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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by whojamaflip

  1. Seeing as we are going all Japanese with 0% interest rates, I'd like to know how I can get in on the British version of the Yen carry Trade.

    How / when can it be done?

    easiest way is to enter into currency forward contracts. that itself aint the easiest thing to do...

    the highest interest paying currencies have legal restrictions on people entering into such contracts ( rouble, thai baht, etc) so you need to enter into a 'non deliverable forward' this is technically the same thing, but legally you are allowed to do it.

    ok, next step is to pick the currency pair. usually you would pick a portfolio to minimise your risk, but you need to have moderate understanding of the underlying economy.. i.e. avoid zimbabwea.


    lets say you are interested in 3 month contracts... AUD GBP looks like a nice pair (both generally stable underlying economies), so we see there is an interest rate differential (and hope that the rates DONT CHANGE).

    now, heres the carry bit. if the spot rate is 2.00 then the 3 month forward rate will be about 0.5% off that due to the interest rate differential. what you do is buy/sell the forward and (assuming spot rates stay the same) you will earn the differential as the forward matures.

    now the risks..

    spot rates shift around 1% each day, the markets are very volatile.

    your bet might go the wrong way, by 10, 20 or 30% in the 3 months where you earn 0.5%.

    interest rate changes by the various central banks will upset things for you.

    IMO there higher return, lower risk investments. remember the JPY has moved 50% in just a few months. nobody is saying it wont happen again (in either direction).

  2. It's utterly outrageous what's going on. If you work in IT I'd urge you to write to your MP about this issue.

    I've been a contractor over 15 years. I can cope with companies outsourcing work because it's hard to see how anyone can stop it. What I cannot abide is this Goverment allows hundreds and hundreds of thousands of Indians in on work permits to flood and depress the entire industry, putting many native IT people on the bench.

    Incredible that this is happening in our country. People need to wake up to the threat that is New Labour and realise the scale that this is happening on.

    Over half my contracts since 2000 I've been paid to rewrite the sh1t being written by an Indian (just out of university, flown half way round the world to take a job that should have been given to local), on the other side of the office.

    I'm now 'resting' as there isn't much going on in the way of contracts at the moment. No doubt there are hundreds of thousands of Indians doing the work I should be doing whilst I go and ponce off the state.

    I'll say in advance now to the inevitable politically correct dicks out there - f*ck off.

    this is classic protectionist reaction. I guess you are a similar age to me (Im 37) and the projects I work on indians get nowhere near. these are the kind of projects where if the app goes down for an 10mins then we all go home.

    if you competing at the same level as wipro consultants then its time to retire.

    if that rubs you up the wrong way then ffs read some books, write some code, play around with s/h unix machines of ebay etc etc etc. its not the indians problem. its your problem.

  3. How much physical silver does one need to hold to make it worthwhile?

    it would be difficult to keep more than 20kg in a home safe (the size of 4 bags of sugar). 20kg is 6 grand, so for an average pension pot of 200grand this is just 3%.

    1kg bar of platin, 1kg of gold and 20kg of silver with 200grand in equities (moving to bonds as you head to retirement) would make,

    25k + 20k + 6k = 51k = 20% of your portfolio.

    i doubt anyone would describe that weighting as imbalanced.

    gold wise 1kg is 125 (say 6 sheets) of sovereigns. or if you like for each sheet of sovereigns hold 4kg of silver.

    or if you prefer, for every 10grand of equities, hold 1kg of silver.

    Over those amounts & you should really hold a deposit box at a private bank. interested to here from others on ratio holding ideas.

  4. if chinese are willing to pay a higher price for that "mouldy locally produced fruit " with their stronger renminbi, UK farmers will ship all to China

    funny thing is, i worked in HK for a bit and lots of importers there (yes importers) bringing into china the irish lamb, NZ butter, scottish beef etc etc etc

    the only sector increasing output in the UK is agriculture. before too long UK will just be another new zealand.

  5. All right.

    Except for that nobody will "put up trade barriers to protect its local workforce and markets"

    Which means falling and permanently low living standards for a generation

    Same salaries, much higher prices, rebalancing of the economy back towards producing goods

    Poverty for many

    I think in the 70s (I was there, but young), the news always reported trade balances, which gave people a subliminal nudge not buy imported goods.

    same with buying mouldy locally produced fruit rather than green beans from kenya (global warming bs)

  6. Someone posted posted this link with regards to returns on Bonds.

    Is someone able to explain a little more detail such as how to buy, the risks involved, how to work out returns etc..


