Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. There are plenty of people on here who aren't naturally focussed on financial matters, but have worked things out for themselves. Why should there be any sympathy for people who don't do that - it's the biggest purchase of your life and people treat it like going to Argos and getting a new lawnmower. Their problem if it goes wrong, no one made them do it. Although the ones I will actively feel schadenfreude about are the boomers who are still highly leveraged after 30 years of free money.
  2. A little timeline from stuff that's stuck in my mind over the last year or so: summer 13 - HTB2 announced: Almost immediately "rumours" emerge that Bank are unhappy with it. - prob as a hedge/attempt to kick issue into the grass, the gov't give BoE mandate a review it , but on a long timeline, 12+ months (?) - But the political machine works well, lots of positive stories - remember the monthly stats at the start complete with anecdotes of happy HTBers? Remember Osborne saying some horseshit about "down the road in Eccles, decent people with hard working jobs in the mill can't buy a house" . Etc - Where i live, asking prices back at peak levels early 2014 - "rumours" that banks will be forced to stress test 30% price falls on property by BoE - FCA MMR comes out. Small backlash led by VIs which quickly peters out. - Where I live, asking prices are now up 20% on peak prices (London having experienced 20% population growth in that time, right?) within the last month - senior BoE official saying that housing market is the biggest risk to financial stability - soon after, Osborne reiterates that the BoE have the powers to deal with it - and then "rumours" that Osborne is not in fact a lover of HPI after all - OECD survey puts UK property at 30% overvalued (30% eh? See early 2014!) - Carney explicitly mentions measures against housing market at FPC, whilst hedging by saying that the underlying problem can't be solved by BoE, and anyway it can't target geographical regions. - Lloyds makes a move, targeting a specific geographical region. Pretty obvious to me that "they" all know a crash is inevitable and is positioning as 1) the person who warned about a crash and 2) the person who can not be blamed for actually causing a crash. What a surprise that the fall guys are being lined up as individual banks and the MMR. Acceleration of the rhetoric suggests that the feeling in the corridors is that it will fall over sooner rather than later. As usual the really important thing for these people is to ensure they position themselves properly. That is being done at the moment hence the various back and forths between gov't and BoE over the last few days. I think Bonfire of the Greed is coming and perhaps sooner than we think ! Haven't been this optimistic since '09. Popcorn yet?
  3. Yep, that. Although I guess one angle might be that if the UK public, with its tradition of extremely safe and predictable voting, are willing to accept lunatics just to make a point, then the whole shithouse might just be on fire.
  4. I'm one but have been feeling pretty stupid for the past couple of years and trying to convince myself to buy, thankfully I've never been able to find a sensible argument to get involved with property. But in trying to find the alternative case and make sure I'm not just stuck in my views, I've been speaking with more property bulls and more "normal" people rather than coming on here - as you can imagine I've taken a fair bit of stick during this process (just the other day my father in law asked how it felt to be "proved comprehensively wrong"! Cheers man). Did get to the point of really questioning my judgment and also came on here much less - generally just to lurk and get a bit of moral support (which the likes of the indefatigable Bruce Banner have provided amply !) Starting to hope again now ..... let's hope the light at the end of the tunnel isn't a big train !
  5. exactly. My guess is that behind the scenes there is a lot of discussion about cutting into the green belt a little. They wouldn't be able to say much before the election but all parties (except the UKIP fckwits judging by their "manifesto") will be thinking that a) the current mood has changed and b] that longer term the balance of voting power will be with the younger generation who will hardly be pro HPI. Zeitgeist is changing, people, it's gonna be beautiful
  6. I grew up not a million miles from here and wish all the overseas investors the very best of luck, they will need it. Fantastic piece though - interesting how it's only the left wing press that give a shit about what is happening.
  7. Hope they and the main sold price indices go up strongly this month so there is nothing to let the FPC off the hook in June. They will presumably take any excuse they can not to act so let's hope that none is provided.
  8. Agree that we need fundamental change, very strongly disagree that voting for UKIP would be a good idea in this context
  9. From what I've read they're worse than the tories - specific pledges to not build on green belt land etc
  10. Fair play on the points about others' opinions, i've been a bear since 2008, wrong so far, always have looked for the bull case but never convinced myself of it. It's good to hear different opinions. Re the quoted part - if not a bubble this demonstrates a pretty disorderly market, Where I live in south essex/east london borders asking prices have shot up in the last 6 months (in some cases 20%+) to levels which are beyond even a piss take . Am also now seeing a few 10% drops albeit still to a highly elevated level. I wonder though if a few of these drops start getting sold, the more absurd asking prices get chopped down, indicators turn downwards for a few months, and it starts looking a bit crashy. Could get interesting then in a market which is now clearly being dangerously accelerated by expectation of future rises / fear of missing the boat.
