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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. It's pish though isn't it, any such aim is inconsistent with first time buyers entering the market in any great numbers. Also he might want to show us any other market that trades in a straight line for 10 years. I can't see any reason why prices won't fall heavily from here on, for quite a while. Think those predicting only 5% falls etc are going to be in for bit of a shock
  2. Is that what you keep telling yourself GC?! There are plenty of single bankers, and plenty of low paid guys who have no trouble with the ladies. Either got it or not, nowt to do with big salaries…
  3. Good work fella. Crashy crashy housey next year I reckon, the risk to HPCers is all on the upside at the mo :]
  4. Thanks , Particle Man. Interesting views. It's my view that although the mathematic certainty of this was predicted from (perhaps even predicated by) the get-go, that such views were dismissed pre-ERM II as being the ravings of ECU (and then Euro) anti-Federalist detractors. Totally agree with that. And admittedly the calculus of it all was an easy broom-handle to beat the pro-Union types with, and used to that end. All that's happening here is the unwinding of a simple equation - differing (perhaps even opposing) attitudes toward risk handcuffed through currency union will play out in the fiscal sphere, and the stresses will build until one or the other gives (the currency union fails or fiscal union is achieved). And that. I’ve been banging on this point all year – that finally the (only really valid) question is being asked : are these states jointly and severally liable, or not? If so, it’s full union time. No idea on timeframes etc in which this plays out, but things have now irreversibly moved on in that you can actually ask the question without someone berating you for being a loony little Englander. Quote who do you think holds more weight in deciding the outcome: the likes of Juncker, or the likes of Schauble ? I see both as mere actors and fairly unimportant (they're just lables we can use to assign to the various stresses, hopes, and fears of the citizenry). Sure, wasn’t meaning the individuals necessarily but more what they represent ie federal european interests vs sovereign interests To answer your question differently, let me go on to suggest two things :- 1/ Saying "no" is a standard negotiating tactic in Germany (and has been used to very, very good end in improving his claim throughout what will be later known as ERM II's unwind) 2/ The fear of the recent past, the real race to the bottom - the 30's and the 40's - will ensure the Eurozone does indeed arrive at some form of fiscal union once the politics are done (ie once Germany has finished improving his ASK in this most gruesome auction of national assets) I differ here; I think national interests will ultimately prevail, although short term (next 3-5 years) there may be an attempt at closer union. I do think the discrepancies between economies and countries are too great to overcome though in the end, especially where the glue that holds it together comes from desperation (“do this or we’ll all die burning in debt”) rather than a genuine idealogy which is generally accepted by citizens, as in the US. Also think that if the most likely way to bring a repeat of the past is a full federal Europe. It has to be a recipe for what I suppose in a federal Europe would be called civil war. But that’s for later. Suspect to suggest that now would mean being labelled as that eurosceptic loon again......
  5. I'm probably missing something because find your posts very difficult to understand, but interested in your opinion on the following q's: - is your view that people haven't yet woken up that "currency union may indeed imply fiscal union hence in turn require political union" ? IMO this is driving current market events and I don't think it's lost on anyone, esp in the EU political class. - who do you think holds more weight in deciding the outcome: the likes of Juncker, or the likes of Schauble ?
  6. Re your specific example above, BTLers finding it very hard to get mortgages now without large cash reserves. Logical to assume that the BTLers with cash reserves are the more successful ones, ie the ones who actually understand yield and who wd therefore want a large discount on the (still ludicrous) offered prices of new build. So even if - and it's a big if - net migration is massively outsripping property supply, and new houses need to be built to cope, there would, IMO, still be significant downward pressure on the sold prices because the buyers aren't from the same group as the amateur BTL army that we saw in 2005/6/7. I think the amatuers are done with property for a generation, they've have either had their Minsky moment, or are quietly hoping that rates don't change for the next 20 yrs. Anyway this seems kind of immaterial - BTL activity to support immigration is a micro market. Looking at the market as a whole, every sign says prices will continue to fall with no support underneath. Rates will accelerate or decelerate this decline IMO, which is why it's fairly gentle at the moment. But I can't see that we're approaching any equiilibrium soon.
  7. Good luck with that, they barely got the TARP through teh first time and look what's happened since. Imagine what the increasingly influential right would have to say (apart from "where's Europe"?)
  8. Of course, and I bet everyone on this site would do the same if they were in power. I just think there'll be a different end point to you, but who knows. BTW wasn't getting at you re hyperinflation - it's just something about this site generally that has puzzled me for a while.
