ;)

    What's the employment situation like over there now? I've been looking at Southern Ireland for a while and it's amazing what you can get for the money, especially if you are flexible in terms of location. Sadly my career isn't portable but it's got to the stage where me and the other half are sick and tired of playing this race to the bottom game here in the South East.

  6. House price boom and lots of personal debt ... sounds like Canada to me and George thinks he now has the election won plus a third term if the housing boom continues for another five years ... sorry not boom, it's 'recovery from a low base'.

    George Osborne, the man who once praised Ireland as a MIRACLE from which Britain should learn.

    Quite clearly he still believes this tripe, even after witnessing what happens when a housing market becomes a giant ponzi scheme and then runs out of suckers.

  7. Nothing will happen until interest rates rise and they will not rise for years or until after the election. Slow modest recovery with some drop in unemployment and some GDP growth, so steady and slow with no interest rate rises and a boom in property prices. The plates have been kept spinning so why would George and Mark change now? This situation makes many voters very happy.

    What you describe there wouldn't be so bad if it were not for the last part, the boom in properly prices. If we could achieve the same but with some unwinding of the debt burden and stagnant/falling property prices then I could see a sustainable path forward and some signs of a increase in living standards. This doesn't seem to be what they want though and any signs of deflation and de-leveraging cause TPTB to crap in their pants.

    I'm assuming the grand plan, if there is one, is to get wage inflation going at some point? Surely deflating wages and inflating house prices can only go so far before people simply cannot afford to drive to work or put food on the table any more? If Gas and Electric are anything to go by then I can see even more people struggling this year than last.

  8. Hard to tell what is moving quicker, the housing market up or the quality of life down.

    Still I'm sure they are not related in any way.

    I was looking over my old neck of the woods the other day in Milton Keynes using Property Bee, detached houses up to £400k, about half a dozen increases and five dozen reductions out of 256 properties. Either the price increase wave out of London hasn't hit MK yet or the numbers are BS, sadly I suspect the former.

    Who the hell is driving this I'm not sure, I'd have thought FTB's would have given up completely by now. It does look like new builds are getting snapped up at record speed though, probably George Osborne's help-to-sell scheme at play here.

    Looking over the whole crisis from 2007 it would seem the nutters running the asylum have shoved all the chips on the very same section of the roulette table that blew up in the first place, only this time around we have interest rates at virtually zero and boundless money printing, neither of which are working at creating any real sustainable economic activity. More debt piled on top of a big pile of existing debt, that's all we seem to have. It's a FAIL.

  9. So...

    North Korea is rattling it's cage, japan's currency is going down the pan, helped by Fukushima, Israel may or may not attack Iran, Syria is a war zone, China's economy may be fragile, the Fed and BoE are having a pi**ing contest to see who can consume the most wood pulp and linen, Cyprus may be the point at which the EZ unravels, if not Portugal, Spain, italy, Ireland or the Netherlands, the ECB treats everyone's cash savings as their own, the NY and London stock exchanges are like a bubble on steroids, Bitcoins have been hammered as a safe haven for money

    Just the thing to make people sell gold and buy fiat while they can still carry the money they get for it without a wheelbarrow. :huh:

    WTF is going on? :unsure:

    Apart from TMT's suggestion that there may be fears that some Soverign may be forced to dump it's gold on the open market, I can see nothing that even remotely explains the markets. it is entirely contrary to what should happen in a working market. Bizzare.

    I may well be filling my boots with cheap gold soon.

    Brilliant summary.

    Sovereigns selling their Gold to pay off odious debts is bad enough, but to announce it beforehand is just plain stupid, which seems to be what happened with Cyprus. Dumping on the open market isn't required and won't happen. A quick call to China will sort that problem out, we'll take the Gold, here's a pile of US Treasuries, enjoy...

    The more they push Gold down the more physical China and Russia will remove and the more US Treasuries will be sold. If this is an attempt to save the Dollar then it's a poor job. Given the amount of non US Dollar trade agreements starting up one does have to wonder what the hell is going on here.

    Maybe it is simply a case of no more printing of money that's driving down Gold, if so, bring it on, a deflationary collapse sounds good to me - the UK housing market desperately needs one that is for sure!

  10. Judging by the comments over there loads are seeing this as buying physical opportunity - but loads seem confused as to why the dealers are not selling them physical at these prices :rolleyes:

    HGM have roughly the same stock now as before the weekend, people appear to be picking at it piece by piece though. I suspect if this bounce off $1400 goes a little higher they'll be cleaned out later today.

    I don't think we are done myself, at least I hope not. No desperadoes on eBay yet either with ridiculously low BIN's trying to offload their stash.

