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House Price Crash Forum


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About espada

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    HPC Newbie
  1. why are people in such a rush? I luckily sold my first time buy just at the beginning of the last crash in 1989 and rented until 1995, bought in december 95 for £113,000 and been here ever since. Going by local sales it apparently was "worth" over £400k last year, which is crazy. So from the last crash, prices collapsed then bumped along the bottom for a period of 5 or 6 years . Media/sheeple were stating then that the housing market was dead forever, nobody would ever buy again etc etc. But they did, of course. This time around things are much worse economically, prices haven't yet really crashed. Affordability constraints haven't yet bitten fully. I can't see prices bottoming out and stabilising for a good while yet, say 2013/14 at the earliest, even without a depression... with one... who knows when? So why rush? If we have deflation, it may be 15 years or longer. Those highly leveraged folks need good jobs and inflation before they will be in a position to consider selling. I'm looking for at least 50% off peak 2007 prices before I will even consider looking and that's probably still far too high. The time to start looking is when everyone isn't interested anymore, when they consider houses as something to steer well clear of. If you do the opposite to the sheeple it often works out quite well but consider the timing. Wait for the volatility to drop off completely.
  2. OO small mortgage, bought Q3 1995. Desperately need another bedroom, so waiting for the bottom of this crash.
  3. Heather, there's some useful info (well I found it useful) on this blog: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2008/09/notio...-our-enemy.html As I understand it and I could be very wrong here, investments in debt-based stuff that were rated as poor (BBB etc) by the credit rating agencies require substantial (to the order of 350%) capital to be held by the investor (Bank). In order to avoid setting aside such amounts, the current Basel regulations allow them to "hedge" using these type of instruments, which improves the credit rating of the debt-based stuff, to say AAA and reduces the required set-aside capital, to something considered much more reasonable (like 10%). So, I suspect cancelling them would make a few more bankers choke on their latte's.
  4. as long as the telly stays on and the kettle boils it'll be fine.
  5. interesting. what about pension funds? what about foreign banks (HSBC etc)? kick them out? or let them compete? Europe & US would bitch and moan, anti-competitive etc. leave the EU? what about the effects on sterling (maybe good or bad, I don't know)? foreign investors/sovereign wealth funds? probably fairly big shareholders in UK banks... would they ever come back if they lost all their holdings? we don't have any industry, no home-owned manufacturing to speak of, only "services" which are now screwed, we import everything, pretty much. Piss off enough people and we'll truly be on our own... a good thing? maybe, eventually, rebuild/start from scratch but a big big risk, mass unemployment, massive state burden. It may have to happen anyway..
  6. this site should be renamed worldcrash.co.uk, WC for short.. To think, I only wanted a rapid interest rate rise to force a ~50% reduction in house prices so I could afford one more bedroom for the little 'un without taking on the world's debt, which as a taxpayer I think I've now taken on anyway and I haven't even got the extra bedroom to show for it
  7. the auction have priced Lehman bonds at 8.625 cents on the dollar. Settlement day is 21st October, so no end to the volatility in sight, esp with WAMU and Iceland Banks to come. Morgan Stanley continue to look shaky as their CDS are trading at 28% upfront and word on the ground is that their prime brokerage got a hammering today. Nobody knows what will happen as there is little experience of this type of major credit event, hence the liquidating of positions, risk avoidance and hoarding of cash... There is no transparency here without a regulated exchange, so nobody knows the counterparty positions. Only way to fix this whole debacle is to develop one, which is apparently being done right now, but it will take time.
  8. With LTV <=60% and a strong credit rating you can still get a mortgage fairly easily. The funds are taking forever to be released though....
  9. well, BANG I guess. Sorry, just fishing with a dodgy bit of bait. That's a quote from the "How monetary policy works" page on the BOE site. I was quite taken aback, although why I don't know, when I came across it some time ago. In my naivety until I read this I don't think I had realised that it was Govt policy to use MEW to drive this bubble...
  10. Lower interest rates can boost the prices of assets such as shares and houses. Higher house prices enable existing home owners to extend their mortgages in order to finance higher consumption. Higher share prices raise households’ wealth and can increase their willingness to spend. Surely it's logical isn't it?
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