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MississippiJohnHurt

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Everything posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. I think this too. I often try to look for the bull case on property to counter my views and this is the best bull argument at the moment. Not sure what the average pension pot is though...perhaps it might affect the smaller end of the market....e.g. products are put together selling units in multiple BTLs to spread risk , 'guaranteed yield', managed etc . There's plenty of new build flats in the major cities to soak up (and 3/4 of Ashford . Also think if too many people started buying single BTLs and letting them directly, the Mail etc would very quickly be full of horror stories ! Yields are hopeless.
  2. i don't see it at the moment, currency crises generally happen to outliers and many major currencies are in the same basic position, high indebtedness and low growth. In terms of who might become an outlier, my guess is that there are other major currencies more exposed..... the Aussies because their economy is basically just an option on continued Chinese growth and suffers from even more ridiculous house prices than ours in relative terms (and the same issues with inward investment that would reverse quickly in a crisis) Japanese because they've been the first to try the full on monetary and fiscal Keynesian / Krugmanite treatment, and it appears to be failing and the Euro for obvious political reasons (although very hard to call as if a political crisis triggered a sharp decline in the Euro, it would help the peripheral states and ease the political pressure a bit. My guess is that it would need something seismic like an anti Euro party winning an outright majority in one of the major states).
  3. no, i am in the 'everyone has responsibility for their own actons' camp, and would have zero sympathy for anyone who had bought in at recent levels. But the point is that if someone had the opposite view to me, i wouldn't automatically call them a VI or estate agent etc. I also share your frustration about seeing prices fly away, and people who have made loads of money by an accident of birth going round thinking they are financial geniuses. I have found this site to be a support at times when everyone in my 'real' life was being quite vocal about how wrong i have been. you have to remember that the more entrenched we are, the more we get confirmation bias about what is really going on. I think there are various quote good reasons to have amended a super bearish view over the last few years, although on balance i remain of the view that there will be a reckoning. But who can ever know.
  4. Hotairmail a VI? Leave it out. I've been on here since 2008 and he is one of the most balanced and knowledgeable posters. Just because some people have come to a different view (or have tried to explain teh motivations of those with a different view) doesn't make them a "VI" or "EA" or "Hamish" etc etc. It's the same with Mobfant - he comes on here with a slightly different view but clearly prepared to debate and listen to others' views, and suddenly he's getting called a troll and VI etc. The value (if any) of this site is that it presents a different view to the mainstream, but we should be confident enough in our own views not to get upset when someone else has a different one, no?
  5. why would the other side of the trade be so eager to lock in today's revenue in a rising market ? Not advice etc just a personal view etc
  6. if by strikingly close you mean 22% different, i agree in any case it seems quite unlikely that the entire population of English people living in Scotland are Tories? Still, if you had used this as part of the last 'debate' between Salmond and Darling, you would have got a great cheer...
  7. Brilliant way of presenting it for the facebook/mse mindset. We're all 3x richer than in 2006 or demand is 3x higher? Heh, Some huge asking price drops ahead.
  8. If it is true, it's a phenomenon of the last 2 years only, the fact that prices far outstripped rents has been one of the key bear arguments about property. Bit different this time, asking prices must have gone up by 25-30% in the last year where I live, but also rents, perhaps 15% up on low supply. But they stayed broadly flat between 2003 and a couple of years back. I tend to think that the last couple of years is a reflection of new entrant BTLers who have to price high to try and boost their pitiful yields. I'm renting in a particular SE house price hotspot in the Essex/E London borders and no one i know who's been renting the same place for a while is getting a rent increase. I'm paying the same rent for the last 3 years.
  9. Maybe the scheme will end up being known as HTNE
  10. This is exactly the combination we want As for those on this thread wanting the message to get out more widely....don't worry, it will. But by then it will be far too late. In fact, that will be the buy signal !
  11. Not sure what is wrong with this particular policy - looking at people's actual spending habits to see if they can afford a mortgage seems pretty sound really. What's the downside to it in your view?
  12. I've been wondering the same thing. They're probably too scared of UKIP for it to be true perhaps. I think maybe things just got way out of hand quicker than everyone expected , and that would explain the actors' various manoeuvring over the last few months. Obviously they can't admit it in public but down here (SE/London) everyone has a tale of a house going for 30/40% more than a year ago, this won't be lost on them and is obviously going to pop. They are slightly at an advantage cos the atmosphere around this latest boom has been different, the general public seem pretty jaded with HPI I think. Maybe the boomers will be largely philosophical if 40% gets taken off something they've made hundreds of percent on over the years? If it means their kids can get a house ? The foreign investors in London are no political concern either.
  13. It's this, isn't it.... All the muppets who talk about supply driving London prices never stop to think about what they're actually saying. They're saying that London population is growing by 20% + annually (and that's being conservative considering the price rises I'm seeing over the last 12 months). They are plainly wrong. A lot of people are going to have their **** handed to them in London and the SE. I think it's very interesting how the market now seems to be driven by "normals" now. Surely if it was all supply driven, the smart money would be all over it.
  14. This strategy would misfire badly if the potential buyer was a HPCer....to me it would just scream "MEW, desperate seller"
  15. No, my timing has been quite poor. But I am not looking for sympathy, all the calls I've made I stand by, right or wrong. So should people who make different calls. People should clearly work it out for themselves.
  16. Given that investors are a far more fickle and mobile group , I think is actually a very positive anecdote. Yields are already getting v compressed in London and I don't reckon rents have far to go either, everyone I know in London who's renting is paying well above that magic 35% of take home pay that makes them classed as "stretched". Generally it's more like 40/50% in my experience. Hardly conducive to yield growth. Last of the mug money ?
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