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MississippiJohnHurt

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Everything posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. Yes, let's ban investors from using the wrong analyst! Anyway after what happened with structured debt, I'm surprised these particular analysts still exist, never mind still hold such sway. They are after all publicly traded companies , whose main asset is reputation [well.....aren't they ;] Just reread the OP again - I had jokingly typed "perhaps the EU could rate its own members debt". And then realised that was exactly what was suggested. Does anyone else like screaming, loudly, for a long time? The lack of clarity (or, to be less charitable, the total and utter contempt for the truth) is out of control.
  2. yes let's ban shorting, and then after that we'll ban people from having a negative view about a company. Finally we could have a market where stock prices are set by company executives and (where appropriate) the government. From a market point of view , a lack of shorts can create a vaccuum under an asset price - as a price falls, the shorts often take profits, providing some kind of floor. And it's instructive the list of people who have complained about shorting - Fuld, Hornby, Papendreou come to mind. See a common link with these people?
  3. yes let's ban shorting, and then after that we'll ban people from having a negative view about a company. Finally we could have a market where stock prices are set by company executives and (where appropriate) the government. From a market point of view , a lack of shorts can create a vaccuum under an asset price - as a price falls, the shorts often take profits, providing some kind of floor. And it's instructive the list of people who have complained about shorting - Fuld, Hornby, Papendreou come to mind. See a common link with these people?
  4. It's a funny one cos I sympathise with him for what actually happened today - who of us hasn't handled a difficult situation with professionalism and then let off steam with colleagues after the event? It happens every day in every commercial company . And, I know no-one's forcing politicians to run, but we shd probably accept that some enter politics for the right reasons, and the scrutiny must be intolerably difficult , esp for someone like Brown who doesn't have a natural affinity with people. Having said that it will definitely have clear subconscious effects as people now have this framed image of Brown being lovely to an old woman to her face and then immediately going off behind her back and calling her names. Also the visit to the house which culminated in him saying he was mortified while grinning nervously makes him look completely indecisive - does he think she's a bigot or not? Why is he sorry if so, why did he say it if not int he first place if not? And of course it will tap into the many people who get annoyed when they are called bigots just because they raised what they see as a genuine issue. Suspect they outweight the Guardianistas by a large degree (although caveat that I don't actually know what she said, if it was so hateful that it was obvious she was racist, he could have made some good political capital by sticking to it). The most amazing thing to me is his lack of knowledge about what motivates his core vote. Does he think they're all sitting there talking about how good it is that GDP grew 0.2% last quarter and and how they'd really like an ID card?
  5. just another of the many accepted truths that this crisis has blown apart comprehensively. For instance: whither the risk free rate?!
  6. If Greece got to the point of wanting or being forced to withdraw, the difficulty in administering such a move isn't going to matter. Bit like when the banks were nationalised - the legislative process happened very quickly through parliament and it happened. In emergencies, circumstances determine the process, not the other way round
  7. Just to make sure I'm clear: the figure for last month, which shd have been higher to reflect the start of the sacred Spring Bounce, was lower than the average of the last 6 months - a time when sales are traditionally at their worst, and were even worse than usual this year due to weather conditions (if the "expert" analysis is to be believed) . If I'm not missing something obvious then: hahahahahahahaha Where's Rinoa when you need him/her ? Would have a perfectly plausible explanation for this. Perhaps the volcano meant that people couldn't fly between cities looking for a new house.
  8. Kew is especially good when you're trying to drive out of it on a Saturday afternoon and it takes 3 hours to go 4 miles on the b*stard north circ (or is it south circ by then) .... I do love London though. Born and bred here (North . S London = weird place, clay soil, no tubes) and despite its many foibles, I'd never be anywhere else. Gigs, food, art, brilliant green spaces, history and constantly evolving nature . Don't really see what's changed to make it worse over the last years. Living here has always been a challenge, it's always been expensive, noisy and more crime ridden than provincial UK, but as a big city, that's the trade-off.
