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General Belgrano

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About General Belgrano

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  1. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Nearly spat my coffee up the screen. Article on Radio 4 Today now, Abramovich is looking for a buyer for Chelsea FC... It begins Sanctions are starting to bite, Russians cashing in chips and leaving Treasure Island?
  2. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    I can't help but feel the whole manufactured situation in Ukraine is pantomime, if Russia wanted to invade and re-establish USSR ver2, they would have done so by now despite provocation by McCain and Nuland via Yats and the Right Sector in Kiev. I think the game is a bit more complicated and may also be related to bankers throwing themselves off the top of High Buidings or shooting themselves with nail guns... Most likely the whole thing will drag on through the summer with tit-for-tat embargoes and sanctions, which I will only take seriously when Abramovich announces his is leaving to live in Thailand. Then the fun starts as winter approaches and the gas is turned off, how the little piggies will squeal. But if fact this was the plan all along because rolling black outs were unavoidable, then as the flowers come out in spring Election time. In the mean time, with all this separatist talk in Scotland will the English Army, be sent to Scotland to shoot up the referendum polling stations? I read yesterday the London press trying to say Salmon was a friend of Putin, just as Farage was smeared a few weeks back...?
  3. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    1938? what happened then?
  4. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Terrible scenes tonight in Odessa. I don't see how Russia can avoid invasion now. This could have all been avoided some weeks ago, with the departure of Yanukovych and elections. Now expect invasion and annexation. The western leaders should hang there heads in shame, also the MSM. Expect an influx to the UK of Eastern Europeans escaping the war, I remember how it was with Yugoslavia in the 90's
  5. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    UKR Ground troops appear to have English speaking mercenaries with them (I guess to give them some sort of backbone). All attack helicopters shot down, rescue chopper attacked. Another pilot captured.... I guess the problem is that the mercs don't want to get captured and paraded, remember the news agenda in the internet/twitter/face book era is impossible to stop. Civilians are now moving forward to stop the troops, UKR troops don't have the will to fire on their own people. I guess we will find out later on, after the markets close if a 48 hour war will start. Tonight there is only 11% moon illumination...Increasing over the coming days, ground is firm enough for the T-90
  6. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    The media coverage is strange. In the film "When the wind blows" and also "The day after" it is the same, random radio items about "talks breaking down" in places that most Americans or Brits have never heard of. Then all of a sudden the missiles are launched! It's interesting to consider that these days of internet, twitter, mobile phones and due to immigration we might actually know people in these countries. We are also able to check facts and sources, something that during the Cold War would involve a trip to a library. Therefore most people would accept the BBC version of events. I get the feeling that the game really is up and TPTB really need a serious war to a) cull the population justify their existence c) make technology advances d) remind the little people the importance of tax and how lucky they are.
  7. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    The problem as ever is geography. Ukraine is not in a position to not have a relationship with it's neighbour Russia. It has land borders and millions of people brought up in the Soviet Union, many born in Russia or born to Russians during this period. Ukraine has resources and vital industry (Uranium and Jet Engine plants), it has a route to the West for trade and transit. The US would not be able to protect them, even if significant armoured land forces still existed in NATO's West Germany, most of these groups fought in Desert Storm and them returned to the states......in 1992/3. to be disbanded or turned into national guard. The rest of the Euro countries are not politically able to fight wars (this was by design after WW2). Even if the will there, I'm not sure the people would follow their leaders "over the top". 9th of May parades in Moscow, will be interesting this year. The Russians call the victory day (over Nazis) and National Spirit will be at an all time high. This has also been the period of year when the Nazi's have been parading in the Baltic states for the last 20 years. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/14/latvia-minister-einars-cilinskis-nazi-memorial-row To quote the sketch. "Are we supposed to be the baddies?"
  8. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    On another board somebody mentioned the chaos in Bagdad when the Americans drove in to "Liberate" the citizens and were disappointed to discover they weren't overly happy about it. Davis Starkey mentioned this phenomena on QT some years back, I think during the Libyan Campaign. He mentioned that during 1944 General De Gaulle had to lead the British and Americans into Paris, to keep the Parisans calm about the need to continue the fight to Germany proper. Seems now that the Ukrainian Government have been forced to send the 25th Airborne Division to the East to Liberate the citizens. Seeing as they are all the same race, religion and speak Russian as a common language, things are not going to plan. (compared with Bagdad with non-Arabic, Christian, Americans trying to play Baseball and American football with Bagdad kids....!) With stories of lack of food and defections, however.... So two things struck me when watching the scenes in Eastern Ukraine. Firstly it seems that the Russians have a significant organised Cyber Army, especially on Twitter, pumping out all sorts of Pictures and #tags. They seem to be commenting in the UK medias news items, I guess German, French and Spanish. I wonder how big your team would need to be to control this new media.? Secondly, tomorrow is the meeting with Lavorov in Geneva. This then sets up a long weekend when sadly I guess the tanks will roll. This gives 4 days of fighting, while everyone in the west goes visiting relatives, boozing and enjoying the sunshine. Most likely an Armoured thrust from Belgorod past Kharkiv to Dnipropetrovs'k and the river. Expect also a breakout to Transnistra via Odessa. Anbody going to get leathered on Thursday night will probably see a bit on Newsnight after the pub and wake up Tuesday to conscription papers landing on the doormat.
