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Peter Hun

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Posts posted by Peter Hun

  1. 17 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    The achievable margin will depend on the Chinese competition, if Tesla's margins are being squeezed there isn't much hope for the Western manufacturers.  

    Tesla sells every car it can make, didn't I explain before that the Chinese output is being shared across the world and the sales figures in each market just reflect the quotas allocated to each market. 

    As above, Europe is buying every Tesla they can get and at premium prices. I wonder what will happen when Berlin and Texas start production. 

    To try and get back the money you lost on your October short? 

    All car manufacturers sell every car they make, Tesla problem is that othet manufacturersare now starting to maker more cars and growing faster. In China BYD grew at 236%, Tesla at 13%.

    Your magically thinking should be applied to Teslas competition. BYD from nothing to 8x Tesla in China, VW to x2  in two years. Tesla have a problem, they sell high price high margin product and are being under cut.

    Yes i hold short shares in Tesla had them a while, lost 50% so averaged down. I don't lose until i crystallise my loses.

  2. No doubt you think Tesla will be able to sell their $25k car for a 50% premium to maintain that premium. Cos people will buy Tesla no matter what.

    China sales are disappointing, last month Tesla had 4% market share

    .BYD sold 5 times Tesla, 80k in October.

    In Europe VW has twice Tesla market share. Usual end of quarter shipment may make a slight change to that.

    I topped up my tesla short shares. 

  3. 18 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    I don't think Musk (other Musk?) ever put a number on it. The 10hr v 30hr figure came from industry commentators and was repeated by VW's CEO Herbert Diess who also said "Tesla is setting new standards for productivity and scale in Grunheide,"

    The idea that established ICE makers would have some inbuilt advantage in producing EV's at scale has now been thoroughly debunked.  First EVs are not ICE's with an electric motor they are computers on wheels and secondly Tesla is reinventing the production process rather than trying to catch up with the likes of VW and Toyota.  


    EV's are not computers with wheels, thats Tesla bullsheet.

    If Tesla are so good at making cheap cars how come they make some of the most expensive?


  4. 2 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

    Tesla Model 3 becomes best-selling vehicle (not just electric) in Europe


     Tesla’s Market Cap (Gigantic) v. Next 10 Automakers v. Tesla’s

    Global Market Share (Minuscule) by Wolf Richter • Oct 26, 2021


    Thats a point blank, they deliver 3 months cars in one month to game the sales  chsrts just as they game the EPA range.

  5. 10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    Not sure why you think the figures are fake. Every investor who follows Tesla will be fully aware that Tesla builds cars for specific markets in batches, leading to press reports of record sales one month and a sales collapse the next month.   

    The important thing is that Tesla can sell every car it builds at its list price and is currently making a 30% margin on sales.  VW's CEO has admitted that VW claims it would overtake Tesla's EV sales in 2022 haven't a hope of coming true and that it may never do unless it drastically restructures the company to catch up with the productivity of Tesla's latest production lines, which can build a model Y with 10hrs labour v over 30 to build an id4 

    As I typed this the share price has shot past $1,000, up 12% on the day, i.e. more than the combined value of Ford and GM.   

    NB After around 6 months with an id3 my wife has decided to swop it for a Tesla model Y, the car was ok but charging is just too much hassle.    

    Yes they are fake. Tesla sold 30k cars in the quarter, VW sold 60% more. Tesla incresed sales by over 40% from last year, VW by over 50%. So Tesla is losing market share to VW who will be releasing even more models. Where is the news headlines about Tesla's fall in car sales in 2020 against VW 100% rise in sales for that year?

    Tesla is selling 10k cars per month, so announcing that 24k were sold in September is very deceptive without mention the previous two months were 3k and the following two months will be 3k.

    >>As I typed this the share price has shot past $1,000, up 12% on the day, i.e. more than the combined value of Ford and GM. 

    Thats 30 times the total value of the Hertz deal. I look forward Tesla selling 200million, $75k starting price cars a year into the 100 million annual car market. Not likely as they don't have the manufacturering plans in place to do so. Cancelled China expansion remember.

    >>After around 6 months with an id3 my wife has decided to swop it for a Tesla model Y, the car was ok but charging is just too much hassle

    So she found out she could afford to spend 60k on a car not 30k after all?

    Funny you and Marky chuck 60k on Teslas, the only common trait is you ankle deep in Tesla shares.

  6. 1 hour ago, Flat Bear said:
    So 4 hours on.
    World Population:
    • has reached 7 billion on October 31, 2011.
    • is projected to reach 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion in 2037, and 10 billion people in the year 2055.
    • has doubled in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion).
    • is currently (2020) growing at a rate of around 1.05 % per year, adding 81 million people per year to the total.
    • growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at 2.09%.
    • growth rate is currently declining and is projected to continue to decline in the coming years (reaching below 0.50% by 2050, and 0.03% in 2100) .
    • a tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history up to the year 1800 for world population to reach 1 billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), the fifth billion in 13 years (1987), the sixth billion in 12 years (1999) and the seventh billion in 12 years (2011). During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.

    Thats academic, we are talking about the UK,  dying quicker than being born and immigration entire under the governments control.


  7. 1 hour ago, markyh said:

    Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear Pete, you had best just admit defeat with todays news.  Say one of the biggest car rental companies in the world wants to suddenly make 20% of their global fleet EV's in the next 14 months, where do the place the order?  VW ? Audi ? Hyundai or KIA, maybe Nissan? 

