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House Price Crash Forum

whojamaflip

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Everything posted by whojamaflip

  1. easiest way is to enter into currency forward contracts. that itself aint the easiest thing to do... the highest interest paying currencies have legal restrictions on people entering into such contracts ( rouble, thai baht, etc) so you need to enter into a 'non deliverable forward' this is technically the same thing, but legally you are allowed to do it. ok, next step is to pick the currency pair. usually you would pick a portfolio to minimise your risk, but you need to have moderate understanding of the underlying economy.. i.e. avoid zimbabwea. http://en.easy-forex.com/Int/interestratetable.aspx lets say you are interested in 3 month contracts... AUD GBP looks like a nice pair (both generally stable underlying economies), so we see there is an interest rate differential (and hope that the rates DONT CHANGE). now, heres the carry bit. if the spot rate is 2.00 then the 3 month forward rate will be about 0.5% off that due to the interest rate differential. what you do is buy/sell the forward and (assuming spot rates stay the same) you will earn the differential as the forward matures. now the risks.. spot rates shift around 1% each day, the markets are very volatile. your bet might go the wrong way, by 10, 20 or 30% in the 3 months where you earn 0.5%. interest rate changes by the various central banks will upset things for you. IMO there higher return, lower risk investments. remember the JPY has moved 50% in just a few months. nobody is saying it wont happen again (in either direction).
  2. this is classic protectionist reaction. I guess you are a similar age to me (Im 37) and the projects I work on indians get nowhere near. these are the kind of projects where if the app goes down for an 10mins then we all go home. if you competing at the same level as wipro consultants then its time to retire. if that rubs you up the wrong way then ffs read some books, write some code, play around with s/h unix machines of ebay etc etc etc. its not the indians problem. its your problem.
  3. it would be difficult to keep more than 20kg in a home safe (the size of 4 bags of sugar). 20kg is 6 grand, so for an average pension pot of 200grand this is just 3%. 1kg bar of platin, 1kg of gold and 20kg of silver with 200grand in equities (moving to bonds as you head to retirement) would make, 25k + 20k + 6k = 51k = 20% of your portfolio. i doubt anyone would describe that weighting as imbalanced. gold wise 1kg is 125 (say 6 sheets) of sovereigns. or if you like for each sheet of sovereigns hold 4kg of silver. or if you prefer, for every 10grand of equities, hold 1kg of silver. Over those amounts & you should really hold a deposit box at a private bank. interested to here from others on ratio holding ideas.
  4. funny thing is, i worked in HK for a bit and lots of importers there (yes importers) bringing into china the irish lamb, NZ butter, scottish beef etc etc etc the only sector increasing output in the UK is agriculture. before too long UK will just be another new zealand.
  5. "I have over 800 hours of paid coaching experience, just over 600 of which are with NHS clients." 500quid an hour thats 300grand of tax payers money spend on this BS woman. go-ooon. how many courses of cancer fighting drugs is that?? ..or not spent. I think 10 people died because of her.
  6. I think in the 70s (I was there, but young), the news always reported trade balances, which gave people a subliminal nudge not buy imported goods. same with buying mouldy locally produced fruit rather than green beans from kenya (global warming bs)
  7. duuno about you guys, but if someone gave me half a dozen 'worthless' defaulted mortgages I'd been round the addresses to tell the occupants to pay up or eff off. about time i found a place to live, or five.
  8. it will all end in burniation ( play trogdor & you'll get it) ..that is just like john law did in the streets of paris, he will need to start BANKNOTE BURNING in threadneedle street to convince you mugs that paper notes are actually worth something.
  9. with UBS 70k chf is the minimum if you dont have a swiss permit. postfinance has no minimum investment. not sure about CS etc
  10. normally the liquid bonds will be traded in units of 1000 (1000GBP, 1000USD...) but the price will be quoted as % of par, so if the bond is priced at 101.3 then to buy one unit you will pay 1013.00GBP. working out yield is easiest if you hold the bond to maturity, i.e if you want to invest the money for a year then pick a bond that has a maturity date in one year. when you intend to sell at a different date, then you need to take into account interest rate expectations etc, so its more complicated. pick one that trades at about par (100) obviously makes the calc easier XS0177949145 for example is priced at 100 ( http://www.selftrade.co.uk/quote.php?symbole=4uEG10) the coupon is 4.75 so you will normally get paid 47.50/2 = GBP23.75p every six months then get that plus 1000 back on 15th dec 2010.. the likelyhoold is you will pay 10quid+ to buy the bond, so you need to take that into account also. numbers like 'income yield' are are think the two coupons annulised, then turned into continuous compounding, but really the amount of money you receive every 6 months, are what you're interested in. obviously you need to pick the company that issued the bond carefully.
  11. rbs spent all afternoon selling the euro so at least one other uk bank appears to have money.
  12. to be honest, whats your point? is that not exactly what you want to see? "The housing market is being driven by bargain hunters snapping up bank-owned foreclosure properties, which accounted for 58 percent of existing homes sold last month" exactly the sort of thing we want to see in the UK, to enable hardworking people to buy a house.
  13. yea sorry about that, was having a cuppa & thinking the same
  14. port talbot has i think two casting mills, quite configurable. i think llanwern has a single caster and its from the dark ages, although modern steel mills around the world are all fairly similar, places like llanwern are not viable unless they focus on speciality products. size wise there are much bigger mills worldwide and they have cheaper labour costs.. the economies of scale.
  15. i know this is gonna sound like i'm a looney.. but i hope you get my point.. if you hold a 1kg bar of silver in your hand, and tell yourself the price, you're probably not gonna be so suprised either way. (300quid + vat) with a sovereign in one hand and 3 x 50pound notes in the other, you'd probably go for the notes. 100quid, yea may I'd take the sov. gold & silver are both tangible commodities, just like sacks of rice or a tin of beans. the price is set by buyers meeting sellers, and since its an open market, that will be the consensus. if you decide to join you become part of that consensus, i think what i'm trying to say is.. dip your toe in, get a feel for value, then either buy or sell, or exit the market. asking someone else how much to pay for 20kg of rice is pointless, the price is the price. buy a 1oz coin off ebay and keep it on your desk for a few days
  16. since RBS has 1.9 trillion GBP of debts on their books, it aint gonna be paid off. dont ask me what will happen, but if eliminate the impossible, then what you have left, no matter how improbable is....
  17. Bear markets, it is said, are there to return money to its rightful owners. this is not the end. this is not the begining of the end. this is not the end of the begining. this is the start of the PONZI UNWIND
  18. -1 its a free market. waiting to help out forced sellers is no crime. bad things happen to good people who do stupid things, so the saying goes.
  19. i think they mean 6 years to 'recover' (inflate) to previous values. no idea what data they are using.
  20. at 651.5/oz that's £153.36 plus about 20p for the silver bit.. a quick seach of ebay completed listings shows a few bargains were had.
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