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Peter Hun

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Posts posted by Peter Hun

  1. I like this thread already.

    CEBR- only 8% more to go.

    Lloyds- only 6% more to go.

    HPC posters- But, but, but......... blah blah economy blah blah ponzi blah blah unemployment blah blah McBroon blah blah blah


    I like this thread too.

    But.. but..but only 8% more to go, but.. but..but only 6% more to go, blah, blah, we hope, blah, blah, we guess, blah, blah, shriek, panic, blah, blah.


    In the real world, they haveng got a ******ing clue. One fact we do know, prices are still falling. ROTFLMAO

  2. spanish market is improving in some areas slowly right now, just takes time to get back to how it was.

    Prices falling down, sales vanishing, unemployment up, loan availability vanished.

    Absolutely perfect, a great improvement.

    Soon, prices will be back how they were ten years ago.

  3. Check out the chart on this site for the number of IT jobs being advertised:


    We've now officially taken out the 2003 post Y2K, post dot com crash lows. What's interesting is that the current drop shows no signs of slowing, if anything it's accelerating. This fits with my anecdotal evidence of getting very few calls about jobs, and the number of geeks I know who are "resting".

    This is bad - IT is (was?) one of our most profitable industries :( .

    It is a cost to UK companies, not a profit centre. The biggest Uk software house is Autonomy; could you name another?

  4. British Most Prolific Spanish Property Buyers

    May 5th, 2009

    Mark Stucklin

    It’s no secret that the British are important players in Spain’s property market, but it may come as a shock to see quite how important. Having done some digging with new figures, it turns out that the British completely dominate the expat market for homes in Spain, much more so that many ‘experts’ thought. That has big implications for the market, now that the weak pound and other factors have hit British demand hard.

    People in the business always knew that British demand led the expat market, but thanks to a lack of reliable figures, nobody knew exactly by how much. In one of the most comprehensive studies of the expat property market in Spain, British demand was estimated at 34% of the expat market in 2001, falling to around 30% in 2008, on a par with the Germans.

    But now, at last, we do have some reliable figures for sales by nationality. Spain’s property register has finally started publishing figures that breakdown property transactions by nationality, and as the following table shows, the British are far and away the biggest buyers.

    The British were 58% of the European expat market in 2008, with 11,485 new title deeds registered, down from 63% in 2006. The next biggest group – the Germans – were just 10% of British demand in 2008, with a paltry 1,534 properties bought.


    So, basically there won't be a recovery in the Spanish market until the UK market recovers (and people rebuild equity in their first homes). This will be many years from now.

  5. The owners direct sales prices are cheaper than agents prices for what I've seen.

    The reasons I could think of; desperate to get a sale and exchange rate changes mean Euro price is irrelevant; no agency fee's.

    Spanish agents have too much vested interest (or pressure) in keeping prices high, whereas some Uk owners want to get out for whatever reason.

    As for owners over valuing their property? well its as easy to spot as agency's doing the same - the price per sq meter in sites such as Piso.com which show the price trend for the area in Euro/M

  6. Now you may or may not be buying at the bottom of the cycle, no one ever knows when the bottom is reached until afterwards!

    Actually the peak of the boom is a sharp spike, but the bottom of a crash is a long, flat, wallowing mush.

    There will be years of stagnation in the housing market around the world. It is NO WHERE NEAR the bottom of the market and it cannot pick-up quickly - there will be far too many people in debt and banks will be short of money to lend for years.

    Spain has lost its domestic customers to unemployment and recession as well as the foreign buyers will will dump/cancel the second home. Exchange rates have wiped out UK buyers for a cuple of years. Spain will have a depressed housing market for years.

  7. So is this just a case of the market trying to clear out all of those with expectations of HPI until the last of the bulls is slaughtered,

    Managed or not, this is exactly what will happen. There will be noise along the way ("The Crash Has Slowed" as you put it) but the fundamentals will continue to it hits bottom and stays tehre for several years. 13 years was the time it took for property prices to break even from the 1973 crash.

  8. Shares have been in a bear market for around 13 years due to malinvestment ie property.I think we will see a 10-15 year bull market going forward lead by Asia.

    Falls ahead maybe but i think equities will be the best performing asset class over the next 10 years.

    Houses the worst.

    Shares have been a crap investment over the last 10 years, I don't see that changing.

  9. i bought in march too. still in, will take some profits soon

    the basic issue is this. everyone was way too bearish, thinking we were in for a repeat of the 1930s. but back then we had no welfare state to support families, no bank bailouts, taxes were hiked to balance the budget and interest rates kept high to keep the US on the gold standard

    this time we've seen record policy easing. and it is working in emerging economies (ex eastern europe). car sales are back at record highs in brazil china and india after falling 2nd half last year - partly due to lehman credit crisis but also due to their own central banks raising rates to combat inflation - remember oil was $150, inflation in double digits and shortages of food was leading to riots!

    so the world economy isn't as bad as the uber bears believe.

    we're now in a govt debt bubble. but as i found out the hard way on housing markets, debt bubbles can last for longer than you think!

    still see subtrend growth next year but over the summer, growth will be better than most expect as industrial production starts to recover. companies had to cut production by more than sales in 1q as inventories had built up. but they can now push production back to an albeit lower level of sales than last year

    Yes, but how does the lack of financing available for the hundreds of companies that need it this year and next come into it?

