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House Price Crash Forum


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About Macluis

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  1. It was... just take all the arguments and take the opposite view...as i was a bit fed up by the naive view that housing price were only heading one direction which was up... I think the English expat was one argument used by local sellers to push price higher...today the myth has vanished and with it the global housing boom. One last remark: if there is two place to invest is definitely is the UK and US from a eurpean point of view as you will have to taken into account falling price (20%?) plus currency devaluation (30%?), I think those market have never been so cheap. The point i'm making is that, i do not see why people would invest, for property related investment, anywhere than those country. If i'm right you are going to see a flood of expat returning to the UK this year and next, pushing, to some extent, european price lower like in Spain, Morocco and France etc...
  2. Spring 2018 ? The severity of this crisis and the impact on the real economy will be felt for a very very long time... For housing I can easely see a Japanese type scenario, where house price goes down for more than a decade.... So why buying when renting gives you all the flexibility? Buying is not any more a good investment
  3. It's damn expensive...even the local woudn't want to buy such small flat. It's a student market...but you know student, don't have the money and bank don't lend any more to such risky group. Who is left? the lost english...i guess not anymore..with all the press that has been done through newspaper and media, everybody knows that a housing correction has started in France and elsewhere (not to say worldwide)..it will take 10 years -2 decade to come back to a normal level - forgetting the financial crisis- Now people (the expat) start to understand that "stone" is not the main value- on the way they forgot the family values. So instead of expatraiting themselves and cutting all link with their children , gran children ...they will start going back locally and enjoy the warmth of the family reunion. Now , the local - be it French , English - understand that a correction of the real estate is ongoing - somthing that could be of the scale of 1929. I don't even talk about 1990 - as we had a mild recession and the banking system was functionning well in France and UK. Indeed price will fall to 40% or more...more meaing that it will not have any more the value (quantitative and qualitative) it use to have after year 2000. It will not be any more associated with wealth but instead with burden... at least we are in this part of the cycle.
  4. You got to come back to reality. Mervin king had warned that the housing bubble in the UK will deflate, and fast. People will have to readjust their behaviour with regard to that asset. The Financial system had been readjusting with real estate speculator type institution, wiped out : Bradford and Bingley, HBOS , Nothern Rock (already processed.) etc... Price in Eastern Europe are going to fall sharply amid a deteriorating economy, a fluctuating exchange rate and higher inflation. The smart UK real estate investor were the one who left the market about 2 years ago. Now the door is getting smaller if not closing. Some will lose fortunes, some will experience a lost decade... Time to come to reality before reality comes on time to byte you and hard... Overwise, I'm bullish for the local people, the hard worker locals that ultimately will benefit in this turmoil...
  5. to that i will add, not only financial institution have to go through deleveraging but so will the highly undebted citizen. This will take years if not decade. A japanese type scenario, the US is building it as it doesn't allow or it has no choice but nationalizing the big one - lehman was choosen for the example - AIG, Fannie Mae and freddy Mac, were to big too fail, it would have witnessed instant deleveraging raging... but they choose to take control and to allow an orderly readjustement so instead of 1 year of mayhem, you will get many year of sub growth, sub lending .... Buy to Let is gone... you can buy property, fall in love with stone but as a lover you will need to get patient and stay in relationship for a decade or two before filling for divorce and getting some profit - if profit there is.
  6. "Bradford and Bingley" & HBOS are all but collpasing and with it they are just announcing the end of the Buy to let market. The english world wide real estate speculator has disappeared today as the dinausors during the ice age, this time it is dur the freezing of the credit market ...
  7. To DubaiExpat: What is the main reason of the builder correction? I understand that in the U.K , U.S., the builders have corrected by more than 60% in a matter of a year due to a sharp fall in starts and housing price. In Dubai, everybody knows that it was a bubble in the making. But has housing starts began to slow or price started to retreat? I suppose as long as oil price are elevated, money can still flow there? unless oil price continue its downward correction thus drying up liquidity in a market that rely on it...
  8. When people are franck and give an honest answer, you call that insult? I'm just comdemning the obvious, which is the main topic of this thread: Dubai is a highly speculative market. Maybe you should come to this forum to get realistic answer and quite often judicious one.
  9. Bullish in the sense that excess are going to be removed. Bullish with the fact that at some point the market will be healthier. Bullish with the fact that reckless investors will be punished hard for bringing unbalance in most markets. Bullish with the fact that system finally clean itself up after few years of unhealthy Euphoria. Regarding the real estate market in the next five to two decades, indeed I'm bearish To me, it's clear that a major delevering by banks and households is currently happening. This after about 20 years of credit expansion. During those 20 years, stocks, bonds, and real estate went in only one direction : up. During the next 20 years, stocks, bonds, and real estate will go in only one direction : down. Bear in mind that the stock market is much liquid than the real estate market, so it will go side way the long term channel will be down. It will be a trader market as it has been in the past year or so. Most experts, I mean the real one, are all warning about this possible outcome. So house price will go down for a very long period, and then stabilize. Bank will have to replenish their capital base or disappear. There will be far less bank in 10 years than todays. Lot of banks around the world will go belly up. Liquidity will dry up whatever the Central bank do. Less mortgage, less buyers. Cash will be king. The buy to let market is dead. This business model was working when you have a ever rising asset. Bradford and Bingley is the symptom of worse to come.
  10. People got to be informed, price are going to go down in ALL real estate world wide, as a delevering is ongoing. The credit crisis is much more serious than people thought at first and the consequence as serious as at least 1990. My guess- it will be worse. People on the ground, the one some try to fool, just don't get informed correctly...
  11. Why don't you just go and live in the western world instead ? What kind of job do you do there? speculating real estate or advising expat fools to buy there? I meant that if you move in Dubai because you have the skill the country need, it's all great and fine and you will be rewarded accordingly. If you go there because you kindda like the culture and the people living there - not looking to hang up only with expats - then I admire you. But if you go there because "a mate" tod you that big bucks could be made overnight, then I will question your motive.
  12. Nothing to do with Light & Magics, but more to do with hard facts, coming from the biggest brains in the investment and monetary policy in the world. I'm just bullish in the same sense as I was during the Nasdaq peak of 2000, bullish because I sold all my stocks while others were still buying. So indeed when all asset price had rallied for over a period a two decades (ignoring the 1990 correction in real estate and 2001 correction in stocks, which were bumps in a strong two decades bull market), how can one is not bullish. Price have corrected but are still far, very far from their natural equilibrium. I will turn bearish when asset price have return back to their 1990 peak...I suppose i will update then my profile in 2011 or 2015...just be patient.
  13. if you don't know Pimco's Bill Gross, then it's about time...this guy's financial views and media intervention value its weight in gold. It never talk for deceiving. I think in todays world, financial and economies are going to clean themselves up. No more amator speculator that are distorting the fundamentals and sole base is to make money out of money without considering the benefit they bring to the society or economy. I think the speculators, that have had a living out of real estate by just buying and selling, flipping and renting, will have a very hard time. The delevering that will happen will not be a 1 year or 2 event, but one or two decade process. I suppose most of the speculators would have retired by then and hopefully still have enought cash...to pay their rent. In the past decade or so there were not talented or genius, expat real estate investor but just lucky one that enjoyed the world ammasing an enormous, unsustainable amount of debt that is know imploding in all directions...
  14. Sorry to self reply, but it's astonishing but it seems that there is a coordinated move from many players to communicate clearly the extent of the drama that seem to be unfolding .... taken from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
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