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Old_Traveller

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About Old_Traveller

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  1. Does all this mean that not even QE can be produced fast enough to inflate the debt away either?
  2. The original thread was removed it seems? cant get to it through the links here.
  3. Ok. Thanks for the anecdotal, and good luck to those sellers. If they succeed to be among the "chosen ones" managing to actually sale at this low volume levels they can indeed feel proud and happy. But for the immense majority of sellers still seating it out this still is a blo@dy STAND OFF.
  4. This is getting tiresome. Really. New trend? on what? show me real decent transaction volumes and Ill show you a trend. Fruck it.
  5. Oh wait a minute, are you actually suggesting... no it cant be... surely not... you saying unemployment is down?!?! Ok then, I give in.
  6. Well, in my book, last time I checked forced sellers are typically those that conform the majority in a downward market... in any sector. Would a non forced seller ever sale something for less that what he paid for it? there. Now, "forced" can be defined with many degrees: forced as in "no job, am repossesed, cant keep up with mortgage" (mechanically forced) or forced as in "my neighbour sold for 250K, unless I sell for 230K my other neighbour will sell first and I would like to move by year end" (sentiment forced).
  7. Up on what? a volume that is not representative by historical standards? how many transactions? until volumes become up to par with more reasonable levels it can not be otherwise. Show me first 80K+ transactions and then we are talking. Also please do not dare to forget the Land Registry.
  8. Indeed. But just so far. This is usually called a standoff, and will be eventually dispelled. The only question and the raison d'etre of this forum atm is discussing how and when.
  9. Then read again my last sentence: "The key to a return to normal volumes relies mainly then on an increase in stock which is only constrained by potential sellers not yet forced to sell."
  10. Well think again then. Lack of credit is simply helping sustain prices not limiting volumes. The low level of transactions is primarily due to lack of supply, i.e. stock available with a "for sale" sign, down to historical levels. The low level of stock is such that even with the limited finance prices are being kept stable. Demand is limited by financing constraints yes, and it will be so for the foreseeable future anyways. The key to a return to normal volumes relies mainly then on an increase in stock which is only constrained by potential sellers not yet forced to sell.
  11. When volumes are high these indeces tend to work well as a big representative amount is being taken into account which smoothes out any parameter not normalized. But with low volumes things need to be scrutinized a bit further. I am not suggetsing the 1.6% is a fallacy, but at the same time, given the low transaction number I would not conclude either the figure is as representative as it was in high volume periods. That's why I would need to take a look at the population used in the month and their stories. The fact the median house price in the August sample may be much higher than usual should have been normalized and thus not relevant. What can be relevant in the other hand though is if the mortages used for the sample have been withdrawn or otherwise not followed through to completion in sufficient numbers after the measure was taken for example, or if the median buyer profile is a relatively more wealthy cash rich with little patience for negotiating prices down, for example. These things are not normalized in the formulae. With low volumes factors like these tend to skew results, not so much with high volumes.
  12. Sad to say that is not good enough, and probably an inacurate statement to suggest that is the resason of the +1.6%. Both Nationwide and Halifax formulas allegedly correct and compensate for different house price ranges (types, location etc) so to normalize the effect of such swings in house type from one month to the next. As such even if only more expensive type / size houses in prime locations have been sold in the last months that effect has been normalized in principle. I do not think that is the reason for the 1.6%. to find that out I would need to really see the property portfolio composition before crunching the numbers. Have large mortgages been accepted and then withdrawed? How is the Nationwide formula exactly normalizing? and how does the mortgaged properties in the period affect that normalization? May seem boring but given the extremely low number of transactions statistics tend to go out the window; thus the need for a detailed review of the overall property population, current status and their impact within the nationwide formulae.
  13. It is simply amazing. The figures behind the index calculations should be open to scrutiny, specially in times like these when supply is contrained to historical lows. I really would like to see what property portfolio forms the basis of August's index. Mortgages used going ahead or cancelled? house types? locations? everything. It feels like driving blind.
  14. Remember mine is just one opinion though. By the way, locking in a 2 year fix starting Dec 09 will probably leave you exposed for those potential rate hikes when your variable kicks in after that. Consider reviewing interests on 5 year or longer fixes in case you also think rates will shoot up. Otherwise just be mindfull you may not be able to remortgage by then if prices continue dropping and lending tightens up further, and therefore plan for the worst i.e. monthly mortgage outgoings increasing.
  15. Firstly I do not think houses in Guildford are going over asking price, much less if that asking price is 2007's... Seasonally and anecodtally a few might have, at the high end, but probably that is about it. Do not believe Estate Agent hype (with all due respect for Mildura). If you are not in any particular hurry, and if you have a good deposit I'd personally advise to keep on saving, maximize deposit and wait... unless you can reach at least around 30% from peak now. Looking at it from the purely "stock available" issue, chances are you will have much more to choose from over the next year or two. But also, any "paying close to asking prices" now has a lot to do not only with lack of stock available but also with the season... try timing your offers in Christmas or New Year... I would recommend you keep reading here the main forum posts on economic developments. Next government, wether Labour or Tory will probably have to raise taxes, control budget and probably... stop QE (if not done by then...). Also there is a good chance regulation may be tighter on bank lending, reseves etc which may put downward pressure on house prices. Many things will probably change. Overall I would consider the likelihood of mortgage interest rates hike in a couple of years very high and that will affect House Prices down. Wether those drops will compensate for the hike in interest rates it is yet to be seen and it will depend on your deposit size; in any case you may still have a year or two to lock in a reasonable mortgage rate, plus if you have a big deposit this may not be much of an issue anyways. Good luck!
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