  11. They bounced just above 1400 and 23. Leaving it for the Yanks to drive lower this afternoon?

    All the supports are gone, this sucker is going down. It's feeding on itself now. Gold bug splatter is everywhere...

    Nobody is going to take the buy side of this in the paper market that is for sure, not unless they have a good supply of shirts :lol:

    I had this event pencilled in for when the Euro broke apart, but instead it seems to have been triggered by the banksters advising the people to go sell their Gold.

    Not to worry, there is strong support somewhere and with £50+ a day drops we'll be there soon enough :rolleyes:

    I look forward to Dollar cost averaging lower, but I'll not hold my breath...

  12. Silver only down 5% now. Recovery underway. Should be 50 bucks by brekkie time :lol:

    You've been reading King World News again ;) Sorry, couldn't resist :lol:

    Most on ZH are busy buying, or trying to buy, so their faith is not wavering - yet. Apparently it is all a conspiracy.

    The beauty of today's markets is you don't have to implement a confiscation racket to get people to turn over their Gold on the cheap, you simply drive the paper price down and scare people into turning it over. Lets see if HGM have received a flurry of Jiffy bags this morning from frustrated Gold bugs fearing the worst, after all, they gave us a nice long weekend to think it over :lol:

    Be interesting to see when the dust settles just how much inventory they have clawed back with this. Also be interesting to see if the beating is complete or not.

    My only conclusion here is that the greatest wealth transfer of our time continues unabated.

  13. All the ducks are now lined up, in the US, indexes are hitting new highs, the media is full of recovery and the worst is behind us talk, the Golden safe haven is looking unsafe (no longer required), unemployment is falling, people are starting to buy houses and cars again and the Federal Reserve are suggesting exit strategies and ending QE. Much the same can be said for the UK.

    This it it folks, they have engineered what looks like a recovery, one can only assume they are hoping like crazy it actually turns into one.

    What I'm really looking forward to is the day the Federal Reserve takes away the punchbowl and allows the economy to stand on its own two feet.

  14. Today @ Atkinsons


    "Due to volatility in the precious metal markets we are unable to take any further orders at present. Please call for further information."


    Not sure why this is as I was under the impression dealers used the spot or fix market to short their physical stock and simply make profit on the buy/sell spread. There is no volatility here, the price is simply crashing...

    As anyone successfully bought at £980 + premium today, if so where? I have some filthy fiat I'd like to dispose of!

  15. This is now looking much better and more like what I wanted. It will fall more though. The Chinese and Russians must be having a field day (if not them, who is on the other side of all these trades? hmmmm).

    You would think the west would want to force the Russians and Chinese to pay more for this barbaric relic not less, unless the west (US) simply doesn't have the Gold and is forcing the paper price down so it can buy the physical on the cheap - to fulfil the likes of the German repatriation request.

    The good thing here is we may finally find out what the true price of physical Gold is - at some point in this fall the physical buyers will step in, be it at $1000, $100 or $10.

    From what I read the cost of mining an ounce of Gold is around $1200 and Silver $27. If this is to be believed then Gold as a way to fall but Silver can now be bought for less than the mining costs. Be interested to know if anyone as better numbers for these mining costs...

    I luck forward to the day an Oz of Gold is $0.01, then I can finally buy that Solid Gold house like that hobo in The Simpsons :lol:

  16. Have you all protected yourselves ?

    The money of Kings and Gentlemen isn't working out so well right now. Anyone who got involved over the past 12 months are probably wondering why the hell they bothered :(

    You can run from the money printers but you cannot hide (protect yourself), or so they would have us believe...

    Best protection seems to be spending money on the things that will be required in life, now and later. A house is at the top of my list but those are still 50% overvalued here in the UK, still that may not matter in the full course of time if this money printing madness continues unabated.

    What a clusterfukc!

  17. Oh dear, not been on here in a while and thought I'd read this juicy new thread.

    I realised after the first page that it started a year ago :rolleyes:

    Sad really how nothing seems to change.


    Shame the same cannot be said about our debts, which seem to be constantly increasing so the property market can at best stand still.

  18. Still, when land/shelter prices have been put through the roof and rent seekers are gobbling up all surplus wealth, I don't suppose it's surprising. People see the solution as working ever harder to pay for the bills, rather than questioning the validity and necessity of the bills in the first place.


    In other parts of the world we are seeing the people fight back, but here in the UK, other than the short riots in London and a bit of the Occupy movement nothing is really happening.

    Boiling frog syndrome...

