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topcarrera

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About topcarrera

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  1. Given that the only thing this country will be able to manufacture very soon is government BS then as the economy starts to disintegrate, hyper-inflation kicks in and Sterling crashes then your notional £200K figure seems quite conservative to me. £200K for a modest box of a house, £10 for a loaf of bread etc .........
  2. Unfortunately 90% of the "politcal classes" and 95% of the "sheeple" have still not woken up to the fact that an economy cannot be sustained through activity in the housing and high street retail markets. Quite simply unless we start to make and sell more products ourselves than we buy from overseas we are doomed. Forget the previous levels of revenue from "invisible exports", in future we will have to rely predominantly on tangible goods. The UK's unique "something for nothing" theory of national wealth creation has got to come to an end. We can choose to respond ourselves now or continue to deny our fragility and simply let global economic forces take their course. If we accept 10+ years of hard work and austerity we will survive. If we choose the retail therapy route to solve our problems then bankruptcy, poverty etc .. is a guaranteed outcome within a similar time frame. During the week I heard an interview with a Lib Dem peer who was asked to comment on the potential weakness of the government's £2K car scrappage scheme, i.e. whether it risks simply supporting foreign manufacturers with little real value to the real fortunes of the UK economy. His answer was frightening. He quite passionately countered the concern for the UK vehicle manufacturing industry argument with a claim that we should have greater concern for the car dealership/retail business since this employed more people! What on earth!!!!!!! Herein lies the problem, very very few of our leaders, financial/economic commentators have a grasp of the glaringly obvious. I think we are probably quite close to the bottom of this recession. Recovery on the other hand is another matter. Everyone talks of a recovery as a matter of fact not IF. There is a very real risk of a dangerous housing/retail lead pseudo recovery within the next 18 months. Inevitably this would be very short-lived but the after-effects of any such mini-boom could prove to be fatal. God help us!
  3. The DT has done sterling work to expose these abuses but unfortunately has, in my opinion, sunk to the ranks of just another tabloid rag in its completely unobjective reporting style of this issue. It would seem to me that mere mention of an MPs name in the DT in connection with this scandal has become automatic grounds for deselection. Claiming £000s for a mortgage that doesn't exist is one thing, claiming for a trouser-press is another. The DT's principal goal has been to arouse the worse instincts (greed!) within the ranks of the increasingly and dangerously influential poorly educated bourgeoisie. The hypocrisy displayed within the media's coverage of this issue says more about the problems with this country than the abuses themselves!
  4. Really? Do we have a right to expect businesses to make goods at a loss for us? Manufacturers are not in a position to continue losing billions in the hope that a significant recovery in demand is imminent. All manufacturers are looking at reducing the scale of their activities and ensuring that margin can be made on units sold - this can only lead to one thing higher unit prices (or commercial failure).
  5. "Are used car prices rising?" Yes! I picked up a mint 1 owner 30K miles 2 year old Saab estate from auction last August for £6.5K, lots of similar cars were going for the same sort of money. Same cars (i.e. coming up for 3 years old and 40K+ miles) still making over £6K. Residuals took a battering through late 2007 and first three quarters of 2008 but have subsequently firmed up and recovered by 10/15% on many mainstream models. Trend will continue as drop in new car sales will hit supplies in coming years. A heavily discounted new vehicle stands to loose far less over three years than in recent years. Sooner or later as stocks are cleared all manufacturers will be forced to move prices upwards particularly in the UK where the £ is so much weaker than it was a year or two ago.
  6. Incorrect - A fabulous opportunity for the monarch to overrule Parliament for the first time in over 200 years!
  7. No doubt the "e" details of everyone posting their support for this petition are being recorded by our Home Office as they battle to combat "threats to the state (State =NuLabor)". All contributors should be very wary of becoming the target of future surveillance orders, a visit from the NuLabor heavies (local plod) and threats of life imprisonment
  8. Lets see what the position is in three years time! Cavalier attitudes championed by the UK and the US (and foolishly copied to a lesser degree by other nations) have generated this mess. The world will move on and certainly make all efforts to ensure that recovery and future prosperity is not so heavily dependant on the US economic machine. With global demand falling most countries are suffering. Whatever happens we still need to ensure our trade balances and that we can export at least as much as we import. If/as/when a global recovery starts how can we benefit from that if we are not exporting? We need to make things. It really is that simple. The question that should concern people in the UK is not how long it will be before the global economy starts to recover (which it will, probably faster than we may think) but how on earth the UK will be part of it when it has nothing to sell?