  11. Or Carney has outflanked him. Saw quite a bit of analysis today to the effect that it wouldn't make a difference cos of HTB2. Not sure about that - funding for lending is a cheap credit facility, htb is just risk sharing and from what i read in the press the banks are well aware of the added political risk they would take on if HTB went wrong, they're not stupid enough to think the government would take any responsibility . So funding for lending must have more effect on the cost of credit. That said, like Red Knight said it's hard to see why Carney would have done it if it was going to have a significant effect on housing so we prob shouldn't get our hopes up too much. A good signal at least.
  12. Wow, on that salary he could afford a one bedroom flat in Hackney. There's not many who can say they're in that position. He must feel so lucky
  13. I've heard the same anecdotally. It would be very funny if the net result of HTB was to make HPC more mainstream. The Mail's already on it...
  14. Very interesting comments. Increasingly from what I hear and read people are seeing that there is just not enough money. Hindsight is easy but perhaps it should have been more obvious to those of us who've been wrong since 2008 that it would such take a long time for the general population to catch on that low interest rates only hold up the inevitable. The money isn't there. Help to buy, "we're only a small island" etc - will become minor details if that realisation occurs.
  15. I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here.
  16. i've tried running the whole income multiple argument many times. If people understood it no one would make the cretinous statements about prices always rising, and they would also understand about real-life affordability. But the whole thing is a bit too much like analysis, and why would you do that on the biggest and longest term investment you will ever make?
  17. The real problem is that there aren't enough 125% mortgages available so people can't do up the homes they buy. There was a very forward-looking bank that used to do this, I can't remember its name just now but I'm pretty sure it has done well over the years. So I for one am glad the government is starting to address the real issues but they need to go much further - it is clearly a market failure that the hard working, aspirational families can't get a new kitchen and conservatory immediately on moving in to their nice houses.
  18. Spot on and a similar age too. Know enough about other places to know that the grass isn't always greener. But getting very, very, p-ssed off with working for absolutely no reward, while these disgusting creatures crow about helping aspiration. They will be found out eventually but we'll end up paying for it anyway. Like you, I cling to the sentiment that that ultimately we are better than these hateful sociopaths. But that faith isn't half being tested.
  19. We've been mugged off in the short/medium term. Those buying will be mugged off in the medium/long-term. Boomers (aka the greatest financial geniuses the world has ever known) are laughing. Except the surprisingly high percentage who are still highly leveraged. Still...at least there's no house price bubble, and the government are doing something about the "market failure" that is crippled banks being unwilling to further risk their balance sheet on high risk loans made against historically high asset valuations. That was a terrible market failure, I just can't understand how it came about. Very foresightful of Osborne to see it and in the process to show how much he cares about us all. Somewhere a clock is ticking. But f*ck knows whether it's one minute to midnight or six thirty PM. I have given up caring really
  20. I'm with you, Count. I thought at the time HTB was announced that if the measures didn't have the necessary levels of shock and awe, but gained lots of publicity to the effect that they were positive for prices, we might just see a spike in supply, coupled with no real change in demand (proper demand that is, not the "but lots of people are registering with estate agents" guff that we see trumpeted by some). I had previously thought they were going to extend the 20% equity loan to all sales and thought this was a game changer, as it's interest free for 5 years and many would have only seen the price of the house as the 75% that they were paying on Day 1. But this part wasn't extended (and if it was, it would presumably be a pretty big balance sheet committment compared to the guarantee? As to the guarantee, I can't see how it changes the maths for a prospective buyer , except perhaps by giving them access to slightly better rates. IMO a lot more is needed to make things affordable and sustainable. Something like the 20% loan perhaps, the one that he housebuilers all advertise as if it means you only pay 80% of the house's value, the one that I'm sure was going to be extended to all sales but now seems to have dropped..... So interesting times could be ahead and perhaps not the result everyone expects. But what do I know, I've predicted four of the last zero crashes since we STR in 2008. A final thing I've noticed after not coming on here for a while - there are a hell of a lot of bears on here that have pretty much given up now, including some true stalwarts! What's that adage about the last bear turning bull again ? ;]
  21. It's not a discount, you'd just owe the same amount to 2 lenders instead of 1 ?
  22. To be fair to the Telegraph they have some views on the other side too, Andrew Oxlade who is I think another personal finance reporter is consistently bearish, and there was a main business editorial slating the Help to Buy scheme the other week. Cowie's fixation with this site is a bit weird though - this is about the 4th mention recently tacked onto the end of some report about a meaningless monthly data point. Strange that people with an alternative view have got under his skin so much. Although if he uses this site as a proxy for some of the comments below his articles I could see why he isn't our friend
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.