    Would like to get a better return thna 3% in the banks...

    normally the liquid bonds will be traded in units of 1000 (1000GBP, 1000USD...) but the price will be quoted as % of par, so if the bond is priced at 101.3 then to buy one unit you will pay 1013.00GBP.

    working out yield is easiest if you hold the bond to maturity, i.e if you want to invest the money for a year then pick a bond that has a maturity date in one year.

    when you intend to sell at a different date, then you need to take into account interest rate expectations etc, so its more complicated.

    pick one that trades at about par (100) obviously makes the calc easier

    XS0177949145 for example is priced at 100 ( http://www.selftrade.co.uk/quote.php?symbole=4uEG10) the coupon is 4.75 so you will normally get paid 47.50/2 = GBP23.75p every six months then get that plus 1000 back on 15th dec 2010..

    the likelyhoold is you will pay 10quid+ to buy the bond, so you need to take that into account also.

    numbers like 'income yield' are are think the two coupons annulised, then turned into continuous compounding, but really the amount of money you receive every 6 months, are what you're interested in.

    obviously you need to pick the company that issued the bond carefully. :unsure:

  7. Isn't it saying there has been an increased volume of cheap homes coming to market which has reduced the median.

    I'm sure the drops are large but this figure may be a bit skewed by poor families going into foreclosure as their mortgages reset.

    to be honest, whats your point? is that not exactly what you want to see?

    "The housing market is being driven by bargain hunters snapping up bank-owned foreclosure properties, which accounted for 58 percent of existing homes sold last month"

    exactly the sort of thing we want to see in the UK, to enable hardworking people to buy a house.

  8. Port Talbot is one of the most modern steelworks in the World. It has far less staff now than it used to but then many thousands are now contractors rather than staff.

    port talbot has i think two casting mills, quite configurable. i think llanwern has a single caster and its from the dark ages, although modern steel mills around the world are all fairly similar, places like llanwern are not viable unless they focus on speciality products.

    size wise there are much bigger mills worldwide and they have cheaper labour costs.. the economies of scale.

  9. i know this is gonna sound like i'm a looney.. but <_< i hope you get my point..

    if you hold a 1kg bar of silver in your hand, and tell yourself the price, you're probably not gonna be so suprised either way. (300quid + vat)

    with a sovereign in one hand and 3 x 50pound notes in the other, you'd probably go for the notes. 100quid, yea may I'd take the sov.

    gold & silver are both tangible commodities, just like sacks of rice or a tin of beans.

    the price is set by buyers meeting sellers, and since its an open market, that will be the consensus. if you decide to join you become part of that consensus, i think what i'm trying to say is..

    dip your toe in, get a feel for value, then either buy or sell, or exit the market. asking someone else how much to pay for 20kg of rice is pointless, the price is the price. buy a 1oz coin off ebay and keep it on your desk for a few days ;)

  10. Qe means they are holding a turkey regardless of how much debt they write off.

    This will be paid for either by higher taxes, reducing disposable income, or inflation, reducing disposable income.


    since RBS has 1.9 trillion GBP of debts on their books, it aint gonna be paid off. dont ask me what will happen, but if eliminate the impossible, then what you have left, no matter how improbable is....

  11. Our whole commercially issued debt-based money system is a Ponzi scheme.

    At any point in time, the total existing bank debt can eventually be repaid ONLY if much of the money necessary to do so is borrowed into existence some time in the future.

    This structural dependence of debt repayment upon additional future debt must continue ad infinitum.

    Bear markets, it is said, are there to return money to its rightful owners.

    this is not the end.

    this is not the begining of the end.

    this is not the end of the begining.

    this is the start of the PONZI UNWIND

  12. Rubbish?

    A very reasoned argument, not.

    Why don't you sell your flat, add the proceeds to the cash you saved, get a mortgage with the decent money you and your wife earn between you and buy the sort of house you want to live in. There are large numbers of people that want to sell their house, and I dare say if you even look half heartedly you could find a house that you would like to live in that's empty already.

    You can do that so why do you want to see people evicted and dispossessed?

    I put it that your attitude is appalling and you have no conception that people's circumstances can change. What was once affordable is no longer affordable. Think accidents, illness, redundancy. I'm glad I'm not as smug and heartless as you.


    its a free market. waiting to help out forced sellers is no crime.

    bad things happen to good people who do stupid things, so the saying goes.

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