Kyoto
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Posts posted by Kyoto
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And it doesn't look overpriced to me. It's well within the price range of similar in the area.
£400,000, or nearly *half a million pounds* for a house doesn't look overpriced?
That's at least 15x local income.
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This looks as if it was written by someone from here.
Good.
It makes perfect sense though. Every £1 that goes into the housing market via these schemes is an extra £1 in demand.
The government could save billions by doing nothing.
If they actively tried to push down rents and housing costs they could make tens of billions in increased competitiveness, less housing related benefits, more stamp duty as the market gets moving again.
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It's all about affordability. If interest rates double, the price of houses will (aproximately) half, so you'll end up paying the same monthly amount.
If that was the case, that would be great. But it doesn't work like that right?
How come our house prices have not risen 100% since rates have fallen 100% since 2008, if they are that well correlated?
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Sorry basic economic fail. Property prices are dependent on affordability so higher rates get priced in via price reductions. So at worst they are neutral for cash buyers. Of course increased rates also increase supply as existing owners are forced to sell so that will add to the price reductions. Finally there the fact that once prices fall a cash buyers deposit gets them a lower LTV and so their repayments might actually end up lower than if rates had not risen and prices had not fallen.
Theres no downside to rising rates so long as you wait for the rates to be priced in before you buy.
Don't get me wrong. I am NOT saying this is a reason to buy. It would be the worst of both worlds to be stuck with big debt and high interest rates.
However, for the vast majority of buyers a 1% rise interest rate rise takes money out of your pocket than a 1% fall in house prices puts in your pocket.
I also think you are giving our housing too much credit as being rational.
Do we really see IR rises priced in to prices in any meaningful sense? Prospect of a rate rise is growing by the day, but no movement in prices.
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Your figures assume nil deposit. For some people a 33% fall in house prices might bring a £150k mortgage down to zero.
I agree that some people on the site are cash rich and will have large deposits.
However, the figures I quoted were pretty modest.
I have a £100k+ deposit, but I'd still expect to pay £200k+ in todays market down here commutable to London.
We can argue about the outliers such as us, but the fact remains that in most scenarios a 1% rise interest rate rise takes money out of your pocket than a 1% fall in house prices puts in your pocket.
And again, add on higher petrol, food costs, taxes, suppressed wages. The circumstance which people think will save us is good for nobody.
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On this site, people are baying for interest rate rises.
But lets work through an simple scenario:
You could buy today at something like:
£150k mortgage at 4% interest = ~ £6000 interest per year.
But say you don't buy and staunchly hold on for the impending crash. We eventually get our own way and achieve a 33% fall in values as a result of a high interest rate environment. You decide to buy, leaving you paying:
£100k mortgage at 8% interest = ~ £8000 interest per year.
i.e. higher payments and a net loss for you over any reasonable mortgage term.
The true picture can be even worse with a large mortgage and also with how they front load interest on a mortgage.
At least in this low interest rate environment you can be hammering capital, even if's a larger principle.
The same arguments can be applied to some of the other HPC desirables. People on here talk about job losses, inflation, cuts in benefits as being drivers for the HPC, but again, the money you eventually save on your house purchase might be paid back twice over when it costs hundreds of pounds extra per month to feed yourself and get yourself to work, and when you don't have a job and receive terrible benefits as a result.
Be careful what you wish for....
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I'd rather it helped new homes (increase supply) and put existing houses at a disadvantage (lower asking prices to compete)
Exactly. This makes the measure almost neutral for me as I have no interest in a POS shared ownership new build.
Still would rather they kept their money to themselves but could be worse.
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There is a small community of Thorium enthusiasts?
They need to get out more!
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This is one of the problems with the collective bearish HPC mindset.
People on this site see everything as insurmountable, where in reality, bad situations create new opportunities.
Necessity is the mother of invention and all that.
20 years ago we barely had industries such as IT, mobile phones, coffee shops, green energy, online marketing, and low cost travel. Who knows what is going to come up in the future and how many jobs it will create?
