paddy in casablanca

hey biglog, i've read many of your posts... great minds, eh? would be happy to get in touch, but i can't get the PM thingie to work here. My email address is the french for messageinabottle in one word (message dans une bouteille) at gmail dot com.

On the Fadesa meltdown. Actually, the official story here in Morocco has been that that the Moroccan subsidiary bought out Fadesa last year and owns all the development land. The Moroccan company has confirmed that it will go ahead with all developments. Fadesa's (very plush) head office here in Casablanca on Bd Moulay Youssef is still open for business. As I mentioned in a previous post, it won't be until next year that we see what's to come, once the current slowdown in property sales feeds through into the stock market valuations of Moroccan developers.

Re: Tourism figures in Morocco. Official figures from the Tourism Ministry point to a decline in hotel occupancy rates. Basically, less French tourists have arrived this year and last since prices for hols in Morocco are more expensive than Tunisia or Turkey. I don't have figures to hand, but if you speak French you can consult the blog www.casawaves.com which gives pretty regular reporting on the Moroccan property market. It also appears that there are also fewer moroccan expats (MRE) returning on vacation or those who are coming have chosen to rent furnished apartments rather than staying in hotels. The Tourism Ministry also claim that hotel accommodation figures are down because more people are staying in undeclared Riad accommodation. Other anecdotal evidence of a property slump comes from newspaper reports that Notaries and Estate Agents here are experiencing a decline in sales. Much of the difficulties come from a mismatch in supply and demand with far too much property on the market that is beyond the purchasing power of ordinary Moroccans. As any observer of property markets knows, once people can no longer get their foot on the first rung of the ladder you can be sure that things are about to get shaky and may even topple over. Many people are saying that the critical indicator to follow will be how well valuations for the major Moroccan property developers' stock market valuations hold up on the Casablanca bourse over coming months as the slide in sales begins to set in. Many developers have artificially inflated the values of land banks on their balance sheets and when it comes time to write down the value of these assets we can expect a few suprises. On the other hand, Morocco remains a major exporter of illegal drugs and much of the money earned illegally is reinvested in Morocco since post-2001 it's become increasingly difficult to reinvest cash in Europe. I'm based in Morocco myself (living in Casablanca for the last year) after having spent numerous years in France. I'm keen to invest myself in this country (hopefully once things start to settle down next year) and am very impressed by much of what I've read in this thread and hope to make my own little contribution to this community in coming weeks and months. Gluck to all!