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Deckard

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Posts posted by Deckard

  1. 7 hours ago, VancouverGuy said:

    Expect a few common themes in the media over the next couple of years, later this year it will be:

    "We moved to nowhere-on-the-Wold during lockdown, now my husband's boss wants him back in Canary Wharf - can they force him?". Of course they can't force him back - but they can stop paying him if he refuses, and hire someone else who actually shows up. No severance for job-desertion.

    2022 and 2023 will be:

    "We bought a cottage in Cornwall during lockdown, now we can't sell it, husband is tired of the weekly-commute to his rented flat in Peckham We paid £800k but haven't had any offers. Why won't it sell? Help!". The nearest comparable sale will be £500k.

    ^ this. :D

  2. 46 minutes ago, CityLAD88888 said:

    Fundamentally a year plus of lockdown after lockdown has, ironically, given people choice about where they live and work, housing and living in the western world has become much more fungible, and that's an absolutely massive deal.

    I'm not sure this model is going to stick in the medium/long term though.

    If I were still two or three decades away from retirement I'd think twice before loading up on debt to buy a family home in a rural area, based on the assumption that WFH is the new normal.

    Forever is a very long time...

    By way of example, this time last year many bright minds were forecasting a permanent shift away from efficiency in favour of resilience in manufacturing, following the global PPE shortage in the early days of the pandemic. Twelve months down the line, very little has actually changed at all.

     

  3. 4 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

    Non-issue. 

    It is most definitely an issue, when you put it in context with the general outlook in ocean freight.

    613x-1.png

     

    The charges for ocean containers are going through the roof ATM.

    Shipping quotes are only good for two weeks and departures from ports get postponed on a regular basis.

    This baby is very, very real - and here to stay for the foreseeable future.

  4. 16 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

    I dont really understand much of this so I am not being facetious...

    What is YCC?

    What do you mean by bond rout...are these being sold? If so why? What will be the effect?

    The basics:

    Bond Price And Yield Relationship

    Yield curve control

    Bonds are getting sold as traders expect higher interest rates in future, due to the threat of inflation overshooting CB's stated targets.

  5. 21 minutes ago, captainb said:

    Until that realrionship changes it will move and be priced like a speculative asset which is fine but don't try and pretend that makes it a global currency it its current form. 

    ^ this.

    BTC is trading like a high beta stonk at the moment, no more, no less.

    Evp-HDnXUAQB29f.jpg.c1575627bda31302d7ad8c43d2ac0be8.jpg

  6. US 10yr yield just shot up to 1.54 after Powell failed to announce (or at least mention) YCC in a speech, in response to the ongoing bond rout.

    I still think the Fed will cave in at some point, but watch this space...

     

    EDIT: And of course all risk assets puked in synch as a result.

  7. 5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

    Mortgage lenders are effectively insured against interest rate rises for the next decade.

    If rates do rise in a meaningful way (and it's a big if, admittedly), do you really think a fair chunk of overpriced slave box wouldn't see > 20% falls ?

  8. 35 minutes ago, simon2 said:

    I wouldn't be surprised if either not all lenders offered it, or the ones that do make it at higher rates to compensate for the fee.

    Beat you to it.

    2 hours ago, Deckard said:

    it's a safe bet that lenders will pass this on to borrowers under the scheme.

  9. 23 minutes ago, austrianec said:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/965665/210301_Budget_Supplementary_Doc_-_mortgage_guarantee_scheme.pdf

    It is essentially the 2013 scheme rehashed. The important point is that it only applies to 91-95% mortgages so cannot hope to flatten the curve of mortgage interest rates.

    In the latest BoE mortgage rates, you can see that 85% LTV mortgages charge around 3% interest...which is exactly what 95% mortgages were charging at the end of 2019. 95% mortgages will be priced higher than 85% mortgages so 95% mortgages will be more expensive than they were pre-Covid whatever happens. If house prices are a function of credit availability then this does nothing.

    This is completely different to when they introduced the scheme in 2013 when 95% mortgages hadn't existed for 5 years and came back at the lowest rate they'd ever been.

    ********

    Stamp duty is an interesting one because, from 1st July, some purchasing a house of £300k would immediately start paying half the stamp duty they would in normal times. Given that one of the arguments for an extension was to avoid a "cliff edge" for people whose purchases drag on beyond the original deadline, they've now potentially created two cliff edges...and potentially differential incentives at different places in a chain.

    Also, the fact it's a full extension means people will want to sell their houses in the next month or so to take advantage...so we'll probably see a lot of supply coming on the market sooner rather than later (post-lockdown).

    I don't know how it'll play out but "chaotic" is surely a given.

    ********

    Finally, if people are going to over-bid in the next 3 months, lenders aren't going to want to provide 95% LTV mortgages to them...which may dampen the immediate effect of that policy. Interesting times.

