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MississippiJohnHurt

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Posts posted by MississippiJohnHurt

  1. I wonder if this is the ripple in action. I look at a specific postcode round where I live, which is prime London emigrant territory - still on tube line but in leafy part of Essex, 4x4s and ballet classes extremely prevalent, etc etc

    The % of sold stc vs available stock has been declining quite rapidly lately. At the high end 800k+ it is less than 20%, which has previously seemed to be an indicator of falling prices. Other brackets are now 30% ish. At times in the last few years this would have been more like 50% plus.

    Total stock is increasing too.

    All seems to be moving in a good direction round here. Maybe what you are seeing in northampton is just the inevitable push of commuters outwards as closer markets become prohibitive.

    Given that the south east housing market is built on London commuting, it can't go on indefinitely. Although I did hear from Kirsty Allsop that the Faroe Islands are quite commutable to London nowadays....

  2. Congrats, Scepticus and Blandy, for the most interesting thread on hpc in 2016.

    If I may just take it back to housing for a moment, could I ask if Scepticus has a view on how much housing is currently overvalued based on the model described of prevailing interest rates tending towards the negative ? I can understand the position being put across and don't disagree, but as above you have the impression shelter is currently overvalued, even in the context of a system heading inexorably towards NIRP.

    So I guess my layman's questions are 1) do you have a view on the level of overvaluation in the current market (Londonis perhaps easiest reference point) and 2) why do you think this is sustaining - illiquidity/signal noise, or something more fundamental ?

    Thanks again for a v interesting read - this place obviously has its flaws but threads like this make it a better place :)

  3. Source

    I think Busta has finally exhausted my stock of trite one-liners. The idea of a couple of dozen landlords in orange T-shirts constituting a "huge" publicity stunt so exciting that one ought to fly in from Malta, it's so 'disappointing second album' compared to the £1000 book.

    From memory, the 'Orange Shirts' were the lead item on Newsnight on 22 July, before making the front pages of most of the next day's papers?

    It clearly got into people's consciousness too, the watercooler in my office was also abuzz with tales of the long awaited dawn of the brave landlords' resistance movement.

    "Not before time, good sirs" was the general consensus, as i recall.

  4. [quote name="Ah-so" post="1103075367" timestamp="1472078830"

    I know HPC is powerful, but you still have a few allies. Like the Daily Telegraph and most of the other press, the various landlord associations, every bank and building society. I know that they are no match for the 36 of us on this virtually unknown website, but if you work together and pay £10 pm you might have a chance.

    After all, you will need so those donations for your CGT bill.

    :)

  5. Knock Out Johnny - as it goes i do owe you an apology, my post yesterday with the word 'b-llocks' in it was not constructive. In general i think i am encouraging of other views on here, so you should not assume thst it was born from some kind of hostility to an alternative view - was just in a rush and didnt enter the debate constructively.

    Fwiw i do think your original point was overly definitive and has not been backed up - but clearly there were better ways to have said that. This forum is at its best when there is good quality debate with a range of opinions and i think i usually try and contribute to that rather thsn hinder it !

  6. I'm certain that an actual forum such as this - which has a large number of participants who spend the majority of the time arguing and debating with each other - does not have some kind of mysterious founding leader with a nefarious, and one might add entirely pointless, agenda

    Yeah, well. That's what you might think.

    Seriously though, what does Alexander know that we dont ? Last time i checked, we hadnt even seen sny year on year falls. He has moved pretty quickly from reasonably benign mocking to full on Colonel Kurtz mode. Wonder why....

  7. "in the last three years there has been a 50% drop in the number of landlords taking people who are on benefits. It is now down to only one fifth; 22% of our landlord members whom we surveyed say they have LHA tenants, and 52% of those surveyed said they would not look at taking on benefits tenants."

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmworpen/720/720.pdf

    page 18 onwards

    now fck off

    a. that is CML lenders only

    b. it describes a trend but not an absolute - eg how do you know that the 22% dont represent a large volume of total let dwellings

    c. always a pleasure

  8. I search in an area supported by the london megabubble - east london borders, epping/loughton kind of area. Prime area for Zone 1/2 madgainz emigration

    I sometimes have a look at sold stc vs total stock as a rough guide for how hot the market is. I use the same postcode with similar parameters, just varying the min and max price to look at different segments.

