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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by whojamaflip

  1. :lol:

    However, it's not completely in vain - I guess that if these are the arguments against my position, I should be raising my confidence level in it.


    "Around 500 tonnes of scrap gold entered the Middle East in the first quarter compared with around 300 tonnes for whole of last year said Jeffrey Rhodes, the chief executive officer of INTL Commodities DMCC, an independent financial services firm based in Dubai."

    btw - 500 tonnes per quarter is around the same as the rate it comes out of the ground.

    i.e. demand is twice sustainable supply & gold is still over $900/oz

  2. I live in a terrace house - I've been renting it for almost exactly 2 years. The landlord is a large charity which owns several similar properties in the area. They recently contacted me to say that they wanted to put the rent up by £15. I wasn't happy about this as we are living in a period of rent deflation and the property is a bit tired inside. I invited someone from the property managent team to visit and inspect the place and they are coming next week...so I was quite surprised to find my house on rightmove for a pcm rent some £55 less than I currently pay (and £70 less than the new rent that the landords would like to charge me).

    My feeling is that the agents have put this house on the market and if I, or anyone inquires about it they will say it has just gone but would you be interested in x, y or z. Is this normal practice?

    When the landlord advised me of the new rent (to be effective from 19 June) I received a Section 13 notice which basically stated that if I was unhappy with the new rent then I could follow a set process to have this matter arbitrated by my local Rent Assessment Committee. I have not, as yet, notified that body. Is it at all possible that the landlord can have instructed the agent to put the property on the market again in case I refuse the new rent?

    Grateful for any thoughts on this!

    just walk away.

    i had the same thing happen once, and to be honest a change was as good as a rest. its nice to move into a flat with new mod cons too.

  3. Gold is about £600 an ounce. The average house will cost 100 ounces or less before the bottom of the ratio. At todays prices that would make £60,000 for the average house but the average house is £160,000. Either gold is going to £1600 or houses are coming down, or a bit of both I think.

    it doesnt take a genius to figure out a similar amount of silver would be in th 200kg region. that is a lot of metal to deal with physically... shifting it around & storage will be a "non-in-significant" cost

  4. A few random points -

    Eating disorders have the highest mortality rates

    well spotted sherlock.

    Work is good for mental health in many ways - more mates, more cash, structure to day, stimulation

    the point is if you dont work, someone else is paying for you to live.

    GPs sign people off sick - should they?

    probably not. i imagine only a tiny percentage of people can actually do NO work. even stephen hawkings can hold down a day job ffs.

    You can work with all the above conditions. But it can be v difficult in some instances. In many of the disorders listed, people are too scared to leave the house

    scared? they will have a heart attack? stop the benefits, then they'll get scared.

    Medication can be ineffectual or even counterproductive for many of the above. Accessing evidence based help is difficult. Hopefully this will change with IAPT.

    stephen hawking

    People should NOT read the works of Oliver James. He is a donut

    everyone is free to form their own opinions & express them.

    Many people have mental illnesses, work, and are bloody miserable and hate their lives

    no excuse for them to sit am home watching sky, whilst the rest of us provide for them. being miserable has eff all to how tax money gets distributed.

  5. on the plus side. lets say your balanced consisted of

    60:40 stocks:bonds

    60:40 UK:world

    you would find it tough to find a manager who had the ability to construct such a portfolio (without a computer).

    I did a quick search with a few keywords and got a canadian one..


    there are 9 funds that form the 'fund of fund' and gives a nicely balanced portfolio that you dont need to worry about.

    as always do your own research, but look out for the fees!

  6. I have been thinking of buying silver for some time now but I am put off by the VAT charges and CGT. A colleague of mine suggested that I could open a bank account in Switzerland, buy precious metals at the counter (from what I read this is what all Swiss banks do) and hold it there.

    It may still be problematic bringing (any) profits back to the UK in the long run but what do you think of the idea? I am a complete newbie in such investments by the way.

    you can buy gold bars in the zurich train station (from 1 to 100grams), all banks sell them. most banks have the buy/sell price of 20franc coins (little smaller than sovs) in the window. the larger banks have a selection(pandas,brits,krugs,maples.) of 1oz coins on offer. selling is just as easy as buying btw..

    silver is more tricky because of VAT, still lots of places (munzen shops) that sell physical, or you can talk to a bank - note that you would need 50k euros before the banks would like to talk to you.... i think VAT is 9%, same goes for platinum.

    there are also warehouse/safety deposit facilities near the (ZH)airport which are outside of customs clearance. you caan buy silver VAT free and have it delivered to these places, you are free to go and visit with your key, but if you want to take them out you need to pass thru customs. obviously you can mail your goodies off to some other country.

    my personal bias would be a swiss etf held in a swiss bank. you would need a lot of silver to justify the annual cost of a deposit box (they start around 120quid/year).

  7. 3p in Bangladesh will buy you more than £3 in the UK

    Simply not true.

    A kilo of rice is about a quid in the UK (no idea, to be honest but a rough guess). In bangladesh it would be 80p or so.

