Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

toodimm

Members
  • Posts

    170
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by toodimm

  1. Google is going to make a property listing site which is free for estate agents to use. Might we be saying goodbye to the rightmove index? linkety link link
  2. Oh, and they are expected to be able to figure that out without a calculator.
  3. I'd love to hear you voice that opinion if a nurse had to set up a drip for you and calculate the IV flow rate for 200 mL of 0.9% NaCl IV over 120 minutes where the infusion set has drop factor of 20 gtts/mL. I bet you want them to have more than GSCE maths!
  4. Quick solution to this problem: Pay postal workers by cheque, delivered through the post.
  5. I love it when people write this sort of nonsense. If you are sure of this, then its time to make your fortune! If other markets slavishly followed the DOW, then you could use the DOW to front run other markets. DOW up, quickly by FTSE and DAX, before they follow the DOW. I think its better to consider a global index, of which US corporations form the largest component. All major world indices track this global index, but each with a weighting toward their home country.
  6. In people experience with rightmove, if a property changes to Sold STC, and then disapears altogether, will that mean that it must have been sold, or could it reappear later? Cheers
  7. why am I going to waste my time delivering the goods to you in person? I can make more money specialising in the goods that you want to buy and employing somone else who specialises in transportation. Or alternativly you can pay me a premium for me to deliver it to you personally.
  8. true, but if I live in manchester and you live in newcastle, and we want to trade, then there will be a steep transaction cost in you delivering your copper plated zink disk to me. Or we could just let the banks handle that transaction, and skim what they will.
  9. That all depends on how you choose to implement them. Cryptographically it is possible to implement totally anonymous, secure digital money. But then it all depends on the implementation choosen.
  10. If you had any evidence of the turnover on other webforums then I'm sure you would have included it in your post, but what your stating is purly subjective. I think that there would be a far more relevent stat to discover for this website, but the effort to fish for it is more that I can be bothered to make. I would like to see the length of stay of posters on this site, plotted against the date they joined. It would be interesting to see if there has been a slow turnover of posters over the whole time, or if there was a sudden exodus when house prices reduced a certain amount.
  11. Yes, but its a forum about house prices where people made the effort to make regular posts. To only be left with 20% of those original people, particularly when the argument has swung dramatically in their direction, seem quite unlikley. Unless however those people have seen the drop that they were expecting, and don't believe in the appocolyptic predictions.
  12. True in the individual cases, but what supprised me, was such a huge percentage of the more recent posts is comprised of people who joined relatively recently. Also, 20% of the original posters a tiny number still to be active here.
  13. I’ve just been doing a bit of very unscientific data gathering on the poster here. Of the posters who were active at the end of 2004, only about 20% are still active now. Of the currently active posters 44% joined in 2008 or later. My reading of this is that the vast majority of the people who saw this mess coming have now left the board. And that the current posters are composed of a large percentage who only started to post on this site after the economic problems were obvious to the mainstream media. The people who were able to correctly predict top of the markets now no longer feel that there is anything left to say, and there are a lot of people who are simply jumping on the obvious downtrend. I’m am still convinced by the likes of Denninger, that the worst is still yet to come, however the change of posters on this board is inclining me to reconsider this view.
  14. I did, but neither of the two stories that I pointed to were corroborated over the weekend, so my prediction doesn't count. I wouldn't like to count myself as a true member of this site if I were able to make correct black day predictions
  15. If this story is confirmed over the weekend, then I think we have a genuine candidate for the Blackest of Mondays. got this story from this ticker
  16. Yield curve. The government (and business) issue bonds to get funding, this is just a loan to the government to the person purchasing the bond. Bonds have a lifetime, when they reach maturity, the bondholder redeems them, with the government paying an agreed amount of money; this pre agreed amount is called the face value of the bond. Clearly people will not loan money to the Government for ‘free’, but will require interest be paid. This interest is called the coupon (old non electronic bonds had detachable coupons). At regular intervals throughout the bonds life, the coupon would be detached, sent to the bond issuer who pays the pre-arranged value of the coupon. The story is slightly trickier at the beginning when the bonds are issued. When you buy a bond, you do not pay the face value (that’s what’s paid to