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waitsee

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About waitsee

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  1. I was 18 when I first visited this country and I remember before coming to read an Italian guide (I am form Mafialand) saying : "England is a country that has more religions than sauces". Now I have been living here for 9 years and I love this country, although if you are not careful you can very easily get food poisoned. I have a personal theory (which of course I think is 100% right ): The only countries in the world where food is a nuisance are protestant countries: besides the UK, think about the utter Sh!t you find in Germany, Netherlands, Scandinavia. It reall looks like these countries are putting their biggest possible effort to produce the most disgusting edible things you can think of - Countries of any other religion compete in producing the most delicious things: Catholics (French, Italian, Spanish, Mexican), Muslims, Buddists (Thai, China), Indian (absolutely brilliants) and so on So my theory is as follow: Protestantism does not allow sins: there is no redemption such as confession, so you just cannot commit any sins (very sad). Enjoying food is one of the seven sins (I believe is called gluttony). When I first arrived in this country I have lived in a couple of house shares (with really nice British people), but I soon realisedthat if I spent time making a nice meal, buying the proper stuff, cooking it the way it has to be cooked, and so on, the English people in the house would go just crazy: the idea someone could spend time for a nice meal is considered just like a religious offense. For us in Europe lunch time is considered the most important moment in the day. If you are with friends somewhere, preparing food is the peak of the day: everyone gathers around, helps and discuss about the best way to cut this or how long to cook that and so on. Diferent worlds and different values
  2. Very interesting thread and excellent posts by w...y as usual. One thing looks bizzarre to me though : the steepness of the yield curve in the US: ATM the T-bills yield is incredibly lower than longer gov bonds. If the financial institutions were anticipating years of deflation they would move to longer bonds that still give some sort of yield, therefore flattening the curve a bit. The actual situation could be due to either: - Fear of inflation, so nobody wants to commit money in the mid term - Some big technical event sucking up short term bonds, like the Leeman Bro bankrupcy, as described above
  3. Where in London was the place? Can you give some more infos? What sort of properties and what location; do you have a web linky; how often they run these auctrions? Thanks
  4. UK House prices have lost much more than 50% already in one year if you buy at an auction, add inflation and factor it in other major currency (Euro, Dollar or yen). Some friends of mine from Italy came to London and told me they intended to buy a house here with a budget of around €500.000. I told them forget it for now, put your money in bonds, I will let you know when to buy. At the time €500k was about £335k and they were targeting a two bedroom flat in Shoredich for that price. After one year they have gain €30k in interest and now their €530k are worth £460. The same flat at todays auction price can be had for about £200k, saving about 55% in one year. I just contact them last night and told them to hang on their bonds for another couple of years, we'll see after that
  5. I just wrote a very long post, but the server went down, so I am resuming. I will try to be as clear as possible, but English is my fourth language, so excuse my mistakes. December 31 is fiscal year end in the US, so funds must close their balance sheets. If thir activity show a profit they will pay income tax on it. If they have in their books shares that are temporarily underperforming, they want to sell the in order to lock in a loss which will offset part of the profit computed for the tax bill. To make things simpler let's assume a year where the stock market was in a solid uptrend and all the postition in the book of fund A are long. Fund A as a profit for the year of 100, but in his books he owns share Y which was acqiored at 100 and is now trading at 85. Even though share Y has a very good potential and would normally be kept in the book, fund A sells it in order to lock in a loss of 100-85= 15. Now his taxable profit will be 85 insted of 100. Share Y will be repurchased a few days after. This year the situation is a bit different: - Most funds are in heavy losses, so they don't have to worry about tax on profit - The few one who show a profit are presulabily heavily short on the market. In most cases their undrperforming share will be shorts. So in order to get rid of an underperformin short they will have to buy that share (i.e. buy to cover a short position). This will tend to push the market higher. What I forgot to say in my previous posts is that since the number of funds in profit is extremely low this year, the "December effect" will be much lower than usual
