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House Price Crash Forum


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About jimj

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  1. Here in Northwest Guildford, there have been a number of reductions in recent weeks. I would say about a quarter of properties have had knockdowns of around 5% or even 10% on right move. There also seems to be more property on the market compared to a year ago so I am expecting further falls.
  2. Thank you for the kind reply! Well we may be retired but we do feel rather young and as former teachers, we are quite used to having young people around! We've spent so much time abroad in our careers that we do need to settle in one city and yes, Cambridge is lovely. The house in Guildford is to be sold so that we can buy in Cambridge and we plan on visiting the city next month. I was just hoping to get an idea ahead of which are the nice & not so nice areas. We shall, of course, be talking to local estate agents and having a good look around and indeed, we probably will end up renting for a while but I just wanted to get some thoughts ahead of time. I think the upper limit budget is 380,000. We like houses such as the following http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26907757.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-16717686.html Oh yes, and bus passes may indeed be going away!
  3. I would appreciate some guidance on buying a property in Cambridge. My wife and I are hoping to move to the area now that we have retired and generally, the prices seem lower than the Guildford area where we currently own a house. We hope to sell the house in Guildford and buy a retirement home in Cambridge but we know little about the area. We visited the Cambridge area recently and quite liked the houses in Milton. inMost of the houses seemed modern, perhaps about 10-20 years old and there were plenty of four-bedroom houses also. I had a good look round Rightmove for all of the houses in Milton and it looks like the kind of area that we would like to move to: any comments on Milton would be helpful. Also, what other areas of Cambridge are generally quite nice and would be at about the same price range as Milton? We don't want to be too far away from the city since we will rely on our free bus passes to get in and out! For instance, we made a journey over to Swavesey to view some houses that I noticed were for sale but it's a bit far out. Please give me some area names that I can tap into RightMove and search for. but Your kind thoughts would be most appreciated Jim
  4. Yes, definitely still the case north of the A3 as well where prices are close to the 2007 peak but little seems to be shifting even though there is clearly more coming onto the market.
  5. I haven't seen any obvious increase in stock levels in Guildford in the last week or two: it's been pretty low level for some months now. I hope that we will start to see more properties on the market especially as there have been plenty of press reports about the Nationwide and Halifax index increases. This might spur on would-be sellers to list their properties which would then dampen down or even reverse the figures from the two main indices.
  6. I definitely think you should wait. I've been watching house prices in Guildford like a hawk for 10 years and I'm certain there is much more scope for downward movement. At the moment, the high asking prices (and occasional achieving prices) are due to lack of supply which cannot go on forever. Guildford may be relatively prosperous but it's not immune to economic downturn and with unemployment expected to increase by another million over the next year, I expect house prices in all parts of the country to start decreasing once forced sellers appear en masse. If your rent is as much as you expect to pay in mortgage interest, then why bother purchasing? You don't have to worry about expensive things such as maintenance, and the worry that prices will move downwards. My recommendation is to wait. For what it's worth, I don't think interest rates are going to go up any time soon. While the economy still languishes in the doldrums, the Bank of England seems prepared to keep the cost of borrowing low. I'm one of those who thinks we're in a significantly deflationary environment, but even if I'm wrong, and inflation appears I'm not sure the cost of borrowing will increase. After all, at the end of 2008, when inflation figures were still relatively high, the Bank of England still reduced interest rates. The CPI index has only recently come under target even though interest rates have been kept low for a long time. Therefore, I would not be concerned about the inability to obtain a competitive mortgage rate next year. Anyway, even if I'm wrong, and the Bank of England increases interest rates, that will only bring increased burden on the highly leveraged housing market causing more forced sellers, and more downward pressure on house prices.
  7. I monitor GU3, Northwest Guilford, and there are hardly any houses coming up. This has been the case for most of this year and when they do appear, they tend to be very highly priced. Surprisingly, some of these appear to sell at high prices and I think this may be one reason why some of the indices are reporting small house price increases: the sheer lack of supply means that unwise buyers are buying at a premium. It doesn't strike me as sustainable because once properties appear in volume, asking and selling prices will likely move down.
  8. In North Guildford, a three-bedroom semi recently sold for 218,000. Several terraced houses around the Mandeville Close area sold for around 200,000 a few months ago. That should give you an idea of where to go. Personally, I would wait until later in the year because in 2008, there was little change in North Guildford in the first half of the year and then a very sharp drop in the last six months. Since the end of 2008, asking and achievementprices seem to have stayed the same. To that end, I think North Guilford is starting to look a little overpriced compared to other regions, and I really expect prices to start moving downwards soon.
  9. Hi Free Trader. I had a conversation recently with a good friend about quantitative easing in Japan and I wonder if you can shed some light on the topic. Given that Japan has battled deflation years, prefers a low value Yen for its export driven economy, and has massive government debt, would it not be a good idea for Japan to engage in quantitative easing on a massive scale? If quantitative easing has the danger of stoking inflation and lowers your currency, there will be less problem of this in Japan compared to UK/USA. Now I know that QE has been tried repeatedly in Japan, but I was under the impression it had been done so on a comparatively low scale. What could stop the bank of Japan upping QE to a much bigger level?
  10. Please could someone explain to me in layman's terms why central banks are forced to raise interest rates if these gilt yields rise? I always thought that the Bank of England was free to set its own interest rates and would do so according to its inflation target of 2%. I get the impression from this discussion that there are other factors in play also. That is, even if inflation was under control, the Bank of England might still be forced to raise rates due to some "other" factor.
  11. I've been monitoring Northwest Guilford for over a year now. I think you're right: there has been an increased number of properties coming onto the market in the last week or so, when previously it had been fairly quiet. There are very, very few reductions and even a few price increases! But this was the case last year: it was not until the middle of the year that prices began falling in Northwest Guilford, whereupon they suddenly started decreasing a lot right through till Christmas. I'm hopeful that the same thing will happen this year.
  12. it's interesting that the writer predicts a wave of properties appearing on the market at the end of this year as beginning of next. The reason is because of unemployment and the poor economy apparently. Here in Guildford, there seems to be a lack of property coming onto the market at the moment. If a wave of properties comes crashing in later this year, that should force prices down.
  13. And now in the Northwest side in Guildford, the lowest price I've seen for detached house for years. £234,950 3 bedroom detached house for sale. This would have been on the market for at least 300 K and probably a bit more 12 months ago. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...on%26index%3D30
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