you when it matures), you pay the market rate, decided by how many people want to buy those bonds, and how many people are selling them. As the face value of the bond and the coupon are fixed, a change of the price of the bond will change the interest rate it pays. Imagine a fantasy bond, with a face value of £100, paying a coupon of £10 every year, and maturing after 10 years. If I buy that bond for £100, then it pays £10 interest per year, which is 10%. However if I only pay £80 for that bond, then £10 interest per year is not 12.5%, and conversely if I pay £120, then the coupon of £10 per year corresponds to an interest rate of 8.3%. So the interest rate paid by the bond varies inversely with the price of the bond. If bond prices go up, then they are paying less interest, if they go down then they are paying more interest. When a long-term bond is near maturity, then I would care more about the face value than the coupon. In our example if I was buying a ten year bond that was in its 9th year, then I will receive one coupon of £10, and the principle of £100 in a years time, therefore I would expect to somewhat under £110 for the bond, because that’s all I’m going to get for it. If I’m buying a freshly issued 10year bond, then I really care about the coupon, as it entitles me to 10 payments of £10. If you think that inflation is going to kick in over the next 10 years, then the face value of the bond will be next to worthless, and you will be buying the bond just for it s coupon. There are all sorts of government bonds out there with various lengths of time until they reach maturity. Each of these will have a certain interest rate associated with them, because of the current market price for the bond and the value of the coupon. Now you can plot a graph with the x-axis showing the length of time till maturity, and the y-axis showing the interest rate paid by such a bond. That graph is called the yield curve. The yield curve shows the markets idea of what inflation will look like over the next 30 years. It also shows if the market thinks that the government will be issuing lots of bonds (supply), or if the central bank will be buying those bonds up (demand). Government debt is considered the safest (least likely to default), so interest rates charged on other issues of debt are calculated relative to the rates on the government debt. If for example you want a 30 year mortgage, then go and look at the rates paid for 30year government bonds (the long end of the yield curve), and add a bit on.
  17. I think that Denninger made his mind up ages ago, he has plumed for the deflation route. I read his article as contrasting the “conventional wisdom†(Schiff), with his own take on the situation, which is deflationary. Personally I think that Denninger argues a more convincing point, what with his use of evidence and the like. Where as Shiff falls back on the same dubious analogies again and again. From what I have read, I get the feeling that we are again on the cusp of something major and bad, but before it happens it seems that all the bears on this site will have to turn to bulls.
  18. Holy shit. If both the story and the bonds are real, then all crap is going to be let loose in the next few days. I really hope that I'm being gullible and this story is just made up. story comment from the ticker
  19. Oh for fucks sake what next? Lord Cowell and Lady Mccall
  20. 61.32% Nazi, that's about what I'd expect from this site.
  21. I think that they are being irresponsible because they are releasing a story (which I do think needs to be released) in such a way as to shift public and political attention away from the much more important issue, which is the possible collapse of our economy. This is one of their responsibilities, but it is not as you suggest, their only responsibility. Clearly if making money for their sharholders was their only concern, then they would have become a red top. I think that it’s a false dichotomy to suggest that it is either the MP’s or the Telegraph, which are being irresponsible, when it is likely that it is both. If this country were run by referenda, then I’m sure that many governments would have fallen to the latest shift in mood of the populous. Would you have asked for a general election to have been held as soon as the poll tax was brought in?
  22. I know what the Telegraph are claiming (and they know what the MP's are claiming ), but I think that it is clear to most people the they have two aims when deciding how to release this information. 1) To sell more papers 2) To get rid of the current government both of these goals are fair enough in my book, but I think that we have to be realistic and accept that these are their aims.
  23. To begin with I think that what the Telegraph is doing is very important, and desperately needed to be done. However I think that the manor it has chosen disseminate the information is questionable. Clearly the editorial staff know they are sitting on a goldmine of a story, and they are determined to keep it running for as long as possible. By releasing the information daily and slowly, they have shifted the focus of the government, the opposition and parliament away from the second part of the economic collapse. When things economic start to go wrong again, should the Telegraph take any of the responsibility for the shift in political focus which may blunt the countries response?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.