  9. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Here is graphic of Uranium mines 2005. As you can see this is a strategic resource, Russia either has it or NATO has it. It's as simple as that.
  10. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Ukraine authorities have broken up the separatist demos and Russia claims US Contractors are dressed in Ukrainian uniforms? I guess this escalation has a couple of weeks to go yet. The ground is still a bit soft for big tanks like the T-90 to roll across the border, I believe the term is Rasputitsa season. Meanwhile 2 questions 1) How do American astronauts get to work? 2) How will NATO get it's hardware out of Afghanistan?
  11. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    One things is for sure, this was all planned out months, years, if not decades before. Probably in the 1980's USSR staff colleges, in the nightmare situation of an unthinkable collapse of the mighty USSR, it would be wise to consider that your opponent's promises of non expansion are not sincere. The Russian forces seem well kitted out and better trained than before, the size of Russia means the armoured groups can train and get outfitted for combat thousands of Kms from the Front. Tanks coming from the Urals on train carriages, one per carriage means fully loaded and fuelled 70,000+ kilograms (that's the same as a fully loaded/fuelled plane!). Remember also Russia is the only army (after WW2 Germany was defeated) to have experience of real manoeuvre warfare due to the vast amount of territory. (how easy is it to move an army 90 degrees?) Let alone 4 or 5 Armies together! Missile tech is a least 20 years ahead of the west (S-300 and S-400, Ashkont, etc) due to resources and R&D not in the conventional aviation area, or foolishly going down the Drone route for more than local or long distance recon. Next move is on the Russian side, after the extremely weak US/EU response, hopefully there will be another round of talks. But the Poles,Lithuanians and Ukrainians are allegedly dusting off plans for a joint armoured brigade. I think securing the Polish border would probably be about the best that the west can hope for and maybe a UN agreed split of Ukraine and demilitarised zone. New Armoured formation The problem is the west is morally bankrupt after the Blair/Bush adventures in Iraq and shown to be impotent in Syria. At best a cold war two is inevitable and also the breakdown of globalisation, this has massive consequences for the next 50 years. The move to watch out for is the same as the Germans suffered during the Bagration Operation with a thrust towards Kaliningrad, followed by a pause when they reached the Baltic Sea. (in WW2 this put pressure on Warsaw, then an uprising, now I guess UN negotiation on humanitarian grounds) The terrian is the same as 1941-45 and the routes to the West for Armour the same, avoid the Pripet Marshes in Belarus. Belarus needs keeping an eye on, they have already request Russian Fighter Jets to be based there to counter USAF F-16s moving to Poland and F-15s to Baltics. If they allow Russian amour groups free passage, then the Dniepr river can be crossed upstream of Kiev inside of Belarus. Expect airborne drop West of Kiev, amour link up via Belarus and/or a thrust through Lithuania to Kaliningrad, then a pause before UN renegotiation. Here is an old picture:- 1941 When dealing with a nuclear power, Cuban Misslile crisis is the only real equivalent. I found this Curtis Documentary linked from another thread interesting (or terrifying). The important thing from the documentary is that, humans are not predictable. Eventually JFK told the Russians retaliation will not be proportional, one missile from Cuba, expect total destruction, we send the whole lot. This ended the crisis, I'm not sure Obama is cut from the same cloth.....
  12. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Media seems to think it's all fixed now. Last time I checked 10,000 Ukrainian troops are basically being held on their bases. Russians are digging in on Crimean peninsular. Major Naval ports are not available to their owners... However I think the picture is a bit more complex, you would have thought that a smaller weaker military force could have denied the use of the ferry port by sinking a ship in the harbour mouth. (This was done in the UK at Weymouth Harbour in WW2). Taking the Royal Marines at Port Stanley during the initial Agantinian invasion, regimental honour requires some kind of defence, so deaths, wounded and when out of ammo, no re-enforcement possible then a surrender. Market garden and Germans at Stalingrad would be a similar example. The lack of action may be due to some level of common purpose between the 2 sides. Lets face it 2 weeks ago the police were fighting against the Svobodo and other elements in Kiev, senior military were fired, but why? Did they refuse to back the police or not want to get involved in internal suppression at all? The next move involves gas and money, Putin holds all the cards, the west has found itself caught with pants around the ankles. I read a tweet (I guess from an American) today. It said basically it started in Benghazi, nobody got punished, now USA is seen as a weak and fading power, like the Brits after Suez. China is the one to watch now, their relationship with the energy producing countries.
  13. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    The moon cycle is going against the Russians every night from the 1st, therefore benefiting the defenders. Vlad is the master strategist, I suspect he will draw this out, switch off the gas. This morning oil etc is up, so he makes more money, switches off the taps and Europe suffers, I'm not sure that friendly nations can increase supply so much. This Budapest memorandum is still a legal hurdle and forces war with the UK,France and USA (Nuclear Armed Powers). Failure for these powers to act against aggression basically causes a crisis of the integrity of these parts of international law. No enforcement would encourage Syria to not comply with the Chemical weapons agreement, Iran with Uranium Enrichment, Spain with Gibralter and Argantina and the Falklands. Those who study history will see a similarity with the start of WW1 and WW2. Could China be the key.? Who will they support?
  14. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Estonia,Lithuania,Latvia,Poland,Czech,Hungary,Slovakia,Romania and Bulgaria ready to call up reservists. Kerry trying to claim the high moral ground and after the "wests" wars in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan looking increasingly foolish. Russia is digging in in Crimea and I guess waiting there moment, probably once the Ukrainian Ground troops and NATO show their hand.
  15. General Belgrano

    The Ukraine Chernobyl Thread

    Currently a Hellenic Airforce Learjet over Ukraine..... Also another Learjet from Russia doing circles over Ukraine....Something is up
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