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Everything posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. I'm guessing this is a wind up but I'm gonna bite anyway.... 1. more STRs/repossessions? 2. Says who? Oh yeah, John Prescott. 3. What do you mean? 4. And all the banks are rushing to pass it on aren't they. Even if they did, it doesnt matter how cheap the rate is if people can't afford more debt. And even if people could afford it, which they can't, would they want to take debt on when there is such fear in the job market ? I think the interest rate thing is a total red herring as far as housing is concerned. It's quite simple really; based on every fundamental, housing is massively overpriced. Good luck on jumping back in though, let us know how you get on if you're not on a wind up
  2. Def, I think that whatever else happens as a result of current events, the power shift from west to east is a given. In the short term I think it will be brutally hard for everyone, but it could take America (and Britain) a lot longer to recover than others. Could be the end of the dollar as the world's interchangeable currency if the Yen can stay relatively strong , and China can do something about their dollar foreign reserves (no idea how though without murdering the price, they've got over $2 Trillion from memory). The Euro seems like one logical replacement but I'm not sure about whether politically the EU could withstand a major depression. It would have disparate effects on the EU countries and there'll be a lot of temptation for individual member states to start acting independently to sort out their own positions. I bet they're very pleased the UK didn't enter though now, with the way we're placed for the forthcoming fun. I can't see any other outcome than the pound being totally, totally ******ed in the short, med and long terms.
  3. Where does it say he was on six figures? For all you know he was a helpdesk guy who lived within his means. It's very patronising to make such quick judgements about people, it's a bit like the whole "sheeple" thing. Whole swathes of the population get put into a little box called "sheeple" by others who think they're superior because they have some savings/sold their house/don't trust the government or the mainstream media. Also just on this specific example - you say you have 25k in savings. By the sounds of it this guy might have had something similar (it says he survived for a number of months on his savings). Put yourself in the same position - if you lived in the US, so had no welfare safety net, and you lost your job, and couldn't find another one within say a year or two, are you saying there's absolutely no way that you could ever find yourself in the same position as this guy?
  4. I bet he's gutted. As for the rest of your post, I'd just say you're squeezing a lot of assumptions out of a short article...how do you know anything about this person and his circumstances, you have just decided on a load of facts (single, earning 6 figures, profligate, etc etc), and then judged him on the basis of these made up facts! Anyway never mind, opinions are like arseholes , and all that
  5. yeah, probably. I have had a crap morning It just amazed me that people can spout so much ******** and bile over one poor sod who's fallen on hard times .... and struck me that more and more nasty bastards are popping above the parapet to laugh at others' misfortune. I was a lurker on here for quite a while before joining and I'm not sure it was always like this. But anyway perhaps they were joking or making some witty, subtle, post modern point that I missed... I'll leave others to judge from the comments above.... Peace out
  6. was Buik talking about the markets though? Cos the equity market is often seen as being 6-12 months ahead of the real economy, so buik might have actually meant that recovery will start in 2010 in the real economy. I don't actually agree but it's not as ludicrous as saying the economy will start getting back to normal next year....
  7. My god there are some nasty, smug people on this site. There's a line between schadenfreude over people who've displayed excessive hubris and nasty, thoughtless enjoyment of others' misery. And it is quite often crossed on this site. How about some ******ing empathy for a fellow person who has fallen on hard times through no obvious fault of his own (a brief read of the article shows that he did actually have savings to fall back on). I bet if this guy was a steelworker or a miner he'd get some sympathy but because you've decided (completely arbitarily) that he's well paid, and more importantly because he works in an office - must be a corrupt ******* then - suddenly he spends all his money on drugs and hookers? Get a grip FFS. I wonder how people like you are able to do anything on a morning, as it must take quite some time to emerge from the pool of bile you reside in. @ Greg G - you asked for a solution to helping people out should there be armageddon and you need to share some of your precious tinned food. How about just shooting the lot of them? That will sort it out, and at the same time teach them to plan better for the end of the world. These sheeple need to be taught a lesson mate - imagine spending your time actually living life and not planning for an armageddon, what sort of idiot would do that?
  8. I haven't read all this thread but I'm sure I'm not alone in being completely perplexed by the interest this has garnered, unless it can be explained by voyeurism over how rich establishment types live and conduct their "friendships". My understanding of the basic facts is that some rich establishment types have had a row about establishment etiquette and money, leading to some trouble for George Osbourne, who in reality probably did solicit donations from this oligarch , just like Labour probably have solicited donations from other sources they aren't supposed to. I don't suppose the Lib Dems are strangers to doing similar either. Perhaps this would be a real story if all concerned weren't cut from the same rotten scheming corrupt cloth and we actually had a choice to replace them with people who give a shit. But every party in this story is exactly the ******ing same so the details about yachts, Oxford alumni, "codes of silence", dinners with billionairres etc are superfluous and designed to titilate people who don't live in that world and can not possibly relate to it.
