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MississippiJohnHurt

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Everything posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. He shd maybe have a chat with the fund manager from one of the property funds about the drawbacks of pricing a property asset daily. It's magnificent,but it's not price discovery.....
  2. If that Standard article is representative, then a crash was already underway well before Brexit. Looks pretty sharp too. Maybe too early to tell - they will have cherry picked for the article. But interesting that it's not just new builds with those reductions.
  3. This pretty much sums up my experience too....the facebook thing has been almost comical, with people I know for a fact who have no interest or knowledge about politics suddenly becoming authorities on this question. And the EU itself is now second only to the court of King Arthur I see. I have stayed well out of it. I put it down to the same things - most of my extended circle are from the se and doing pretty well out of globalisation. They are also not used to struggling or to things not going their way. And they are displaying a disturbing lack of empathy and regard for democracy along the way. Im staying well out of the debate on there but I think the whole thing is rather shrill and shallow and wont last. There doesn't seem to be much of a clamour to actually do anything except abuse people who have the wrong viewpoint. Another thing will be along soon to divert the echo chamber's attention.
  4. I feel pretty similar. It is incredibly dispiriting to work really hard and go backwards all the time. I have been thinking i might go down to 3 days a week for a while, it doesn't seem worth making the effort with the way things are at the moment (until 2025 if RK is to be believed). Was really positive that it was the start of a big correction in london, but even that seems to have stalled. Pretty much out of patience now.
  5. Your posts always sound very supercilious to me - if you aren't explaining why urban living is better than country living, you are dishing out advice on how strangers should spend their time. Entrenched views on a web forum ? Thanks man, I never knew. In the case of HPC I don't think it is surprising, but other views are entertained....there are large threads setting out the bull case and debating it, months of man hours spent debating the merits of various commodities. What we haven't ever really needed though is a patronising tw-t offering life tips.
  6. Undeniably , we have been wrong from 2008 to now. The question is whether we were wrong because it really is different this time and there is a reason that something which appears to bw totally unsustainable will sustain. I think of myself as a pretty open minded bloke and I am happy to admit I am wrong on something, and given the importance of the housing question to day to day life I have spent considerable time trying to find a reasoned view for the status quo continuing. But I haven't been able to find anything credible (and f--- me i have tried). I have come to the view that in an ultra low interest rate environment, the long term loan to income level is likely to stay higher to reflect lower servicing costs. However I also thought that the market would quite quickly arb this out, as sellers tried to maximise prices, which would cause volatile and unsustainable price rises. Both seem to have happened in the last 5 years. Looking at sustainability using loan to income seems a pretty useful and objective way to look at things. Its easy to see if you plot the servicing costs of debt at a realistic rate to your income, and then tweak the loan to income to 6, 7, 8 times. By doing that you can see that there is indeed an affordability ceiling when wages are static and prices are rising. So anyone who views that it will just keep rising absent wage inflation (actually it would have to be unprecedented, huge wage inflation to bring it back in line with the growth of the last few years) is wrong in my view - the maths simply don't work. I also do not buy the supply argument, as I don't see why rents would not have followed house prices if supply was the overriding issue. So do I think that prices will return to the long term 3.5 x salary ? No, because i think rates will stay very low for a very long time. But do I think there will be a correction? Yes, because loan to incomes are hugely out of whack. i think the correction will he much more concentrated on the south east and london and is going to be pretty large. I think the longer term average LTI might end up being say 4, 4.5 x income. But any higher than this ans you are feeling the pinch at any realistic interest rate - just plug your own numbers into excel for 5 minutes and you will see. All just my views and reflective of a clear south east /london bias to my experience.
  7. I really hope so. I have had enough of being told, as Hiace says below , that 'this is the reality, get in the real world etc'. Being seen as stupid by friends when all I have been doing is trying to look out for my family. I know of at least two so called friends and one father in law who think I have secret financial problems and am trying to cover it up with hpc views. My father in law once asked what addiction I have which means I have no money. All this while I am in the top 1% of uk earners with no debt, no credit card, no never never car finance. Sometimes I really need this place ! It is good to know there are at least some like minded people. Anyway - onwards and downwards, hopefully
  8. Just catching up with this thread.....rofl at some of the pics As for 118, I have long suspected it is a black op controlled by an invisible hpc hand. Clearly Ghost Bird is Gary Dully though in that parallel world. And being Gary Dully must be a whole lot of fun . well at least when the lightshades are clear of y fronts
  9. Could indicate a sudden lack of BTL chumps buying off plan.
  10. Totally agree...and the BoE appear to as well, given that the last stress test modelled a 35% hpc and none of the main banks failed. Hardly a "cats and dogs living together" scenario.
  11. Totally agree - it is is clearly not true to say that a vote to leave is brainless. I think there are good arguments on both sides, but what swings my vote is the contempt for democracy that has always been shown by the elites who run the project. It comes through strongly in the way the remain campaign operates. Posts like Roy's above - with its assumption that anyone considering brexit is a stupid racist - is indicative of success in what the remain camp intend: to quell any proper debate.(edit to say sorry for continuing the off topic theme. The crash seems to be taking care of itself for now though jusging by that FT article the other day )
  12. I think it is turning,just in the opposite direction to Ros....the government seems pretty comfortable with overtly and publicly targetting btl now, as the on the record quote in the article Ros mentions proves. Of course silly old Ros is too busy getting emotional about someone allegedly using mean words to see the real danger....a calm statement from the government confirming that btlers should expect some pain is a very ominous sign for your average highly leveraged chancer.
  13. My name is Yield D'Eath and I am a believer in the great house price crash of 2037.
  14. Agree with all of that. The twitter guy's view seems pretty over engineered and as you say is dependent on the number of renters being inelastic as conditions change. The most illuminating thing about it could be the lumping of renters into one box called 'poor people who will never be able to buy in any economic conditions'
  15. What was that old saying - it's like being mauled by a sheep. Still, no publicity is bad publicity Btw did your new twitter chum understand the rather fatal flaw in arguing that most landlords don't have a mortgage and that leveraged landlords dont have pricing power, in the context of his wider point that clause 24 will lead to rent increases?
  16. Well they are not making any more land and all house and rent price increases are irrefutably caused by supply, so according to my model, this simply cannot be.
  17. Haha brilliant ... I thought we will see a lot more internecine fighting as the realities hit home, but I didn't expect rumblings of regicide just yet ! Got to hand it to Busta though. He has some chutzpah and his own large pool of morons.
  18. As always it is wise to discount for mark aleander's crass hyperbole, but if his statement below is even partially true, he won't be the only one appealing a loss to the Supreme Court. "Before this move the Building Society was losing millions every year. This rate rise secured their solvency and returned their failing business back into a profitable position."
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