    My most common search is 3 bed up to 400k. In 2008-10 it was usually about 20-25% of stock sold stc. 2010-12 ot went up taround 35% on average. Then over last couple of years it rocketed and was often 60-70%.

    Lately this has fallen rapidly and is now 35% again, falling each time ive looked (3 or 4 times in 6 mths).

    As prices have got so expensive here, volumes in the search category have fallen. So i started another search, cm16 postcode, 3 bed and over, 500-800k. This has mich higher volumes - usually 100 plus. It was also averaging 60% plus 2013-2015 and has now fallen sharply, 25% today on total volume 128 properties.

    Hardly science but gives some insight into supply vs demand and direction of travel in an area that was sent truly mental by the disgusting 2013-2015 echo boom

  9. So,

    (i) for HMRC to recognise a trust, it needs to be registered with Land Reg

    but

    (ii) you can't get a mortgage (or remortgage) if the Land Reg records that the beneficial interest has been magicked away via trust.

    Makes perfect sense. Far more sense than the 118 wheeze made when I first read about it.

    Heh it turns out that lenders might care after all when the key secuity underpinning a secured loan is encumbered. That they won't play along when winking ignoramuses wheel out the old "dont worry fella, its only a cover for the taxman, init" line.

    I'm amazed. Shocked.

    The last few pages of this thread are what the 118ers should be using for advice, rather than fly by night accountancy firms. Because the last few pages provide some pretty compelling indicators that HMRC are now getting into the detail of landlord tax avoidance, having clarified their stance on the principles over the last few years.

    Bus t'Malta and parasite chums.... Mark Shoeshine, RosAnneFrank etc....we know you lurk here. You are screwed beyond imagining, you know it and we know it, and it is long overdue.

    But can one of you keep Gary Dully up to date please . I imagine he is too busy with his Mingers to be on here, but i have developed quite a soft spot for him - once this is over i would like to explore investing in a life coaching / media lobbying business with him as the straight talking frontman.

    (just back from hols fellow HPCers, havent been here for 2 wks, seems like lots of good stuff going on ?)

  10. There is also this. Possibly the biggest threat of all.

    It's pretty clear that there will be massive encouragement over the next few years for a total corporate takeover of BTL - too much money and responsibility to leave in the hands of the financially illiterate.

    This is due to government policies that have hit buy-to-let landlords hard: firstly by cutting mortgage tax relief, and then by hiking stamp duty for investment properties by 3pc. This could leave more room for professional landlords like Grainger to step in.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/grainger-property-company-making-most-171518857.html

    Yep and I suspect the corporates won't want to operate on a sub 3% gross margin. In the typical 118 landlord's mind this means that the corporates will just put up rents. I think they are more likely to just swerve the current prs by building. Suppose more occasionally they might buy distressed portfolios, assuming they are not anything absurd, like 750 houses in a sh**e provincial town.

  11. Not possible, the sky fell down on the 24th June

    There is still a sky, it is just not a magical EU sky made from candyfloss and the dreams of babies like the old sky we had before. I wonder if they will let us have any of the nice sky back or if we will have to use the same sky as everyone else in the world who doesn't have a special EU sky.

    I hope they are not mean to us. I dont like mean people.

  12. Ok then.

    Qualify your argument with some numbers and facts and not just vacuous rhetoric.. seemingly parroted from Leave campaign posters?

    How much poorer am I because of non-working immigrants (ignore students in your sums)?

    How has my quality of life been eroded because of immigration?

    How have my freedoms, life choices, rights and security been negatively effected by immigration?

    Versus.

    All the above in the case of BREXIT?

    All the opportunities awaiting me (and the rest of the UK's subjects)?

    Do you have an example of some bad things that have happened your freedoms, life choices, rights and security since June 23rd ?

    If not then maybe rant to yourself for a while until you have something meaningful to debate ?

  13. Well to be fair, the 1%ers have a lot of supporters: Remainers, the Facebook-grazing youth, Labourites, Unions, the whole shebang are all supporting the status quo - which is supporting the 1%.

    It's only the "loony, swivel-eyed, racist, Farage-supporting knuckle draggers" who speak up for the unwashed 99%.

    No irony in the above comments - just a direct observation (hence quote marks in the above sentence).

    Extraordinary isn't it.

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