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toodimm

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Everything posted by toodimm

  1. Here is the link to the newsnight iplayer, it wont be ready yet, but it should be here tomorrow. Linky goodness I'm sure this post will just get burried with everyone poking the troll.
  2. Is this what we have in store? Are we in the same leaky boat as America?
  3. They are still in mass denial, remember they have been force fed property porn for the last 4 years telling them that their houses are worth the ludicrous values that they believe they are. Its going to take direct exposure for people to get this, for example a friend who is a forced seller. Two days after the latest nationwide data came out showing the sharpest monthly decline in house prices so far I got this text from my friend who is trying to sell '...A shortage of mortgages appears to be the problem..... guess we are at rock bottom now, just a case of how long it lasts for...' I really have no idea why the shapest decline in prices so far would make anyone think that we are now at 'rock bottom'. People who are not forced sellers just simply do believe that their houses have devalued as much as they have.
  4. I tend to agree with you. The fundamentals are still ******ed, but as Lehman showed, not as apocalyptically ******ed as the market seemed to be expecting. The Dow futures are trading incredibly at the moment, and seem to be trying to ensure that the market opens tomorrow at over 10,000.
  5. Just how high can dead cats bounce? How much of todays (Mondays) global stock market bounce can be put down to which of the following factors. 1) The big Brown Global bail out (BBGBO from now on ) 2) The fact that the Lehman's cds was not disastrous 3) A suckers rally I still feel that the Lehman's auction on Friday was the real catalyst for today’s events, and that Brown will now be able to take full credit (No pun intended) that it was all down to his plan.
  6. Dow 8634 Gold 855 Silver 10.18 sp500 924 Nasdaq 1315 USD/JPY 100.55 USD/CHF 1.129 US T-bond 116.4 T-Note 113.6 GBP/USD 1.714
  7. I didn't realise that there was a CDS market for blame! Britain blames America Germany blames Britain Britain blames Iceland what will Gordons market position in this when all the blame is unwound.
  8. I’d like to consolidate the collective knowledge of useful economic resources of the people on this forum into one thread. (I do not mean the cheapest supermarket to buy beans from!) This site (market index) gives you access to a play trading account, you have to give your e-mail address, but then you can spend days watching live data on all sorts of markets. I would appreciate it if anyone can give a link to up to data LIBOR and TED-Spread data. I would also like to get hold of some old (a couple of days old) second by second market data, in excel form, for a c++ project I’m working on, I don’t want to have to input it all by hand! Cheers
  9. Short selling is where you borrow a share, sell it on the market, wait, then buy it back, and give it back to the person you borrowed it from. (You pay a fee to the person you borrowed the share form). Naked shorting, is where you sell a share that you dont actully own and haven't even borrowed, and then buy it back. Overall you are neutral to the share that you sold then bought back, you are effectivly betting on a reduction in share price.
  10. If all the people who are hording beans have to start eating them, then I'm sure we'll see/hear a lot of de-leveraging.
  11. If you look at my original post I was not calling the bottom of the stock market, or the housing market, but suggesting that finally the events on Friday may have stemmed the tide of receding confidence. Yes confidence will still wane, but it will be more of a trickle than a flood. Unfortunately if I am right and this is the faintest glimmer of hope, then Gordon will be able to claim it was his 'bold moves', when really he had nothing what so ever to do with a sucsessful Lehmans unwinding. I admit that it was rather disingenuous of me to name this thread 'Calling The Bottom’; I knew people wouldn't be able to resist it.
  12. Hi I don't know which chart you are refering to, but I assume you are talking about national debt, this is the debt a government has, not the debt of the government, companies and individuals all together. If I buy a government bond, national savings and inverstment for example, I am lending to the government, and national debt increase by the £50 of NSI which I bought. All that national debt is owed to anyone in the world who has bought those government bonds.
  13. Here it is on bbc, its such a non event it might as well not have happened!
  14. yup, ultimatly you have about 350 institutions with a combined total of $365bn to pay out because of Lehman CDS sold to others, but that same 350 institutions also expect to get in $357bn because of of Lehman CDS contracts they bought from others. In total there is only $8bn which actually has to be found.