This is why it's so short sighted to load students with debt and cut research and infrastructure investment. We need to use our resources to make sure we own the next generation of industry.
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Why don't they get it?
Houses are too expensive because of government support.
Put the money to better use and watch the problem solve itself!
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I know someone who came in via one of these borderline colleges but then went to a real uni and now pays around £40k per year tax.
The ideal system would let in the best and the brightest, the most driven, the entrepreneurs etc. Locking it down too far isn't in the interests of the country.
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I'm on 22k and I'll be moving into a place for 575 per month, so just under half my take home pay.
It may seem mad, but I really struggled to find anywhere decent for under 525 in the SE.
It's far from linear.
You need to spend £500+ for somewhere habitable even if you earn £20k.
Bit if you earn £100k (5 times as much) you wouldn't need or want to spend even twice that much in rent.
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Maybe it's a mistake. They have made a few mistakes in their listings. This one for example has a 1 in front of the asking price: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-33207617.html
That post has just reignited my belief in a HPC.
£185,000 for that piece of crap.
Jesus wept!
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Relaxing planning rules in this way is obviously great from a HPC perspective, but it's a shame that you might see more character buildings and local businesses chopped up and sold off to BTL spivs in the process.
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Total rubbish , the uk does not use 60% of global LNG , it is a tiny player , the LNG is all used by places like Japan and Korea who use massive amounts compared to the uk as they have no pipeline gas imports, The uk was self sufficient in gas until a few years ago now imports the bulk of its needs from Norway and NL via pipeline, there are 3 LNG regassification plants to handle LNG imports, a tiny volume compared to Korea or Japan .
The uk used all its cheap gas, this LNG which we are looking to replace some of the lost North sea gas is very expensive, more expensive than pipeline gas from norway or gazprom and about 3 times the price of gas available in the US where they now have a glut of due to shale production.
Europe is soon to begin shale production, they are at an advanced stage in Poland and I have friends who are drilling there at the moment, there is also potential for smaller amounts in the UK in places like Blackpool but its a long way off.
The UK has been incredibly dumb in its planning for gas use, the regulator is in the pockets of the industry it is supposed to oversee and so all the decisions that have been made are to some degree corrupted and the UK will pay heavily for this.
Is there no limit to the combined knowledge of HPC?
I've been learning about the nuclear industry all week and now understand the British LNG industry.
It's like the Open University. Just taught by dudes with names like "catsick"!
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Once the 1995 yen/dollar low was taken out, this kind of action wasn't too surprising. Lots of technical reasons, but I think loads of derivative positions must have been triggered.
Back to 79.2 now, so all the hallmarks of emotion and machine led buying for a few hours. The Nikkei made a nice recovery throughout the day as well.
Nikkei futures were 1000 points down before open. PPT in action.
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Kyoto, I have to ask who you have a picture of as your avatar!
It's just the Mrs
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Markets are going to be on one overnight. 900 points down on IG Index.
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How come everyone on this thread and indeed around the whole Internet seems to be experts on nuclear power?
With so many closet nuclear physicists I wonder why our economy is in the doldrums...?
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When and how is this nightmare going to end
Does anyone have an answer to this? Even if it's really ******in hot, surely passing sea water in there for 3 days takes the edge off no?
Is it getting better just with the passing of time?
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You must have a very unfortunate portfolio, or be invested in Japan itself.
Western markets aren't off that much, the FTSE is back down to where it was at the start of this year. Big deal. I'm still confident my dividend income this year will be at least 5% bigger than last year.
He panics and sells on the dips. I must have read the same story 5 times this year.
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Oh man... my losses are absolutely eye-watering. Continue to hold for 2-3 more years and hope things pick up by then.
Markets being absolutely hammered right now.
God you make me want to cry! Give it up man it's obviously not for you.
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The woman is not being unreasonable - that's a right bloody con!
Having said that, would love to see it more widespread. That would keep people realistic in their initial asking prices.
Uk Stagflation - Panorama
in House prices and the economy
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Ive never seen anyone make that link between weak sterling and inflation, on here let alone in mainstream media. And yet surely that is the largest cause?