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Compukit UK101

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Everything posted by Compukit UK101

  1. municipal bond collapse in the USA triggering general bond collapse. Terrorist attack on the Vatican possibly involving nuclear weapons.
  2. Isn't this just an opportunity for another airbnb copycat to compete with airbnb.
  3. I always preferred variable interest for the following reason. I found that the variable rate repayment mortgage had no charges for overpaying (and the interest was calculated daily). This meant that any extra money I managed to save up was available for me to pay of additional chunks and effectively cut the term of the mortgage. I found it was a great way of saving because the 'effective' return on your money is what they are charging you. I think I was getting about 10-15% yield. I used to arrive at the Halifax and pay of big chunks like 5 thousand in a single visit. The lady at the counter would look a me like I was a madman (this was in the heady-days of the early 2000s when everybody else was borrowing like crazy). She always asked me if I wanted to adjust the payments but I didn't. I adjusted the term a few times though (from 15 years down to about 5). Eventually I had about 50 quid left outstanding and then I adjusted the payments, just to be annoying. I think the monthly repayment was about 7p per month. I used to get statements every few months with 0.07. It was very amusing. It was also a cheap way to get the bank to look after the deeds. Eventually I got bored with this and payed the outstanding off.
  4. The more things change the more they stay the same ... "The train bore me away, through the monstrous scenery of slag-heaps, chimneys, piled scrap-iron, foul canals, paths of cindery mud criss-crossed by the prints of clogs. This was March, but the weather had been horribly cold and everywhere there were mounds of blackened snow. As we moved slowly through the outskirts of the town we passed row after row of little grey slum houses running at right angles to the embankment. At the back of one of the houses a young woman was kneeling on the stones, poking a stick up the leaden waste-pipe which ran from the sink inside and which I suppose was blocked. I had time to see everything about her—her sacking apron, her clumsy clogs, her arms reddened by the cold. She looked up as the train passed, and I was almost near enough to catch her eye. She had a round pale face, the usual exhausted face of the slum girl who is twenty-five and looks forty, thanks to miscarriages and drudgery; and it wore, for the second in which I saw it, the most desolate, hopeless expression I have ever-seen. It struck me then that we are mistaken when we say that 'It isn't the same for them as it would be for us,' and that people bred in the slums can imagine nothing but the slums. For what I saw in her face was not the ignorant suffering of an animal. She knew well enough what was happening to her—understood as well as I did how dreadful a destiny it was to be kneeling there in the bitter cold, on the slimy stones of a slum backyard, poking a stick up a foul drain-pipe." ― George Orwell, The Road to Wigan Pier
  5. Well she is certainly aptly named to tell us exactly how deep the rabbit hole goes.
  6. Then, when every last cent Of their money was spent, The Fix-it-Up Chappie packed up And he went. And he laughed as he drove In his car up the beach, “They never will learn No. You can’t teach a Sneetch!” —Dr. Seuss, “The Sneetches”
  7. Here's Karl Denninger's view. He thinks it is a big mistake. http://market-ticker...www?post=212111
  8. Come home to a real fire. Buy a cottage in North Wales. http://www.youtube.c...qqHvGKmK4#t=18s
  9. When I was a lad I served a term as an office boy in an attorney’s firm. I cleaned the windows and I swept the floor, and I polished up the handle on the big front door. ...
  10. Yes, I probably am. Perhaps I should stick to the day job.
  11. I suppose I'm suggesting that even if I did call it it would not happen since the action of calling it would cancel the possibility of it happening on that day. It's kind of counter intuitive. Short answer is no (I'm not calling it).
  12. 2031 ! This reminds me of a old Soviet Joke. A woman bought a washing machine in 1980 in Moscow. She was advised that the delivery date March 31st 1994. She replied that it was inconvenient that day as she had somebody redoing her kitchen.
  13. Schrodinger's Crash I've been thinking about a phenomenon called Schrödinger's Cat (SC) recently. It is the idea that the outcome of an event can change depending on whether or not it is being observed. It is all to do with quantum physics which I dont really understand but I thought of an interesting twist on it related to finance. On this forum there are regular posts of people predicting that there will be a stock market crash the next day. Really, it's just a bit of fun, but it's always struck me that it never happens on the day they predict it. There are usually very good reasons for the prediction like a country has just defaulted or an earthquake or terrorist attack has occurred. If anything it almost seems as if the opposite occurs much more often when a prediction of doom is posted. What if this is in fact true! We're heading into the realms of philosopy/theology here I know. Sir Ken Robinson ( )Emotional Insurance I used to make bets on the outcome of football matches and I was absolutely terrible at it. I was so bad that sometimes, it almost seemed as if whatever I did the opposite would happen. I once though I might be able to develop a strategy where I do the exact opposite of what my 'gut feel' was telling me. Would it make me rich ? The irony is that, according to what I am proposing, that very action would affect the outcome - so I might have still lost. The interesting thing is the greatest win I ever had (by some margin) was when I followed this logic (unconsciously). I developed a strategy called "Emotional Insurance". Essentially, the idea is that one bets on the outcome which will make you most unhappy so that in the event it occurs at least you get a payout to cushion the blow. Anybody interested in football may remember that there was a European Championship qualifying match between England and Croatia at Wembley (http://news.bbc.co.u...als/7103110.stm). England hadn't been doing particularly well in the qualifiers, under Steve McLaren, and were in the un-enviable position of needing to draw with Croatia in order to qualify for the finals. However, the match was at Wembley so everybody was expecting at least a draw. I was desperate for England to qualify but had a fear that if I bet of them then sods law would inevitable apply. I therefore decided to do precisely the opposite. I would bet heavily on 'Croatia to Win' on the basis that if they didn't I would be very happy that England had qualified. If England lost then I would have a big stash of money to console me. The rest is history. Croatia won at odds of 8 to 1. The insurance payed out, big time! If England ever get to a European Championship or World Cup final I will bet several hundred pounds on them losing. :-) Stock Market observations Bill Bonner, Financial Reckoning Day The stock market seems to be more driven by what people are feeling that by what they are thinking. Furthermore, nobody seems able to predict precisely when the market will turn. There are numerous people who claim to have predicted the 2008 crash (e.g. Peter Schiff, Max Keiser) but from what I can remember nobody predicted it to the day. They all seemed to observe the many symptoms that were there but when it actually happened I think it took everybody by surprise. I think Jim Rogers is always stating that he is terrible at timing the market (http://www.cnbc.com/...ing_Is_Terrible). Is it possible that the market will only finally crash on the day that nobody expects it. The ingredients for the outcome are present but the catalyst will be that nobody is predicting it. Do stock market crashes 'arrive like a thief in the night'. The situation in the UK housing market today seems eerily similar. The market is in an absolutely dire state. The Market has crashed in Ireland and the USA but for some bizarre reason, which nobody can quite understand, the UK market just refuses to budge. It has not really gone up or down, it just sits there in suspended animation waiting for a catalyst. However, this catalyst is not that Greece will default or that Israel will attack Iran but that nobody will think anything is going to happen. If you look through history, there is an undeniable self-correcting mechanism at work that, as Bill Bonner used to say, "insures people get what they deserve and not necessarily what they expect". This principle is no less true of governments than it is of the individual investor. Perhaps this applies just as much to the people who are speculating on house prices crashing as house prices booming which may be precisely why everything is at a standstill. Beware the Ides of March William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar Today I was going to make a prediction of a Market Crash but I think now that it probably will just be another day and nothing much will happen. Willy Wonka and the Chocolate factory (Columbia Pictures, Roald Dahl)
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