    For food a worker will likely spend £1, then same again for accomodation (simple shack costs about 300quid). Leaving the other quid to spend on travel (20p) and beer. So 3pounds/day is about right for 3rd world labor.

    3p is probably from an employer deducting for food and accomodation and travel. (50hr week, sends a quid fifty to the parent at the end of the week).

    i wouldnt want to argue on the rights & wrongs, but thats the reality.

  8. Nope, he probably believes it.

    But the only person he is fooling is himself.

    He's acting like all other investors who buy at an auction. They all come away with the bargain that they paid 30% less than the previous marketing price, confident that the house is actually worth that marketing price.

    Um, there's a reason that they got it in the auction at that price, it's because no-one was buying at a higher price.


    According to his website he had 4 houses in 2000, now he claims to have a portfolio 'worth' 15m.

    he's probably valuing each house at half a mil, but in fact he has 40 teraced houses in corby that he's letting out to dhss.

    dhss is how all the barons make their money (thinking Hoogstraten ), but at 500pcm he wouldnt be able to scalp much after the interest payments. (thats just 20k/mo, how much does he pay himself? 10k?)

    needless to say he would have been leveraging at the maximum (80% LTV) throughout his career, and a 20% fall would leave him with no equity and the only way to expand via saving the scalp (however his gf is no doubt spending it all).

    as soon as interest payments start to rise (interest rates go up) he will no doubt be in the bankrupcy courts. or he might already be drifting there already...

  9. :lol:

    My goodness, what a load of made-up, arbitrary, nonsense.... I took you seriously for a second there. More evidence that the forum goes loony after 5pm on a Friday!

    However, it's not completely in vain - I guess that if these are the arguments against my position, I should be raising my confidence level in it.

    Oh, and by the way I very much doubt I will be runnning my position to expiry - it is (rather obviously) a way of levering in to other ways of expressing it if the rough direction is right - but it does have to have meet the stand alone risk/reward threshold at inception. Also, the band is not $40 it is $69, but never mind...

    Have a good weekend everyone!

    14,000 rupees per 10gramms is an important level for the indian market. (thats $880 according to xe.com)

  10. Interesting – thanks for the view.

    1. What do you mean here by “India” – the government/central bank or jewelry makers?

    The indian gold market doesnt consist of the CB & jewelers. I mean small time farmers who sell their crop & buy gold, if you are short the market you need to know where support levels are.

    2. Pressure from what?

    Market pressures. physical ETFs, jewelry, private 1oz coin, kilo bars on the long side. suppliers and short sellers ..short

    3. What do you mean here? Investment in production tends to increase production, no?

    On your last point, it’s not economics which drives price change, it’s positioning. Though the latter is often driven by the former, the distinction is very important, especially over shorter time frames and especially with commodities like gold which have little utility. Besides, if the economic situation were to remain unchanged that would be a pretty good result and a big boost to sonfidence in the banking system, which of course would drive down gold prices.

    As for where the "smart money" would go, what gives you that valuation, and how far do you think it will drop before returning there.

    I mean "lack of" investment in mines. gold output is mostly coming from scap refiners, gold being dug out of the ground is not increasing (to keep up with demand).

    all told, i dont see and reason to short gold generally, let alone to a $40 band.

  11. I have just bought a July (it actually expires end of June) 840/800/760/720 gold put condor. It pays out on a maximum 6-1 basis, but I can't lose more than my stake.

    you will lose your 'stake'.


    1) india buys around 850 which gives support above your first strike.

    2) a lot of scrap coming to market in the past months has dampened any rally that might have happened, but pressure is to the upside, not the downside.

    3) investment in mines means gold production wont be picking up anytime soon.

    the general economic situation is no different, and wont be different in june. Gold has gone sideways for the past 12 months, would likely go sideways for another two months also.

    the smart money would go on $900-$950, the smarter money would buy physical for the long term.

  12. i work abroad.

    last team i worked with (3 others) 2 also now work abroad, other one (a [email protected]) got fired, now in useless uk job.

    prev job, no idea (most went off into 'new media').

    prev job, got taken over by canadian company, most who left work for foreign consultancies (in uk & overseas).

    prev job, taken over by german comany.

    uni, one mate now working overseas.

    skool. most likely on dole.

    sibliings are in govt jobs (nurse & uni facilites)

    ** all the jobs of I have ever had were for foreign companies operating in UK.

    *** yes also tried setting up my own company, to difficult in the uk..will do it again for sure (in a few years etc etc)

  13. In order not to pay tax on offshore assets, res-non doms now have to pay £30K per year and give up all income tax allowances.

    While that won't make a huge dent in Abramovich's finances, it sure as hell has an impact on your average US or European VP working for GS or City and making $200K per year.

    people only work overseas for two reasons.

    60% of people working in london are foreign anyway. none of them (well maybe one or two) came for the first reason.

    now they have no reason to stay for the second reason.

    the 'british ones' already work abroad, primarily for the first reason.


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