     

    Good post. From the PDF file:

    The government will provide lenders with the option to purchase a guarantee on the top-slice of the mortgage. In other words, the government will compensate the mortgage lender for a portion of the net losses suffered in the event of repossession. The guarantee will apply down to 80 per cent of the purchase value of the guaranteed property.

    No indication of what the cost of the guarantee is going be (there's bound to be a range based on different factors), but it's a safe bet that lenders will pass this on to borrowers under the scheme.

    Also:

    a mortgage eligible for a guarantee under the scheme will need to:
    • be a residential mortgage (not second homes) and not buy-to-let
    • be taken out by an individual or individuals rather than an incorporated company
    • be on a property in the UK with purchase value of £600,000 or less
    • have a loan-to-value of between 91 per cent and 95 per cent
    • be originated between the dates specified by the scheme
    • be a repayment mortgage and not interest-only and
    • meet standard requirements in terms of the assessment of the borrower’s ability to pay the mortgage, for example a loan-to-income and credit score test

     

  10. 1 minute ago, Si1 said:

    neither here nor there, if they're going to create new civil service functions then better they are not in London so the civil servants actually have a clue what the rest of the country is doing

    I meant the impact it might have on local HPs?

  11. "Irrational exhuberance" just doesn't cut it anymore. :blink:

     

    On Thursday, asset manager VanEck will launch the VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF, which offers exposure to stocks with “the most bullish investor sentiment and perception.

    Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports and the self-proclaimed king of the retail trading boom, tweeted an elaborately produced “emergency press conference” video to debut the ETF.

    Emergency Press Conference - Introducing $BUZZ ETF

     

    “The product is a little mind-blowing,” said Tyler Gellasch, executive director of Healthy Markets. Gellasch thinks that the ETF “appears to be capitalizing on what could very well be determined by SEC and FINRA to be market manipulation,” he said in an interview.

    “People who may have direct influence over the value of the individual securities are involved in the offering of the product. Think of all the potential conflicts of interest and self-dealings you could have, things like potential front-running. Their own Twitter feeds, their own public statements could change the value of the underlying securities and impact the underlying portfolio.”

     

  12. Conveyancers get it, will Sunak listen?

    The Society of Licensed Conveyancers (SLC), the Bold Legal Group (BLG) and the Conveyancing Association, have united to pen a joint letter to the chancellor proposing that a completely different approach is taken to removing stamp duty on properties up to £500,000 which is currently due to expire on 31st March.

    The proposed approach is simple – allow any transaction on which a conveyancing lawyer has been formally instructed by a buyer before 28th February 2021 to qualify for the exemption provided the property purchase completes within 12 months.

    Simon Law, SLC Chairperson, said: “Restoring the property market to a sense of normality has to be the priority as we emerge from the effects of the Covid pandemic restrictions.

    “The SDLT ‘holiday’ has had the effect of injecting an unsustainable stimulus into the market. Bringing it to an end with a ‘cliff edge’ expiry date will result in a post code lottery worth several thousand pounds to some and not others, and has already created considerable stress on buyers, lawyers, lenders, search companies and local authorities amongst others.”

    By allowing ‘natural market forces to resume in the property market’, the post code lottery ‘would be removed, and transactions would follow their normal path to completion without an artificial time constraint’, it is claimed.

  13. 4 hours ago, 14stFlyer said:
    Yes, fossil fuel usage does concern me. This is why I am, after looking into it, anti-Bitcoin. It is quite simply the largest waste of fossil fuel burning in the world at present. Other industries may use more, but at least they produce something useful. 

    One thing for sure, if the US liberal left decides that BTC is bad for the planet, hold on to your hat...

    The NYT was first off the gates.

    Bitcoin’s bad energy

    Among the reasons Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is skeptical of the promise of Bitcoin (see above) is its energy use. As she told Andrew yesterday, “It’s an extremely inefficient way to conduct transactions and the amount of energy consumed in those transactions is staggering.

    On these shores, the Grauniad is already on it.

    Environmentalists say that mining is still a cause for concern particularly because miners will go wherever electricity is cheapest and that may mean places that use coal. According to Cambridge, China has the most bitcoin mining of any country by far. While the country has been slowly moving toward renewable energy, about two-thirds of its electricity comes from coal.

    Since there is no government body or organization that officially tracks where bitcoin is being mined and what type of electricity miners are using, there is no way of knowing whether miners are using electricity that is fueled by renewable energy or fossil fuels.

    Mining rigs can move from place to place depending on where energy is cheapest, which makes mining particularly hard to track.

    “The places where you mine [bitcoin] can be moved around and, in some cases, you don’t even know where they are”

     

  14. 17 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

    When in history have house prices ever been so high, with such accommodative central bank policy designed to keep normal interest rates from popping the bubble? There are parts of the UK where prices have yet to recover to 2008 prices? Many people waited many years after the late 80`s/early 90`s crash to still sell at a loss? If you don`t ever see yourself moving why bother even arguing the point on a website dedicated to affordable property?

    He's asking for a friend 🤣😂

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