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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Deckard

  1. HFs are going through a very rough patch, due to massive redemptions and higher finance/borrowing costs. The head of Citadel reckons 30% of HFs will not survive the present crisis (see relevant thread a couple of days ago). However, the combined strenght of the still healthy HFs is enormous, and they could easily send EM currencies into a tailspin. The fact that US HFs are getting out of EM stocks and buying US assets is the single main factor behind the recent $ appreciation. Whether or not HFs perform a useful function has been the subject of endless discussions for decades. Personally, I think they are a bunch of sharks who wouldn't think twice to ruin a country's economy in exchange for a short term profit. I guess in a free market you cannot stop audacious investors from targeting this kind of opportunity - but regulation needs to be seriously tightened and leverage monitored. The current ban on short sale of financial stocks is a joke, and just goes to show how little the SEC, FSA etc understand about derivatives in general and the way HFs build synthetic positions in particular.
  2. Fishing for some guitar respect after all the compliments you got for your financial predictions RB? I gotta tell you though, SRV never played 12's - and if YOU can bend 2 tones on those you are clearly wasting your time on this forum
  3. Don't give up the day job, dude..
  4. Orla, if you want to be resassured this forum is THE LAST PLACE you should come to... don't you see it's infested by doom mongers, new world order believers, lizard conspiracy theorists and so on? Quite frankly, these people are sad losers who just wish for everyone to share the same sh*tty existence they live, and nothing amuses them more than scaring people like yourself. This forum is a great place to get a quick snapshot of what's going on with financial markets in general, thanks to a majority of sane posters, but YOU HAVE TO DRAW YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS and add accordingly.
  5. I like the Bloomberg headline better: Greenspan Says He `Found a Flaw' in Free-Market Ideology That Guided Him http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home The old git is shameless
  6. 30% of hedge funds to go down? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=con...id=a52GAAq9aOSc If we are truly going to experience the next Great Depression this seems inevitable - and IMO not a bad thing. HFs are at least as rotten as investement banks in terms of greed, malpractice, excessive leverage and short-termism. Consolidation and increased regulation in the HF industry? Bring them on!!
  7. I'd like to think my identity is more to do with my ideas than a Simpsons character, sir
  8. Yes, those pesky green lizards are behind all this: can you hear their telepathic conversations in your head?
  9. Validation? I did not offer a theory to validate, I just expressed my concerns and asked people on this forum to express their opinion. Isn't that what website like this are all about?
  10. you'll know this website is gone for good when more posters start quoting David Icke than Ponzi Brown
  11. Dude, your frustration is coming through - and it's uglier than your avatar. I don't suggest for a minute that house prices should LOGICALLY go up. I am just saying: when governments get involved to the degree we are seeing, rulebooks go out of the window - and this worries me A LOT
  12. Dude, that boat sailed already with all the atomic shelter builders / crossbow hunters / lizard conspiracy theorists who came out of the woodwork in recent weeks...
  13. *Ouch* !! Yes, well, I feel better already with your faultless logic - cheers
  14. 4. Of course house sellers haven't been rushing to cut prices. All their hopes and dreams (and even pensions) are tied up in those fantasy asking prices, so you can understand why they've been slow to face up to the inevitable. If you're standing underneath the town hall clock, waiting for the girl of your dreams to meet you for a first date at 8.00pm, you don't immediately rush off if she hasn't shown up by 8.01pm, you wait a bit longer...and then a bit longer still...and after that you wait some more, just to be absolutely sure that she's not coming. But at some point you face facts that you've been dumped. Well, that's happening now, it's 8.35pm and all the fondly imagined excuses, like she missed her bus, are fast evaporating! What a great metaphor: one of the best I've seen on this website
  15. Valid point. Hovewer 1) How long before Ponzi Brown & co introduce some form of incentive for FTBs? Wouldn't that be enough for a few undecided people to take the plunge? 2) A lot of FTB would content themselves with a 1 bed flat to start with - guaranteed.
  16. Yes, that is precisely what I'm concerned about: 4-5X offers are still out there, and govt will not let them go away now that they (we) own the banks. Of course, with rising unemployment the number of transactions is bound to stay low for a while - but it's the house price dynamics we are looking at, not sales volumes. We saw -20/25% from the peak: if people start thinking that's all we're going to get and credit is still availble to those with a job, fto amilies upgrading who only need a small mortgage etc why should prices keep falling?
  17. There seem to be signs that HPC may be losing momentum soon. 1) the sheeple are now convinced that interest rates will go down and stay low for a long while 2) governments will try to spend/inflate their way out of global recession while forcing nationalized banks to lend at will. Thanks to media coverage more and more people are waking up to this 3) incentives to FTBs now likely to be offered abroad (Australia started the trend) 4) "Houses as pensions" argument starting to resurface at a time when stocks are collapsing (admittedly this is just my own anedoctal experience, but scary all the same) 5) Banks not seen as a safe place to keep your money anyway A few people on this forum are putting in offers, FFS! Surely that's not a good sign for HPC??? Please reassure me this is not the beginning of the end for HPC
  18. Yep, I was thinking the same: whichever way you look at it (fair/unfair) it is a sizeable rescue plan relative to Iceland size and population (not to the amount of debt they amassed of course). The point is: IMF resources are not unlimited, the next countrie(s) to resort to their help may not be as lucky as Iceland.
  19. Apologies if already posted here. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
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