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House Price Crash Forum

dr ray

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Everything posted by dr ray

  1. The world will always need energy, transport and finance. I'm selling my gold and buying Railtrack, British Energy, British Leyland and Northern Rock. Can't go wrong with shares.
  2. Harmless enough piece of lightweight writing on a quiet news day. Many years ago I got a flyer through the post (probably from the Moneyweek group of publications) predicting global water shortages would cause massive migration to the major cities in Europe and the middle classes would leave the cities to become cesspits of crime and depravity. So far so good. The flyer predicted that the best place to live in the UK would be.......... Hay-on-Wye. This struck me as unusually precise. Hay-on Wye is nice enough although an expensive place to live for transport. I don't live far from Hay-on-Wye and I still wonder whether the flyer was tailored to each area it was delivered to.
  3. These endless arguments about POG stem from people perceiving gold in different contexts. Some see it as currency and it does have this role to some degree. However the counter-argument is that you can't spend it without converting it to fiat but if you have ever tried to spend a Channel Islands £1 in Tesco you will see that this applies to other currencies too. Secondly, some see it as a commodity. As such it should decline in value during a depression which it hasn't done but it has also not risen as much as it should have in its other roles so perhaps it is behaving as a commodity but the price effect is counteracted by its other roles. Thirdly it behaves as insurance against bad government and financial collapse. Insurance costs most when the risk is highest and we are certainly seeing high risk at present and this is priced accordingly. When the risk passes the risk premium should drop. So you just need to be aware there are different reasons for owning gold and the effect on price can be totally different in its different roles. Anyone buying physical gold as an investment is taking great risks as RB states but buying physical oil is not great if you need to convert it to cash or flee the country either and buying stocks in say BP introduces third party risks as the owners of Enron found out. A windfall tax on BP from this government would not be a surprise.
  4. Sure, apparently there is a Windows program where you click on a dropdown list and set how much gold you want to produce and, hey presto, 15 minutes later the new supply hits the markets. Just as easy as printing money. Are you suggesting that people aren't bothered about digging it up at the moment. The fact is that digging up gold is a risky, dangerous, expensive, polluting and increasingly difficult process and the amount of gold being dug up is not keeping pace with the rise in population let alone the rise of the middle classes in Asia and China.
  5. Sounds good. Anyone thinking of doing this please PM me for my address to put on the envelope. Oh and read up about the scams
  6. It can't be more than 2 years ago it was 36p/l near me. Thats a bigger price rise than petrol.
  7. Dream on. You're probably too young to remember when you had to save for the best part of a year to buy a "quality" British TV or radiogram. Catch 22. If British made goods are ever to become affordable we would have to have wages as low as the Chinese and then we wouldn't be able to afford the goods we produce.
  8. Close your eyes, stick your fingers in your ears and repeat: " There is no inflation. We must prevent deflation" and it won't seem so bad.
  9. So, apart from one, you are all in gainful employment. You've Nulabour to thank for that. They look after hardworking families. I'm joking Ken. As I mentioned elsewhere I am angry that someone as bright and hardworking as you seem to be can't do better for themselves in this country.
  10. The difference would be that it would not be £1 more but £100 more and you wouldn't care because someone else was paying so you would order one for later too.
  11. I thought Labour were anti private health care. Well they were until ex health minister Alan Milburn got a job with a private healthcare provider. Maybe they are trying to line up lucretive jobs for themselves advising the private healthcare industry how best to rip off the taxpayer.
  12. Not so far off the truth. There is no difference in economic stimulus based on government spending and one based on shoplifting. The stuff stolen off the shopkeepers has to be restocked which feeds through to manufacturing and keeps people in work. Without shoplifting we would probably have more than 3 million unemployed by now. We should reward the most successful shoplifters with annual bonuses in the same way as bankers are.
  13. They may well do but successful parasites dont kill their host. The successful parastite will take the maximum amount it can but has an interest in keeping the host alive because if the host dies the parasite does too unless it can jump to a new host (this might explain why Blair and Brown are so keen to get on the world stage). Of course some parasites get it wrong and the short term gain from sucking everything out of the host is followed by the death of the host and parasite. Nulabour may be remembered as the Black Death of the UK economy, wiping out both the middle classes and themselves in the process.