  6. Certainly every year in December the market seems to go a bit crazy and doesn't follw the general trend of the year. The activity of funds for taxes purpose dominate the market rather than the fundamentals; also in January they will show to investors their portfolio so they load with the best performing share of the previous year, so that their client think they were very clever (which is called "window dressing"); after that in February the market tend to respond more to fundamentals or technical drivers. This year as I said the few gaining funds were the one acting on the downside, so I was expecting a good rebound in the markets due to dumping the losing short positions. For that reasons I am also looking out for the yen to lose a bit of grounda bit (I have a big postion long yen and might close it for the "December effect" and reopen it a few weeks later). It is one of the rule of seasonality in the market, to be taken with a pinch of salt, but generally quite reliable; of course a major fundamental event like a failed rescue of Detroit might overtake all of the above. Hope this helps
  7. Funny things happen in the US market every year in December (and in January as well). It is the end of fiscal years, so investors who have made profits tend to close the losing positions in order to materialise a loss to partly offset gains for fiscal reasons. Then they re open positions for January "window dressing". This year the only one who have are showing wins in their books are the ones who were short, so in order to close losing position they are buying shares, hence pushing the market higher. This is what is driving the rebounce ATM; this is also confirmed by the low volume of this pull-back. In my opinion we'll see new lows in February-March
  8. In theory the perfect dose of quantitative easing could be a way to get rid of the property market bubble with the least amount of pain, assuming that the easing is internationally coordinated, otherwise the fluctuation of currencies would be too strong. If we agree that HP is enormously overvalued compared to wages, shares, commodity (including gold and food) there are three ways to rebalance: 1) A house price crash in nominal terms 2) An increase of wages, commodities, shares while nominal house price stay constant 3) A mixture of the two above A third possibility would be what is happening ATM: letting the pound to the dogs, so that a big part of the HPC is not noticed by Joe Public: in the last year the property market in the UK has gone down about 40% in most other currencies: 15% in nominal value + 25% in devaluation of the £ (much more than that if expessed in Yen). But there is only a certain amount of currency devaluation possible, as copmetitive prices tend to revert to parity prices in the long term EDITED for usual typos
  9. Good post, but I don't really agree with the hyper pessimistic finale. If you have savings you can ATM still enjoy decent returns (most people here have one-two years banks deposit at somewhere around 5-6%) in an environment of falling prices. If you time you strategy accurately you can move them into equities, commodities, foreign currencies or a mixture of both before/during the inflationary phase. For examples share like BP or mining companies: exposed to commodities and gaining from sterling devaluation. If you only have your salary and want to buy a house, in theory your wage should rise as much as inflation and your mortgage repayment will be undervalued by inflation
  10. I have the feeling that the reflactionary politics at the moment are being strongly correlated internationally. Not only the US and the UK, but even Trichet is now hinting at the possibility of money printing, while the ECB has always been much more oriented towards figthing inflation. Japan and China also seem to be playing the game which leads me to believe that there is a sort of G20 masterplan in action. And I perfectly agree with ED Martini: the current deflactionary situation is really scary; it is only normal that governments have to try to fight against it. If they will succeed without overshooting into hyperinflationary territory is another story
  11. Thanks for the reply. Very interesting links for life in Tenerife, although it does not really deal with trends in property market. I am also interested in the other Canary islands, notably Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura
  12. At some stage a couple of years ago the owner of Ikea was thought to be the richest man in the world, also due to the stronger Euro compared to the dollar. Although difficult call as the company is private. Apparently he was the only person that if he dropped a €500 note should not bother to pick it up, because he was making more than that in the time needed! Apparently he lives in a modest little house, drives a very old car and only shops in local markets at closing time when food is discounted
  13. IMO if you interested in buying something you should fix a maximum price you are ready to pay. Then you just stick to your plan, regardless of any ather bids coming
  14. I am back from a week in Tenerife and for the first time I found a place abroad where I would really like to live. The climate is perfect for me as it does not get over the high 20's and I cannot stand excessive heat. Also everything is very cheap (free tax), excellent food, very friendly people, decent golf. I never bought a house in London so I have a good pot of cash and was thinking about buying here after the forthcoming market crash. But suddenly I realise that in the Canary for the same amount I could maybe buy a house and live for several years. Does anybody have any knowledge of the property market, especially in Tenerife, Grand Canaria, Lanzarote, Fuerteventura? Other infos about quality of life in the different islands very appreciated
  15. What I find quite sad is that the bunch of idiot at Experia will probably be one of the very few business to make money in the next few years, while a huge amount of serious, competent business will go bankrupt. But this is the ridiculous wold we are living in Edited for the usual mistyping (being a bloody foreigner)
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