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Deckard

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Everything posted by Deckard

  1. Hmmm... check this out. The chart below shows how investors were pricing the “good stocks” in the S&P 500 as of January 22. Each line represents a decile (10%) of the S&P 500, ranked by price/revenue ratios. Among the stocks in the top valuation decile at the 2000 market peak, the median drawdown loss by October 2002 was about 80%. Yet many stocks in the broad market were actually reasonably valued from a historical perspective even at the 2000 market peak. In recent weeks, that top valuation decile has eclipsed its 2000 peak. The difference from 2000 is that every other decile just hit the highest level in history as well.
  2. +1 GBP appears to be trading as a straight risk asset at the moment. US 10yr yield up to 1.50%, stock market down, cable -150 pips from the intraday highs.
  3. You two, get a room ! Back on topic, US 10yr yield just breached 1.5%, which puts it above the S&P's 12 months divi yield. No wonder US markes are down (something of a rarity these days). The only reason why anyone would buy into these overstretched valuations ATM is the expectation of FED YCC to come in the near future. We shall see...
  4. Could a possible ARK collapse be the trigger ? "ARK’s ETFs now own at least 15% of 11 different companies.ARK’s illiquid holdings are problematic because if ARK ever faced outflows, or the threat of potential outflows, hedge funds could take predatory short positions in ARK’s illiquid holdings and create a performance death spiral."
  5. Indeed. Hard lessons are being learned all the way through the current mania phase. When this bubble eventually pops, the stream of sob stories will be something to behold.
  6. Another good piece that highlights the unprecedented level of risk taking underpinning the current speculative frenzy. One For The Ages
  7. Nah, it'll be reversion to the mean - same as it ever was.
  8. 🤣 😂 🤣 I suspect he's considerably richer than you, matey.
  9. hmmm... there are some rather smart people out there still uttering those magic words... @michaeljburry 2:14 PM · Feb 11, 2021 70% of $BTC is mined in sanctioned countries, China, Iran, Russia. Crypto is in a race - add enough reputable agents of commerce to counter and overcome the inevitable coordinated actions of the ECB/BoJ/Fed/IMF/WorldBank-level powers-that-be to crush it.
  10. Oh yeah, baby The EV-pegged TulipCoin cryptocurrency rocketed over 800% Tuesday (not a misprint), dominating the cryptocurrency markets as investors flocked to hedge against the sinking fiat currencies by purchasing fiat assets. TulipCoin differentiates itself from the hundreds of alt-coins available by pegging their price to a basket of speculative EV stocks including Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and NIO (NYSE:NIO). “We are happy, but not surprised with Tulip’s success” boasted TulipCoin’s CTO Julie Von Dutch, “it’s basics physics; when you take two bubbles and combine them you get one massive bubble. Some people would say this is injecting more risk into the public investment space, but to them we say this time is clearly different.” The coin’s initial public offering was bolstered by Hollywood celebrities who purchased the coin as a status symbol, raising the value which in turn increased interest from the general public. “When you see Kim [Kardashian] with a TulipCoin image on her Insta, you immediately go to Etsy to see if you can get something similar,” TulipCoin enthusiast Karen White said, “When I realized it wasn’t even a physical object, but instead a limited-edition digital currency I knew I had to have one. Then, I found out that the ‘price only goes up.’ I just had to buy one for each of my closest 15 friends while it was on sale.”
  11. I'm starting to get the feeling that the trigger for the next major stock market correction might turn out to be the same force which is currently sustaining the speculative frenzy: GREED. There are whispers out there that you won't find on Reddit. Huge volume of cheap TSLA puts available at the moment, it would be fairly easy for large HFs to force a reverse gamma squeeze if they had the guts - this time on the downside. If that happens all bets are off, the domino effect would be massive. You heard it here first, folks.
  12. Read the link I posted, Jenny from the block(chain). Margin debt – the amount of money that investors have borrowed in order to buy stocks – is now at the highest level in history, not only in absolute terms, but also relative to U.S. GDP. Notice that spikes in the ratio of margin debt to GDP are distinct markers of speculative extremes like 1987, 2000, 2007, and today.
  13. Nah, no way it's going to take that long. Nobody can claim to be able to time the top, but we can't be far. This is recommended reading. Detached Parabolas and Open Trap Doors "Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I believe that future investors will look back on the present moment the same way that we look back on the 1929 and 2000 extremes. People will use us to teach lessons to their children." And before the lynch mob starts: he's talking about the stock market, not BTC.
  14. This is a great read. Detached Parabolas and Open Trap Doors "Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I believe that future investors will look back on the present moment the same way that we look back on the 1929 and 2000 extremes. People will use us to teach lessons to their children." We can't be far.
  15. No, it does not. FAIL. Which you felt compelled to start. And yet bringing up your financial circumstances was all you could come up with to answer my question. FAIL. How noble of you. Nite nite.
  16. You have no way to disprove @Who am I?'s statement. He just said "an area in the suburbs outside a commuter town that's half an hour from London", which is a very large radius. He explained that for personal reasons he can only look in that particular area at the moment, so your links prove diddlysquat. You don't even have kids yet, but you are happily conceding they would be entirely dependent on your financial circumstances in order to get on the ladder - and you are "at peace with it." Priceless.
  17. Precisely. Was he bothered by the Halifax report, perchance?
  18. Because you disputed a new poster's statement lamenting the state of things - for no apparent reason other than devolving into self-congratulatory, condescending babble when challenged. Why did you feel compelled to do that?
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