  9. Deflation? I would have thought Gold is the safe haven in an inflationary environment so in a widespread deflation it is as vulnerable as other asset classes? Personally I think deflation is going to be the outcome of recent events although obv it's debatable. Maybe this is one indication.
  10. heh I thought RBS looked cheap at 180 so I better not call the bottom this time. Personally don't think it is yet anyway, I think we saw the big crash last week but reckon it will slide for another 6-12 months from here. Some sectors have still got a long way to go yet, retail, travel, . And some bombed out stuff will start giving out too (inexplicably, dogs like Barratt and Taylor Wipeout still exist?!) Agree that the Nikkei could be oversold in the short term though, it got slaughtered this week!
  11. saw this on FT alphaville: this guy Andrew Lahde was one of the first to call the current situation in 2007, and made a 1000% return betting against subprime assets last year. He's now dropping out altogether and his parting letter is a great rant against everyone , bankers, politicians, corporations. He also gives some really interesting thoughts on reform of the political system generally following this crisis. Interesting read.... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/17...s-out-in-style/
  12. 1 or 2 percent I presume this chap has been holidaying on Mars for the last 6 months. I also like the way he thinks that small houses will be totally immune from the downturn because "people want them". Another total misunderstanding of demand as is so often seen amongst the housing bulls.
  13. OK. Just a question though - why would someone throw themselves in front of a tyrannosauraus "in order" for someone else to steal all their stuff? And a wider question, where is the altruism in throwing yourself in front of a tyrannosaurus? Would that not be stupidity rather than altruism? I think you'll find that throughout history, humans have adapted and their behaviour changed according to the situation. So if you have a time machine and went back to one of the large Roman cities, you might have looked around and seen similar behaviour to what you see now, greed, debauchery and materialism. If, however you went back to a peasant village in medieval England, or to Stalingrad in the middle of WW2, you would see people working desperately hard just in order to survive and really not being too worried about "shiny things" which they were "genetically programmed" to want. Your pet theory shoves everybody in the world, throughout history, in every situation, into the same box. It therefore does not stand up to even the most basic scrutiny. Surely the reason humans have survived for so long, and been so successful, is our ability to adapt behaviour to a given situation.
  14. What's the analysis on them figures, are you pricing in WW3 or something?
  15. i'm going for a low of 3100 in late 09 or early 10. I think that's an optimistic view but hey, i'm feeling optimistic
  16. i reckon we've got quite a way to the bottom of the FTSE yet, might see the mother of all bull traps first though. Perhaps last week might have been the big crash, the 1929 style event, think it could be a slower sinking ship from here on. Guess for the very bottom: 3100 in mid 2010!
  17. No, totally agree. HBOS will disappear anyway if Lloyds goes through, and the discount to the Lloyds offer price narrowed a lot today so maybe the market is more certain of that deal now. In the short term I think RBS share price will settle very low, I guess realistically the hope for the taxpayer has to be that in 10-15 years the govt can start thinking about selling out again. Don't know much about this Hester but apparently he did a lot to detoxify the Abbey, he's certainly going to have his work cut out doing similar in this environment, and balancing it with having the taxpayer as his number 1 shareholder. The papers, broadsheets but Daily Mail in particular I think will be ALL OVER RBS. So much political capital to be made from many potential angles. It will be a nightmare to run and will inevitably end up having a jumbled business model. Coupled with a ban on dividends, I'm not sure why the shares would be attractive to anyone for 5 years plus. Wouldn't be surprised to see them get down to 20p ish, although the market always has the capacity to surprise as the Northern Rock share price last year showed... EDIT: spelling.
  18. This thread has been cracking me up and is one of the reasons I joined the site rather than staying as a lurker. I can't add much more except to say, this guy wouldn't make a poker player would he. Talk about setting yourself up for a stitch up!! The other thing that makes me laugh is that these jokers bought 900 houses in the same town. Great diversification guys. They have broken every rule in the investment book (even I would think in the sensible landlord book), and deserve to get judged by their business model. Which seems to be: prices of property will always go up, so buy lots. I bet there were a few Tulip heads who thought the same. Not usually one to laugh at others' misfortune, but as these people have helped to price out 900 first time buyers, ****** em. Look forward to seeing how it's going in a year's time. They should be a good way through the "orderly sell off" by then
  19. I'm not sure the collapse of LloydsBOS would matter that much now? Sure, the banks' share prices will collapse tomorrow, but it will be based on certainty of major dilution, rather than fear about banks' prospects. The recapitalisation will give certainty to the sector and share prices will eventually settle (RBS at 25p anyone?!) I think we're ready to move onto the next stage now; unfortunately I think that means years of low growth and taxpayers' direct exposure to further shocks. Unbelieveable events we're seeing now, truly astonishing
  20. wouldn't be a surprise at all, why would Lloyds want to go on the same terms when the government is a majority shareholder. Deal on, deal off, who really cares now when we have this extraordinary spectacle emerging, the government owning most major banks!! One questions remains though: Why the ****** is Hornby still at HBOS? Get the arrogant incompetent **** out now and with him, the pitifully weak chairman Stevenson. Unbelievable how they can still be there after leading the Halifax to the brink of ruin. And not forgetting James Crosby, friend of the government and FSA board member. It was his strategy that Hornby inherited in 2006.