    My understanding is something like $750billion has to be raise by companies around the world and none of it is available or can be generated.

    As a consequence, unless a company is AAA it won't be able to re-finance and will go bust.

    The collapse of so many companies, together with the 20% of the world's trade that has vanished for every will destroy any prospect of a return to the la-la land of valuations or profits of yesteryear

  10. When everyone runs away and talks about the end of the world, it usually turns out to be the right time to buy.

    Get a grand or two into a few banks and recovery stock (ITV, Workspace, Ramco etc) and hold for a few years.

    Savings rates being what they are, IMO it's got to be worth a small amount of risk for a decent reward.

    (Barclays has been amazing. Under 50p a share 4 weeks ago - today £2.48 a share!! :o

    Wait until they start having to announce more diluting share sales due to loses. The basically failed the stress test and there is more bad news to come.

    Irrational Exuberance indeed.

  11. Ask 10 different chartists and they will give you 10 different answers.

    However it's generally accepted that the market has stop falling to new lows, and then start to put in a series of higher highs. At the moment we have a low, and this rally is still below January's, so it looks like we could be putting in a lower high... still firmly in bear market territory.

    I see the last major high as ~4630 in early Jan 09, so this current rally will need to break that to confirm the bear market is over.


    What a load of utter tripe.

  12. A lack of healthcare makes it a non-starter as a retirement destination. Spain is bad enough and many people have to return to the UK because of their health. It doesn't sound like a good idea if you have kids either - unless you don't care about their health.

    More negatives, Cape Verde is a dodo.

    Cheap it isn't....

    Villa in Sal, Cape Verde Ref: VILA VERDE 3 and 4 Bed Villas. CVP SAL 011

    Vila Verde Spacious 3 & 4 bed villas, large roof terraces & private pool.

    Price: € 297,000

    No. of beds: 4

    Pool: Private

    Garden: Private

    Distance from the Sea: Walking

    Distance from the Airport: 15 mins

    Villa in Sal, Cape Verde Ref: TORTUGA BEACH VILLA 2 CVP SAL 025


    Price: € 630,000

    No. of beds: 4

    Pool: Private

    Garden: Private

    Distance from the Sea: Walking

    Distance from a Golf Course: 15 mins

    Distance from the Airport: 15 mins

  13. Good from Tusk. But not sure that Poland will be immune, its just that they are 2 years behind the curve.

    The Polish cancer is borrowing in chf, and 100-125% mortgages.

    And a tiny number of houses built and sold. There is a chronic shortage of good housing in Poland, as much as I would like a massive economic crash, it doesn't seem to be happening.

  14. Things are actually getting much worse and credit is non-existent, not only to house hunters, but to all facets of business. Most banks are offering zero level of refinancing to existing businesses. Many of the companies, which fund managers have been eager to support in the stock market over the past month, will not survive the crisis, including many of the banking institutions that no longer operate as 'real' banks.

    I have zero debt. However, my bank have pre-approved me for 25K at 8.2% over 5 years, offering me a overdraft up to £4k if I want it. Another lender is offering me 10K if I continue paying for a loan thats just finished. And my credit card company have hiked my available balance to £10k.

    So there is credit available to people with 999 credit scores.

  15. If you are a consultant earning over a certain amount you have to charge VAT.

    This is money that the market may have been able to have borne as a fee.

    I understand why he would include it.

    Yeah, but its not his money is it? You charge a fee and add VAT on top (subtracting any business purchases) - so its basically a short term loan from the Government.

  16. I'd refute the statement that "HMG would refund any sterling balance held in a UK bank". If one of the biggies were to go then I don't think they (read we) could afford to. There simply isn't the money in the pot to do so. If one of the big banks goes under, it'll take our economy with it, in which case I'll wish I'd put my money into the currency of a prudent, hard-working, slow-burn economy.

    Several of the UK Banks have effectively gone under, the UK has taken on the liabilities. This prevented HMG having to fork out cash to depositors but its protected they regardless of the liabilities.

  17. My current thinking is Icelandic Krona (as they've already taken a big hit),

    No, no, no,


    The Icelandic Krona no longer exists outside Iceland, inside its fixed by currency laws by the Icelandic Governments. At some point in the future they will run out of foreign exchange an have to let it float. They seem to have given up support so its falling 1% per day, but there are tens of billions in Glaicer bonds tha foreign holders will dump the moment they are allowed to cash out. Whn tha happens the Krona will crash.

  18. It may interest some of you to know that Iceland produces most of its power from green sources and that they have huge geothermal potential. Of course a stupid person would say 'what use is that' if you're not able to use the power to make something, or if you did make something you would have to ship it across the Atlantic. A smart person on the other hand would realize Iceland could use their excess power to feed vast Network Server Farms and that optical cables could be used to connect iceland to the EU and USA....... this is not fantasy EBay and Google are on the verge of investing billions into green server farms on Iceland...... worthless?

    Geothermal power is not unlimited, there is only so much heat that can be extracted and the customers don't get it cheap, electricity is expensive in Iceland.

    The server farm idea isn't going to happen soon.

    Great article on Iceland. Bunch of inbred, stupid suckers apparently...


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