MississippiJohnHurt

Fair enough, we differ. The key thing for me is bank balance sheets. They are the providers of capital and they will continue to be very conservative for a number of years. I think the rest is just fluff really. (Don't get me wrong, I accept that stimulus has softened the landing a bit, I think this was all it was ever intended to do. But it won't save the housing market from the necessary correction, IMO). Re your point about banks, I don't think there are enough people capable of buying in cash to make a significant difference. I don't even think it was the main factor in the recent rises in the indices.

I bring you good news: the government can't actually rig a game this big.

Good luck if you are investing on the assumption that housing doesn't behave like a normal market. The Nationwide 25 yr graph looks like a pretty normal boom/bust cycle. As for how the correction occurs, I suspect the next few years are a story of wage deflation. That should give things a push along.

Things like this are good if they mean that energy policy gets onto the political and public agenda.

They're only doing well cos of all the tin foil hatters buying tents, camping stoves, water purification tabs, etc

That'sright. Exactly what the Reds who cared said at the time this went through. This all goes back to Martin Edwards cashing in, although football clubs are generally just the playthings of some rich man or another (honourable exception of Barca, from those I can think of) . And although we hate L*verpool, you won't find many Reds laughing at their financial plight, cos it's there but for the grace of Eric, and all that. I do sometimes wonder what would happen if a few of the really big clubs went bust. Would fans start to demand more of a say in the running of their club in exchange for providing all of its revenue? Probably not but it's a nice thought.

I think this might sum up one of the key differences between the bull and bear arguments. I think that buyers tend to have the advantage in most transactions. I think the race/desire to "get into the property market" is a product of the last 10 years, and is not necessarily indicative of future direction. But I do accept that many people do swallow this crap about missing the boat, so there's some weight in the argument that people get pressured into buying a house (of course, taking decisions based on pressure is not usually the best course, but that doesn't mean people don't fall victim to it).

hmm, you credit some of em with too much intelligence. And even then it's very weak eh - if the country had really woken up to how tight supply was i suspect people might have been a bit more exercised about the 1 million immigrants that came into the UK during that time. (And rents vs house prices in the period, etc - guess I'm speaking to the converted here anyway!)

No. The b.stard central line has been working fine. On the day it did go down, I was on the last tube that got through before it was suspended. What are TFL playing at, running an efficient service in this weather!

I understand your frustration (and share it in some ways), but I think the false market will end quicker than you - before a crack up boom has time to form.

So the effect of being a "small island, with not enough houses" only started in 2003? Oh wait, a credit bubble, you say?... Any thoughts, bulls?

That was a good one. I'm sure your motivation for posts like that are entirely altruistic - trying to save people money and rehabilitate them back into normal society by taking out a massive loan owning a property. But if I were armed with your knowledge, I'd be tempted to keep quiet whilst hoovering up as much property as I could get leverage for....

Yeah keep him well away from the negotiating table !

I'm always interested in your views Scepticus. Can you explain (in layman's terms if poss) what you think the "next chapter" might look like, in terms of who would fund government expenditure.

Sure; in any decision , you want to use a bit of your prior experience and a bit of your instinct as to the future. But I think you'd struggle to find many UK homebuyers with a view on changes in UK demographics and its economic growth outlook. I reckon the majority look at how affordable it is at this point in time. If they get lucky, it's won't be because of any great insight (Anyway we're moving away from the valuation debate here....)

You ignore all the loans already in arrears, which are just being kicked down the road. At some point, they'll have to be dealt with properly..... Not sure on the bold bit. I have only seen Scepticus's views on here, which whilst interesting, don't seem to be the vogue within central banks. I actually think rates might stay lowish over the long term (not ultra low) but more because of a lack of demand for money. But not sure how much central banks will have to do with it (reference, the UK 10 yr gilt since QE was announced). In any case, there are no "new lending" deals at anywhere near base rate. You are also, IMO, not giving enough weight to the differences between sovereigns - some will be able to stay low, others won't. Hard to tell where we sit in that spectrum but I certainly haven't got automatic confidence that we're on the right side. As for affordability top - I did a post on this once. Flex your takehome pay against a mortgage of 4,5,6,7 and 8 times your earnings and see what you're left with. More than 6x looks like lunacy even at a low nominal rate like 4%. Guess overall we'll have to agree to differ and I like your optimism, but I don't find your arguments convincing. Good to hear a bull case that doesn't revolve around the shortage of homes in the UK though. That one really has worn thin.

No, I was referring to the conditions you originally listed - low IRs, and banks not repoing. It's these conditions which I think are unsustainable - particularly the repoing bit. I also think they're very important factors in where prices will go, more so than the ones listed in your more recent post above (ie, why would prices being sustained at lower volumes indicate future direction for prices? Isn't that like saying that Vodafone had low volume traded today, and its share price went up. So it follows that it will continue to go up in future)

Do you really believe the bit in bold? If so, why? I can see an argument that current conditions mean prices won't fall much, but I can't see any reason why the current conditions are sustainable even in the short term. Interested to hear an alternative take.

He sounds well fed up. I wonder how many others are feeling the same. Lot of crap places on the outskirts of London where a 2 bed leasehold was 300k plus.....

WIsh I could find the same for insulin. As for the rest of it...if things ever got that bad the vast majority would be unprepared, so the preparations of a few would be absorbed and equalised in a very short time? The people who would come out on top would be those with the biggest guns.

You'd feel safer if you could take some home made antibiotics? And have you really ditched friends that live outside walking distance because they'd be no use in a state breakdown?

it certainly is a most impressive erection.

yeah Halligan, Conway too I suppose. I like Roger Bootle though he's an opinion guy rather than journalist. I do like AEP, he has an interestingly apocalyptic mind and some of his points are plausible, it's just that he seems a little too keen for them to be proved right, and that's led him to come out with more and more outrageous statements over the last year (a la Kaletsky, before the Times did the sensible thing...)

yeah Halligan, Conway too I suppose. I like Roger Bootle though he's an opinion guy rather than journalist. I do like AEP, he has an interestingly apocalyptic mind and some of his points are plausible, it's just that he seems a little too keen for them to be proved right, and that's led him to come out with more and more outrageous statements over the last year (a la Kaletsky, before the Times did the sensible thing...)

I love how he predicts a hyperinflation catastrophe in Japan, the break up of the Euro on North/South lines, and a number of other world changing evbents, and then says we'll have reached the bottom by the end of the year. Sounds like AEP expects an interesting first half of the year then. What a drama queen.