  21. I've been wondering a lot about this lately. I'm 29 and have never experienced a recession before, and I think what's coming is going to be a lot more than just a recession. In my locality (West Essex/East London), the pubs are full of weekend millionaires in their early to late twenties. You know the sort, dressed in designer clobber, driving round in BMWs and 4x4s, spending a ton of money on beer and, err, other recreational substances at the weekend. I would guess that in the main, the average wage of these people is 25-30k a year and the average spend the same or more. This is coupled with a general lack of interest in either history, or the world around. It's the ultimate culture of short termism and consumerism, we've been brought up in an environment where buying things on the never never is the absolute norm. From credit cards, to store cards, to car loans, to getting ridiculous levels of mortgage to buy that "dream home", people my age are used to having what they want, when they want. I know someone actually pays his gas bills on a credit card, having spunked all his cash on disposable crap or beer. And this person still finds money for 2 week holidays in various far flung places .... or should I say finds credit for it. I think that adjustment from this mentality is going to be hugely painful. In my generation we also have an additional blight, the widespread use of cocaine. In my experience, it is absolutely endemic in the suburbs as much as in the cities and is used without stigma when people are drinking.There's a lot more people dependent on it than is reported. This will exacerbate the pain of any downturn as dependencies and addictions get worse in times of stress, and are real barriers for people's ability to react to changing situations. I think this is going to be a a major, major problem for my generation. In terms of how we'll cope, I wouldn't be surprised to see severe backlashes against the government, bankers, anyone who can be blamed so people don't have to look at themselves and judge their own behaviour. Although, I'm cynical enough about the abilities and determination of my generation to think this will be more in the form of increased crime and contempt for society, rather than in organised unrest designed to engender real change. But unsavoury political ends could really exploit this mix of anger and apathy, as history has shown. I have no real faith in the current 20 something generation to see past something like that. Right I'm depressing myself now. Very interested to hear others' views! Perhaps an optimistic one or two would be good!
  22. Yep, that's exactly what I was trying to say but you put it much better. Where we are now is indeed an "overwhelming force" imo and means the choice really is between deflation, or hyperinflation.... I don't blame people for assuming that they'll try and inflate out of it, and even seeing the logic in that; greenspan did it for years - but he was never faced with a deflationary force with the power of today's. Trying to inflate now would lead quickly to catastrophic currency runs... bad bad bad, mass hysteria time. And I think (perhaps absurdly) that there is enough knowledge amongst the regulators and politicians to know that. I bloody well hope I'm right anyway! @ Mr Nice: I'd point to previous asset bubbles....the only real solution is deflation to a level where confidence returns/ a bottom is reached ... inflation just attempts to prolong the unsustainable and always gets found out that way. In your example, who would trust the "new pound" any more than the discredited old pound? It would quickly go the same way (see the Mississippi Scheme....)
  23. Personally I reckon 10-15 years , deflation at first and then painfully flat for a long time. I think it could indeed by pretty grim ....
  24. Hi all, first post on the site. Trying to STR and have got hooked on this site, really interesting mix of views on here. Guess the inflation/deflation question is one of the key ones in trying to plan through these crazy times.... I agree with others that deflation is happening already. I think it's really too late in the game to try and inflate out of where we are, without it being so obvious that it would lead to a collapse in the currency almost immediately (6-12 months before the wages in a wheelbarrow stage?) I hope that politicians know this from history, it never works, not when time is so limited, it's not possible to be subtle enough. As Robert Mugabe, or the Weimar Republic would probably testify. I suppose you can't ever rule out governments' ability to ****** things up, but one thing they can't do is control confidence, it will only take the collapse of some household name corporates (which will happen by end Nov I'd think) before the "uninformed" section of the public get to the same place as those who've been following this closely. When that happens, there won't be much demand for mortgages, equity withdrawal or loans to buy a shiny new X5, and attempts to engender that demand would be disastrous in the extreme. So I reckon we're going to see the mother of all corrections now. I hope so in a way as, although it's going to be painful and probably long, it's actually what the economy needs. As ever the stock market is leading the way, FTSE nadir sub 2000 points anyone?
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