  9. Sure, fair enough view and I would think that anyone saying inflation couldn't happen here needs some kind of head examination. I am a deflationist (I think) but realise that it could go either way. And I think that whichever outcome we get to will be significantly detrimental to everyone's wealth.
  10. And if we had interest rates at 15% , with current levels of indebtedness, what's next? IMO, either a large bust, or a continuation of the policies which would lead to significant/out of control/hyperinflation, eventually ending in.....a large bust.
  11. The man could either let himself burn and hope to survive (with outcome variations depending on long term damage sustained by the action), jump in a river and survive (with same long term outcome variations), or jump in a river and drown. All of these are possible, no? If I was to apply some on this site's mentality though, I would say that everyone who has ever been on fire jumped in some water and drowned, that you would do the same if you were ever on fire, and that you were an idiot for thinking there are any other possible outcomes.
  12. I'm with BlooLoo, we are clearly in a deflationary environment. Whether nature takes its course, or the attempts to combat the deflation lead to a loss of control of the currency, the end point is obviously a large deflation. If we've gone hyper in the meantime, it just means we get hyper deflation in the end. And the hyperinflation part would probably be pretty short term in nature. As for your points above, hyperinflation is not and has never been a deliberate policy option pursued by governments, it is a clear sign that the government has lost control. In that scenario they also lose control of the tax base as black markets flourish. So their power is reduced. And it would presumably lead to regime change. Name me a government in history that would have deliberately pursued that as a policy. It's something that happens to governments against their will and intention. Hyperinflation is way overdone on this site, to the point of some getting all emotional if people mention deflation. Can anyone expain this ? I just think that whatever the outcome, we're probably all stuffed. So why are people so protective that it has to be and will be hyperinflation? (My guess is something to do with Gold).
  13. Me too - but this level of desperaton in the markets is quite telling, I think
  14. I've been saying thw same for a while, and been generally ridiculed by people (outside this site) , usually with variations of "oh they won't let it happen" . But I think we're nearing the time when the entire debate will be boiled down to and decided by Germany's internal political debate over whether they would be best off in, or out, of the Euro. This is now a straight political question and I have no time for any economic analysis of the situation, we're past that point. It's nigh on impossible to call the German's view in the long term - if I had to bet I'd think they decide they'll be better off better alone, or as part of a smaller group. The peripherals will presumably acquiesce for now, whilst the lesser of two evils is ceding control to the EU but not having to face the reckoning. In the medium term I'd expect that to change, for example when a peripheral's banks are off life support, but there is a still a multi-generation crippling debt to pay down which is holding back growth and employment. That's got to be a key point when the political judgement changes. I'd also think that the Germans are very alive to this. Whilst all this plays out I guess it's inevitable we'll see QE by the ECB (more temporary solutions which dont touch the core problems but will probably buy off enough participants to halt the current panics). Am less certain whether they would try an EMU bond, even if it was just 2 or 3 members. Suspect they know already that the yield would be closer to the peripheral in question than Germany / France / a n other sensible country backing it (I know you laugh at the word sensible, but it's all relative!) That would just crystallise the need for an answer to the jointly/severally liable question and I think the EU knows it, so it can't be an attractive option. Did anyone else sense a feeling of pure desperation in the equity rally today? IBEX was up 4.5% on those comments from Trichet. Ludicrous. Certainly, I haven't heard anyone bring out the old "equity markets foretell conditions in 18 months time" meme for a while
  15. Agree - if you don't do this in order to buy a house, you're a loser who doesn't care about his family. People who really want to get on in life have to do some unpalatable things, something that you renters will never understand.
  16. Heh nice one ! Not sure about the passports though. Perhaps some semi important papers
  17. The MSE thread = mwahahahaha. HPC is here muthaf=ckas, and it looks like it isn't going to respect shiny kitchens or wet rooms.
  18. oh yes ! But remember : the FTSE is a great leading indicator. It "predicts the economy 18 months in advance" , an old sailor once told me
  19. The timing is so hard to call. It seems clear to me that at some point the whole thing comes to a (jarring) halt, but I have no idea when . Some days I think it could take 5 years or more, and some days I think it's coming next week ! Recently I've started erring towards sooner than later, cos I originally thought EFSF etc would buy 18mths +, and it only bought 6. Also the political stuff in Germany is much more difficult that people are letting on, IMO. Merkel is getting canned by other EU partners, but she isn't stupid and will know what her words and actions can do. I think she is in an incredibly tough position domestically after Greece, and that's minor in the scheme of things. Agree that this round with Ireland won't be the real endgame though, there are still some twists and turns to come but whatever happens it's clear that as you say, the problem isn't going to just go away. Long term structural problems being "cured" with short term tactical solutions never ends well I guess.