  9. Very different, clearly evidenced by the emerging global vote of no confidence in the UK economy! I have worked in the engineering/manufacturing sector for just over 20 years. I have direct experience of working with European, US and Far Eastern subsidiary operations, suppliers and customers. Whilst the most senior UK engineering professionals and managers are as good as anywhere in the world the gap in the quality of the UK workforce at the middle and lower ranks is shocking. About 18 months ago a junior production manager who worked for me at the time was asked to spend two weeks supporting a large Chinese customer (manufacturing rare earth magnets) with the introduction of a new manufacturing technology that we were selling. What really struck him was the capability and general intelligence of the shop-floor based operatives - miles ahead of anything employable in the UK for less than £20K basic. You also notice this with young Eastern European workers in this country. Our education system is failing. Literacy and numeracy standards are in freefall. Its my experience that most recent school leavers and even graduates do not have even very basic arithmetic skills. In recent times the service industry sector has provided "easy" work for a largely unskilled workforce and "factory" employment has been viewed with contempt by many people. Our priorities need to change.
  10. Herein lies the misunderstanding of huge numbers of people in this country including this current government. This largely illusory form of wealth creation is at the very core of the mess our particular country is in. Importing manufactured goods, and selling at a profit into a home economy does absolutely nothing for wealth creation. If we can buy cheap goods from other economies and then export these with significant mark-up for very little additional input then clearly that will be of benefit to our economy. The reality is that whilst complex/technological/high value items featuring a significant element of offshore manufactured componentry in their construction may command a strong export based market the scenario outlined above really only fits consumer goods for the home market. Taking the hypothetical 50p Chinese handbag imported into the UK and sold on for £3.00 where is the gain? There isn't one, its a 50p loss to the UK! Preservation of reasonable standards of living in this country can only be assured if we make sharp, spectacular and sustained reversals in our trade balances, i.e. we need to export more! Forget any recovery in exports from financial services; its simply not going to happen. We have no choice but to manufacture and export goods at a massively higher level than we are doing so at the moment. Manufacturing and engineering in this country will not flourish and stand a chance of being competitive unless positive action is taken to incentivise people to work in this sector and train to aquire the appropriate skills. We need to stop wasting billions on mediocre volume tertiary education involving "wishy washy" subjects and fund the maintenance and fees for all youngsters wishing to study science and engineering beyond school. How about reversing the VAT cut and offering tax free earning for all people under 30 in the manufacturing/engineering sector. We have got to be radical! It really is desparate how a country that saw the birth of industry and relied upon it in large part to achieve greatness is now quite happy to rely on other countries to provide much of its technology. The country really would benefit from a much more "rounded" government comprising at least a few individuals who have some idea what manufacturing is, could you imagine Mandy having any clue what any of the items on the underside of a Jag bonnet were. I think we are doomed and frankly, as a country we deserve what is coming.
  11. Fascinating how the current "meltdown" predictions from many of the same analysts who only 18 months ago were predicting modest growth and that "fundamentals were strong" are now referred to with any sort credibility whatsoever The bottom (house prices) will arrive faster than quite a few on here think (through next year). Forget 50% drop from peak except in extreme cases/areas. I still think somewhere closer to half this total level of correction is more likely.
  12. Apologies if in my previous post I failed to take your concerns about grammar school education more seriously. I now see that your grammar school education really DID promote a rather elitist and ignorant outlook. To compete with China we have to make things; more than we are making at the moment. IF as a nation we decide (at long last) that we should be growing our manufacturing sector then we need skilled/trained people to achieve this. We have a skills shortage at the moment and given that absolutely no effort is made to promote or encourage engineering/scientific study or work then the prospects of achieving growth in this area are somewhat bleak! In this respect China, India and Russia are massively stronger than the UK and are better resourced (investment). To pretend that any CURRENT disparity in the level of environmental controls and the workforce pay/conditions between the UK and these emerging nations are likely to be the REAL long term barriers to UK manufacturing success is misleading. Germany is still able to retain its position as one of the world's top exporters of manufactured goods?
  13. What standards have improved that are going to benefit this country's global competitiveness? NONE!
  14. The fact that the arithmetic skills of "Leeds Bint" and several posters on this forum seem to be below that of an 11 year old grammar school pupil of 30 years ago is worrying but not surprising. The widespread dilution of standards in all areas of our society and the emergence of a "mediocrity rules" culture is shocking and a chilling reflection of our similarly inadequate regime. God help us!
  15. A really modest drop given that Obama has a strong track record of spouting some really naive protectionist rhetoric. Expect quite a bounce if (as expected) his handlers make him appoint some non Democratic Party individuals to fill senior Treasury positions.
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