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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Deckard

  1. Hey Count, I've been away from these shores a long, long time. But today I thought I'd check what the mood on HPC was these days, and just HAD to jump back in after I saw your post. It looks like you've lost the faith, but like others have said: when the last bear turns bullish... The way I see it, it really is now or never. You waited so long... don't give up yet. The next 12-18 months are key: if we don't get a proper crash now, then clearly we never will. By "proper" I mean 25%+ in nominal terms as a national average, clearly with significant regional differences.
  2. Shouldn't they make their exports more competitive and attract international tourism by devaluing their currency? Oh, wait
  3. This. Vote with your feet, grab that opportunity, see the world, live your life how YOU want.
  4. All hell to break loose after the German elections?
  5. Good post. Certainly matches my own experience (lived in the smoke for 15 yrs, then buggered off ).
  6. You need to factor this in NAHB Credibility = lim(n→∞)⁡ Rightmove Credibility ^ -n
  7. Has US housing bubble 2.0 been nipped right in the bud? Housing Shakeup
  8. Don't be harsh, that only applies to him. For everyone else, it's just a wast of time
  9. Samaras announces VAT reduction in food service sector So let me get this straight: Samaras spoke to Greek bar owners and restaurateurs, and took their word that if VAT was reduced, they'd start to actually pay taxes? Oh yeah, Antonis, fat chance Des·per·a·tion n. 1. The condition of being desperate. 2. Recklessness arising from despair.
  10. Nah, he's not really that good: just a cut-rate, cheapo troll, desperately peddling his ludicrous dogma. Ignore.
  11. Yep, there was, here is the link from my post in the Italy thread. Only in the mind of the Eurotrolls.
  12. Unlike yours, my remarks are fact based, not dogma based. Your credibility depends on your ability to dispute the points I raised, which you haven't done.
  13. You are either completely blinkered, or a Euro-troll. You think a paltry single digit YOY adjustment makes everything alright, after astronomical rises over a number of years? PIIGS property prices literally took off after the Euro launch, due to the way anyone with pricing power (including homeowners) reacted to EMU. In Italy, for instance, the official conversion rate was 1936.27 - however asking prices got converted based on 1000 Lira = 1 Euro, like food prices, petrol prices etc. Unfortunately though, 99% of salaries got converted at the official rate, so income multiples to buy a house doubled overnight. This was followed by years of further HPI, fuelled by easy credit at all levels, and the false feelgood factor created by inept governments hiring countless useless civil servants in order to buy votes. In Greece things were even worse, as the official conversion rate was 340.75 - but prices adjusted based on 100 Drachma = 1 Euro. The logic behind your nonstop pro-Euro propaganda is based on horsesh1t.
  14. All PIIGs experienced vast HPI after the Euro introduction. However, only Ireland and Spain, the two countries with the largest bubbles, experienced large price reductions since 2008. No meaningful HPC in Italy and Portugal, and only moderate falls in Greece (considering they are totally bust).
  15. Would housing bubbles have happened in the PIIGS without the ridiculously low post-Euro interest rates?
  16. +1 All piggies desperately need to reform their rigid labour markets and ridiculous pension systems, cut down on tax evasion and corruption. Their inept politicians wasted a golden opportunity to achieve this (at least in part) in the first years after the Euro introduction, when their borrowing costs were drastically reduced. Instead, they swelled public debt by hiring armies of useless public servants to buy votes. At this stage, and for as long as the piggies remain in the Euro, no elected government stands a snowball chance in hell to even propose these vital reforms, without being booted out. The Euro can only survive if the piggies accept to hand over their sovereignty to Germany in exchange for a full fiscal, then political union. This isn't going to happen, so instead they are doomed to endure years, if not decades of economic, social and political decline - until the dam breaks, through political upheaval. When that eventually happens, their only option will be to ditch the Euro, devalue, accept a drastic reduction in their living standards and prolonged double digits inflation to reduce their debt. Hopefully, at some point they will also embrace the need for said reforms, in order to restore their competitiveness. I have no idea how long this process is going to take, but once the first piggy leaves, the others are sure to follow suit swiftly.
  17. Reuters link Yep, and the same applies to the other piggies too - been saying this for ages on here.
  18. Outlook negative, understatement of the century. Fukced more like.
  19. MWAHAAHAHAHAHA !!! Let's see who fares better in 5 years, the UK or the piggies (and you can include your beloved France in them).
  20. +1 Her ramblings have have always been meaningless, but of late she's really embarassing. What a waste of space.
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