  15. Spot on the money, you win the prize! Here we go with the usual left wing nonsense; there has always been a tiny but loud minority of politically naive people who belong to the socialist workers party and attend these sorts of events every weekend (In London they are more regular than busses!) The bbc did report this here, at the top of its local news local to London section, which is more exposure than such a fantastic none event as this deserves. Up to 150 people attended, I will probably put right and told that the bbc misreported this, and the number which attended was much larger (Maybe I even attended it myself without realising J). Even the footage form youtube shot by the protesters themselves had only 50 people in shot at any one time (unless you counting the police too). If you expect every group of 150 people who are protesting about some nonsense to make the headlines of the six o’clock news, then the news would have to be very long indeed. I particularly enjoyed the number of ‘rioters’ in the youtube footage with expensive handheld digital cameras; they probably got them on credit J I have sympathy for some people who attend these sorts of events. Being passionate but misguided is one of the characteristics of being young, but the older people who attend are just fantastic caricatures of an outdated socialist position. It will be interesting which members of this site ally themselves with the ridiculous position expressed by this demonstration. I know that there are a few here who are desperate for this economic problem to bring everyone down to their level. The salaries and bonuses that have been taken in the city do anger me immensely, as do the social injustice of the scale of the gap between the rich and the poor. However to think that dismantling the market make more people better off is just spectacularly naive.
  16. From what I understand of the CDS structure, it is the total amount of CDS paper that is linked to the Lehman bonds which is estimated as being between $350bn to $400bn, but this is not the amount of money which has to be found to pay the actual bond holders. The calculation you really need to do is How much Lehmans issued in bonds = A What fraction of those bonds were insured with CDS = B Do not include the insurance of the insurance (this is the important part, stay with me) Take the cents in the dollar auction value 0.08625 = C The total amount of dollars which need to be found because of Lehmans going down is AxBxC, where A is is a tiny fraction of $500bn, and B and C are both numbers smaller than one. See this article at forbes Yes, $8 billion is a lot, but it is not half a trillion, and it (hopefully) is spread far and wide, which is the nature of the CDS market.
  17. I'm not in a position to be considering investing; I have no money to invest! I agree that there remains the problem of the huge amount of debt 'secured' against worthless assets, and this will have to be solved by the general public making the unpleasant shift from consumption and borrowing to production and saving. This shift will be accompanied by a long deep recession, particularly felt in the US and UK. I am not predicting the end to this financial crisis, but saying that we have edged (only slightly) away from the Armageddon scenario, to which I was beginning to think was likely (I now have to spend the rest of the year eating my weight in beans). I'm not in a position to be considering investing; I have no money to invest! I agree that there remains the problem of the huge amount of debt 'secured' against worthless assets, and this will have to be solved by the general public making the unpleasant shift from consumption and borrowing to production and saving. This shift will be accompanied by a long deep recession, particularly felt in the US and UK. I am not predicting the end to this financial crisis, but saying that we have edged (only slightly) away from the Armageddon scenario, to which I was beginning to think was likely (I now have to spend the rest of the year eating my weight in beans). The spectre of a complete meltdown still exists, but the odds were reduced on Friday.
  18. I just get the edge of the feeling that we may look back at Friday as the black day, from which things slowly begin to move forward. The Lehman CDS unwinding was not catastrophic. I think that many banks were anticipating this event to be catastrophic, and the fact that it was not may now begin to induce a more positive mentality. This does not mean that I think the recession is cancelled, or that the house price slump will stop, but I do think that we (the global economy) has taken a delicate step back from the brink of a total meltdown. I'm fully prepared for Monday/Tuesday to make a mockery of this post.
  19. But which was the primary bubble from which the others were blown?
  20. I know all of these are interlinked, but I'm wondering where people here believe the primary bubble behind all this really is? consumer credit CDS market Houses Stocks Commodities Somewhere more exotic
  21. and its now dropped of a cliff
  22. I'm not sure I totally understand, but I'll put up an analogy and wait for it to be shot down. Say A places a £1 bet with B at odds of 1,000,000:1 that Elvis returns riding the Loch Ness Monster If the Loch Ness Monster was sighted, hence increasing the odds of the event happening, B would want to cover himself, he would do this by taking out insurance from C. Depending on what odds C offers, and how much cover A wants, we could get somthing like. B places a £1000 bet with C at odds of 1,000:1 that Elvis returns riding the Loch Ness Monster. So the market for this particular event is £2,000,000 (£1,000,000 form B to A, and another million from C to but if the event occours there is only £1,000,000 that actually has to be found anywhere. Thus when the guy says only 2% of the $400bn needs to be paid, I think what is happening is that the total sum of the chian is worth $400bn, but in reality only 2% of this will actually have to be found by anyone.
  23. Just want to tag on the end of this question, What time today do the CDS contracts have to be resolved? Does this have to be public, will we just find out that some banks have gone, or will we (the public) actually get to see who owed what to whom.
  24. Not seen this posted on here yet, appologies if it has. 1 2 3 4 5 6 or as a podcast here Somehow I managed to resist the temptation to make the third link to two girls
  25. Judging by the length of this thread, I think its time to go long on Aluminium
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