  9. That's my understanding too. Think it was Fulham and Hammersmith vs JPMorgan, but taking from memory so is probably 2 completely different parties. Icesave tells us that any way a local council can find of f*cking up,they will, so this court case might have saved the UK a lot more than it seemed at the time. (EDIT: just saw hotairmail's article. lol at the banks' response) As you say though, it seems that the failed use of derivatives to "hedge" is going to turn up in the most unusual of places over the next few years. If/when it gets to hospitals, fire brigades etc, the public might even start taking notice of how wisely their money has been used (and who profited)
  10. The irony of someone with his recent track record making a prediction?
  11. El-Erian sets out the issues crisply and concisely as usual. It really, really feels like 2008 doesn't it ! I'd guess that we're in late August 2008 now....the only question is whether it will spread (or better question: why would it not spread? Would like to hear the arguments as to why Greece will be a complete one off, suspect the argument might not exist). Still, at least house prices are up 1%
  12. You wouldn't help out a dying person because they were born at a certain time in history? Nice work.
  13. Very 1990s The issue now is whether the Euro will survive. It can't unless the whole of Europe (very quickly) accepts full political union. Good luck with that.
  14. A number of quite amazing judgements and leaps of logic here. My fave is when you wrote off about 20 sovereign states as being incapable of governing themselves, because they currently have financial difficulties.
  15. That. If I had to bet I'd say in the main, it's not to driven by deep and meaningful assessments of the inflation/interest rate outlook in the UK, or a hyperinflationary shelter/hedge , etc etc. I reckon it's the last vestiges of the bubble mentality. We have lived through a genuine asset bubble - certainly the first genuine one I've seen (I don't count the dot com boom , don't think it was quite an asset bubble in the classic sense). Anyway my point is, it will take a while for the psychology to shift, possibly longer than we thought at the start of all this. Normal people, who are not investors and in many cases probably have no notion of what makes a good investment, remember the "gains" of the last 10 years and still have this subconscious feeling that property is in some way a guaranteed win. It'll take a while to pass through the system. When it does, there'll be some years of people looking at you like you're mad when you say you're buying.
  16. Chapeau! I'm in on the buyers strike, signing up for longer on our lease shortly, still aint going near the market when rent is 700 a month cheaper and the deposit is 1 grand rather than 75 !
  17. Hmm. I have three quarters of a brain and there's still no shortage round my way. Any other examples of these places where all the clever people want to live?
  18. I've always been told there's a shortage where I live in SE England (Essex/E London borders). It's a 'desirable' location: very easy commute to London, nice green belt area, decent schools, safe, etc etc. Exactly the sort of place Londoners move out to when they want to do the having kids thing. All the locals seem to think it's immune from any housing bust, cos of the "shortage of nice family homes" (this presumably based on as much empirical evidence as the good time to buy meme). However ...I can rent a nice 3 bed for £1250 pcm. Nice 3 beds are offered at £400k plus. And if anything, I have higher minimum standards for a rented house cos I can't do anything with it! I'd like to know these mythical places with a housing shortage. I reckon they might be countable on one hand.
  19. not always - my mrs would fall into the "doesnt want a job" category, staying at home with the kids. (edit: didnt read that table too well. only 2m housewives/husbands in the land?!)
  20. Probably. Suppose it depends on the will of governments to uncover how widespread similar practices was/are. So I suppose we'll see a glut of these forensic reports..... (ok, my sides are hurting now).
  21. Have you read the report? I read the exec summary last night and thought it was excellent. Very clear and well written. Within the first few paragraphs, Lehman execs had been accused of "actionable balance sheet manipulation" ! I'd lay a bet Fuld will be jailed before this is out. He's of no use to the US establishment anymore and scapegoats are needed. There must be a group of seriously worried, seriously rich, formerly well connected men in the US right now.
  22. No, I wasn't trying to say that black people can't save money. Those 3 places are some of the poorest in America from my limited knowledge. If the study was in the UK I might have said Middlesbrough and the link is living on the poverty line not colour. My point was just that there are such inequalities of wealth in America that I doubt even 50% of people have 1k saved up.
  23. what a bullsh*t survey. As if 73% of Americans have over $1k saved. I wonder if their survey took in people from Detroit, Baltimore, New Orleans, etc etc
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