  20. All good but these have just been the warm up plays I reckon. When Spain gets tested some proper questions will be answered.....going by that chart that was floating around a while back, French banks exposed to about 20% of country GDP in Spain alone. UK banks have of course an immense exposure too. Looks like we'll know within the next 12 mths anyway. IMO none of this ends until the the question of whether Euro states are jointly and severally liable for each others' debts is definitively resolved. If they are , surely Germany's cost of money starts reflecting its position as supporter of the basket cases? If not then presumably it's Iceland time for a large number of states. Too historic and large to call, but the noises out of Germany would make me bet against them playing the saviour indefinitely. What do others think?
  21. I’ve always thought that too: it’s like people would rather risk overpaying on the biggest financial commitment they’ll ever make, just to avoid the possibility of moving house once or twice. Even if you pay for removal men to come and pack the boxes for you, you won’t pay more than 1k for moving! And given where rents are compared with house prices, I’d think the risk of kids being unsettled is far higher for those who take out a mortgage that they can’t really afford, and then struggle financially, than it is in having to move once or twice during childhood. This little “truth” is pretty close to renters’ hearts though, cos it feels like a bit of a personal attack. I suspect we hear it as: “renters would put financial decision before their family’s stability, aren’t they terrible!”. But in reality guess it’s just another bullsh*t accepted truth that people repeat without thinking through, a bit like “it’s a good time to buy” during late 2008. (Funny, I don’t hear that one any more...I think sentiment is changing, just slowly)
  22. Not sure I understand the point: is it 1) “you lot earn well, stop whinging”? 2) “you lot save too much, get a life”? 3) “it was just as bad in my day, get a grip Or 4) This isn’t representative of the real world cos you lot earn and save so much Depending on what you were saying: 1) I think the point is that the group of relatively high earners on this thread don’t feel like their earnings and purchasing power don’t have any sensible relationship. Is this not a valid view just because they have above average earnings? 2) Must be a range on this thread – only a few have referred to total self denial in order to maximise savings. I myself bought a Tesco Finest tin of beans the other day …… 3) Depends when you were born but in terms of earning multiples (and therefore the actual financial commitment of buying a house), we are clearly in a worse place now than at any time previously, at least as far as records go back. I have a bunch of anecdotal info that suggests it was clearly much easier 70s and 80s to buy, but that’s another thread. 4) So what? And isn’t it actually quite illustrative, esp referring back to point 2) For me, the real point on this thread is how much of an accident of birth “housing wealth” is. On that other thread of over 35s , there were loads of people who had put down minimal deposits and made huge returns. However as a 31 yr old, with my peers generally buying between 2004 and 2008, we put down minimal deposits and got hardly any return (not whinging!). And those buying now will need huge deposits for arguable returns. So success or otherwise in property has almost solely been determined on the final 2 digits of your birthdate. Yet we’ve had years of the older generations thinking they were financial geniuses and propagating the whole idea of property “wealth”. This will take some time to work through the system - IMO we have all been affected by the bubble, just in different ways. People on here still focussing an awful lot on owning a house. Perhaps the real leap forward will be when the younger generations stop being so obsessive about “owning” a property at all. Savings are all good but we might find much better uses for them than just sinking them into a house…..
  23. 31, SE (Essex/ELondon borders) . Renting a really nice 3 bed after selling our first time in Nov 2008 -a crap 2 bed leashold flat, made about 10k in 3 yrs, but had spent that on doing it up so really we just got our 8%(!) deposit back. Earning really well at mo, enough for my mrs to stay at home with kids and for us to save and live well. Could never afford/stomach the mortgage on the house we're in, similar go up for about 425k at the moment. But coincidentally, this very house was up for 425k at the peak, and never sold. So asking prices round here are still laughable - the estate agents must be proud. But the rent is fine and the downside risk of staying in rented seems minimal just now. Proper HPC still feels like miles away and am kind of bored of house prices now, convinced it's a bursting bubble but think it could be drawn out. In fact I even had a little period of HPC mentality-rebellion earlier in the year and bought a shiny car But more and more friends are asking about selling to rent. Those who bought after 06 are v nervous esp if they think about rates. Definitely more nervousness out there than in 08 - we completed the flat sale just after Lehman, AIG, RBS etc had happened, and friends thought we were mad to sell and rent ! Now it's more of a mainstream view.
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