  19. ComRes found that 72 per cent of the public believe it is time for the Coalition to perform a U-turn so that its policy is focused more on promoting growth and less on cuts, while 17 per cent disagree and 11 per cent don't know.

    Sound just up the governments street, the ConDems love u-turns, it's all they done since coming into power.

    As for growth, what is growth these days? Deficit spending? Creating multiple £'s of debt for each £ of GDP? Using inflation and devaluation to pretend we have a productive growing economy? Continually stealing from the next generation so we can party like it's 1999 non-stop?

    There is no growth, there hasn't been for a decade, maybe several, it's all one giant ponzi scheme fueled by debt that can never be paid back in honest terms.

    As the turd nears the fan the people are desperate for a sugar coated solution provided by the state. No surprise there then...

  20. Instead of gold, investors are turning to the dollar as they shun the eurozone and its shared currency. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback's strength against six rivals, climbed a 13th day to reach a four-month high."

    It seems clear that gold has reacted poorly to recent events.

    What do you think folks? How low can it go?

    I'd read from a few people I respect that Gold would probably fall when the Eurozone blew up. Didn't quite expect it being so vicious but like Peter Schiff says, it takes the stairs up and the escalator down. We've seen quite a few -$100 days but I cannot recall one +$100 day.

    Judging on how poorly the safe haven aspect of Gold is performed against the Eurozone backdrop, which is now past the point of no return IMO, I'd say Gold is going to go a lot lower, but ironically I expect they'll not be a scrap available to buy anywhere to take advantage of it. Been watching HGM of late, their inventory is now at zero and their stock levels on the way down would suggest no panic selling of physical. I know this is only one small company so not that relevant but I'm also hearing about very large physical orders being filled too. The paper price seems to be heading down faster that the empty trucks are showing up to take the physical metal away from the people forced to liquidate, but only just :)

    Some of the stuff Jim Willie writes about is very intriguing, not sure if he's right or wrong but his viewpoint is very interesting.

    My bottom picking skills are useless in terms of calling prices but it looks to me like the very best opportunity to buy will be after the Euro disaster has played out and the negative news from this area is exhausted. This point could be when all the PIIGS have left the Euro currency, or after the Euro has been split into a Northern and Southern version, or something that basically brings an end to the uncertainty. At the minute the crack papering is just making the matter worse and there is no end in sight, at least not one that involves puppy dogs, fluffy pillows and bathing in champagne. Trouble is here we have to factor in the printing press, just how much money will they be forced to print during this crisis period to keep the banking system from going under? Gold should respond to money printing, but it seems to be more Dollar printing than anything else.

    Off course we have the US situation as well, which at some point will come into play and be the ultimate driver for Gold most probably going to the moon and kicking off the real bubble in Gold.

    The ideal situation is Europe coming to a head before eyes shift to the US, but I cannot see that happening, this Europe thing has been dragging on for years now and I'd say after the US elections the bad US news and new printing will arrive again. We'll most probably end up with bad Euro news pulling Gold down and bad Dollar news pushing it up, the swings being wild and unpredictable as faith in both currencies fail.

    As Errol keeps reminding people, we are heading into a paper collapse. It is mathematically impossible to pay the debts back, we either:-

    1. Honestly default

    2. Default via inflation

    3. Follow Japan

    No. 3 ultimately ends with 1 or 2 decades later.

  21. The goldbugs inflation may still yet come but it looks like there is going to be a huge deflationary event first.

    It's sure looking that way, timing is going to be the difference between making a fortune and losing it.

    Given the inflow of cash into the Dollar and the US elections I cannot see Bernanke printing before the election but his hand may end up forced due to Europe.

    They are scared to death of deflation that much we do know.

  22. The message behind the price of gold and silver falling is not that the 'bubble' is over, but that the mother-of-all deflationary crashes is about to come. In fact, I'd put money on it occuring within the next 4-5 weeks. Paper bugs will have their moment - for a while - until TPTB panic and print. This will be the trigger for hyper-inflation. Of course, while all this is happening, the price of gold will be last thing you will be worrying about. Food and water will be the greatest priority. I'd say you have about a month left to stock up on food and essentials. The end game is now here. Good luck and godspeed.

    When the price of Gold moves either way in a very dramatic manor we need to be very worried indeed.

    The fall in Gold would be great if the financial crisis was over and we were returning back to the growth and the good times, sadly we are not, the Eurozone is coming apart and we are seeing a massive dumpfest of everything in exchange for the Dollar.

    What is really worrying is the Greek disaster is not exactly an unknown or unexpected event but yet we've got mass panic selling. Sadly this is just the start and we know exactly what solution will be trotted out, to no doubt save the failing banking system again, more printed money...

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.