    Nope.  Tesla. 100k News Tesla's on the car rental market USA and Europe in the next 14 months. That's an extra 7000+ tesla sales month, and Hertz had to pay "retail" , just like me. lol.  But lets be honest, no legacy automaker has the production capacity to deliver, no matter how cheap they throw their BEV's at Hertz. 

    Hertz orders 100,000 Teslas, the single-largest EV purchase ever, with Tom Brady campaign (electrek.co)

    Share price at new ATH, really got to hurt anyone dumb enough to take a Tesla short position in the last 12 months, 🙄 as five figure  shareholder now approaching $5000 a share pre split, i'm delighted.  

    Wolfberg is making 1200 ID3 per day. Thats just one variant of one model. Seats version my out sell it and then there is Skoda. 

  8. On 24/10/2021 at 10:33, markyh said:

    I would hope so, Tesla has zero production in Europe, yet, like i said, and only total GLOBAL sales really matter. Berlin Gigafactory goes live in 2022, 2021 was VW's last chance to become Global BEV maker, in 2022 the game is lost, forever. 

    All UK 3 and the new RHD Y come from China now. Tesla has up to an 8 month backlog of orders in the USA now as Fremont cant keep up with USA demand alone. Could easily see Berlin exporting to USA in 2023. 

    Tesla have spare capacity in China to ship to Europe. Im not sure what their real sales figures were, we will find out year end. In the only market where VW were competing they were outsell tesla 2:1 ytd.

  9. 14 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

    Yes I agree with this. There is a lot of upward pressure on prices.

    The population of homeowners will increase as the population increases and the number of housing units increase.

    The number of people who do not own their own home will increase by even more as the population increases as the number of new homes does not keep up with need.

    It is predicted the population of the UK will increase significantly from all sources. The increase is over 0.5% per annum and the true increase is and will be closer to 1% than 0.5% over the next 20 years. That is an increase of over 300,000 people every year the size of an average UK city.

    There is nowhere near enough people "dying off". The only way you could see this is by a lethal plague pandemic with a very high kill rate over a prolonged period. The birth rate of the indigenous population may have gone down, luckily, but this has not had enough effect on the overall increases. The net figure is and will be up, and significantly.

    The uk birthrate had collapsed and deaths will increase so where will this population increase come from?

  10. 12 hours ago, fuzzy_bear said:


    Why 6%?

    Why do people have this idea of "normal" interest rates?

    Because the 1% level was called an emergency rate due to the 2008 crash and it wasn't considered to be a long term rate.

    Historical rares are about 4.5% over the past couple of hundred years. The main purpose is to control inflation.

    Low interest rates cause all sorts of problems but inflation makes workers poorer so they go on strike to get higher pay. Well they used to before unions were eradicated.

    The result in America is 20 years of stagnation in income for average households and social unrest. In the uk weve had Brexit as a symtom of unhappiness with the status quo of stagnation in income and low intetest drive  rocketing housr prices.

  11. 19 hours ago, markyh said:

    How's VW doing overtaking Tesla in BEV sales this year? I suspect my Q3 Tesla are even further ahead. I did my bit , ordered 2 Tesla's (3 & Y LR) totalling about £110k. Didn't even test drive a single VW group car. I will benchmark a Porsche Taycan vs Tesla Roadster when it available in the UK though. 

    EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database


    In Europe VW is destroying Tesla. We will have to wait until a full year is in to be sure because of the profusion of fake sales figures from Tesla fanboys.

    They love to quote single month numbers when Tesla sell literally nothing for two months and then ship everything in quarter end.

    Further confusion China where production figures are quoted without making clear that these care are then sold and shipped to europe.

  12. 17 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

    There is a great need for housing throughout England in particular. It must be remembered this need is likely to grow over the coming years as the population continues to grow quickly.

    The only way I can see that house prices will fall nominally is if they become less affordable to the point it is out of reach of the next purchaser.

    The base rate doesn’t correlate exactly with what an available mortgage rate you could get could be. At this time there is still excess money in the banking system trying to find very safe investment even at very low returns, so it also depends as to how much extra money is available and at what cost.

    This is likely to be a protracted event and if as I believe we start to see higher and higher inflation over the coming years interest rates will slowly start to rise. It is possible in a very high inflation environment real house prices fall considerably but nominal prices maybe fall slightly or rise slightly or even stay the same which is a real possibility.

    So as the base rate slowly starts to rise, and liquidity slowly starts to dry up mortgage rates offered will begin to get more expensive.

    House prices are fairly stable generally and tend not to change dramatically so it could take longer than anyone thinks for prices to fall and if this scenario came about a long denial stage would take place. The auction house with destressed sales will start any possibly larger correction.

    I think there is much more inflation already in the system than the BOE think (or admit to). It is a well-known fact on this forum the FED and the BOE will hold the base rate as low as possible for as long as possible. I think that it is possible that the base rate in the UK will still be under 1.5% going into 2023 by this time inflation will have started to have devalued the debt to some extent. I cannot see how they can hold at these low rates going beyond the beginning of 2023 or how any further stimulus is possible so with inflation above 10% which I believe will be the case, that is when we are likely to see some sort of correction in many asset classes, what form it will take exactly is very difficult to predict.

    Thr population of  homeowners is going to fall by 250k per year as the baby boomers die and sell up. The birth rate is at its lowest every and below sustainment level, the governmentnow has comple controlof immigration so that sorce of growth should shrink.

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