  14. Totally agree. I have lived in my house for 15 years and not made any profit at all. In fact it has cost money to maintain and it provides no more utility than it did 15 years ago. It was paid for out of taxed income and when I die my estate will be taxed at 40% or more and we are seriously arguing that I should also be taxed on the change in nominal value of the house caused by politicians failure to maintain the value of our currency.
  15. No its from the Party that increased CGT from 0 to 18% for long term holders of businesses and other assets which might only have nominally increased in value over many years and reduced it from 40% to 18% for short term speculators
  16. Scepticus, I usually take the trouble to understand your posts even though I generally disagree with them but you have really destroyed your credibility now. This is the Statist or communist arguement that you should be happy to work for the public good and accumulating personal wealth is both unnecessary and antisocial (applied only to the proles). Just look at why people are willing to work. At one extreme they work because they would be beaten or shot if they didn't. This has been tried in many societies over the years and you seem to have some sympathy with this model. At the next level, you work because if you don't you will starve and live in a cardboad box. This is the capitalist equivalent of communism or slavery. Finally you might work because, not only do you need to eat but because you want a better future for yourself and your children. This involves working more than you need for your immediate needs and saving. For most people in the developed world this is what drives them to work beyond subsistance level and you seem to think this is evil and should be prevented. We should be clear here. If someone works and pays income taxes and still manages to save in real terms after allowing for inflation, taking their savings is simply theft and cannot be justified by any reasonably thinking person.
  17. You're a clever guy Ken. It saddens me that someone like you can't find a well paid job doing what you're trained for. Isn't there some way you could be employed as HPC tax adviser? In the US guys like you take over empty shops at this time of the year and run classes on filling in tax returns and claiming deductions. I've not seen the equivalent in the UK - presumably because you would be classified as their tax advisor and subject to all sorts of legislation in the UK.
  18. Why would the Welsh burn their own businesses unless it was an insurance fraud. Almost all the holiday homes I have stayed in in Wales have been owned by Welsh people. Nowhere does it say that these were owned by outsiders. Still, it seems a drastic but effective way to deal with the recent tax increase on holiday lets
  19. I think they changed the T&Cs on the website. I distinctly remember seeing that withdrawals were allowed and even posted a comment on Moneyweek saying so. Perhaps they had a lot of enquiries and withdrew the option. Still, 90 days loss of interest on a year bond would be expensive and its still a good deal.
  20. Try the Poppy Bond from Coventry BS. A HPCer put me on to these last year. They are paying 4.3% until dec 2010 and you can take your money out (with loss of 90 days interest )which makes it the best I've found recently. They make a donation to the Poppy Appeal too.
  21. I had some bank shares in Lloyds but the government stole them. I also had a pension with Equitable Life but the government stole it. I had shares in Railtrack and Nuclear Energy which should have benefited from rising fuel prices but the government stole them. Is a picture emerging? Don't trust your future to anything the government can steal.
  22. I got mine too. If that is what he is focused on he has just about failed on all counts. Deluded or what? He wasn't and will never be democratically elected so he doesn't give a 5hit what the electorate want.
  23. There must be local reasons why it hasn't gone up so much but look at it from another point of view and it is still shocking that 150K today is only worth what 15K was 30 years ago. The value of £1 then is only 10p now or a 90% loss of value in 30 years. If it carries on like this someone leaving a million in cash for their newborn child would not leave them enough to buy a flat when they left university.
  24. Hospital consultants at our trust can claim £70 per night if staying in London (or £25 if staying with friends or relatives) If its enough for us it should be enough for MPs. Otherwisw we are going to be ripped off by MPs claiming inflated rental costs.
  25. I think I misunderstood your comment and we are both arguing the same thing. Some people have argued that house prices can't possibly increase 10% yoy for ever because the average price would be £10,000,000 or something after 20 years but I was pointing out that this is indeed what has occurred previously and there is no reason why a house couldn't be worth £10,000,000. As you say, the house won't be more valueable, just £1 will be worth less same applies to gold.
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