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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by whojamaflip

  1. Is that sea ice coverage or sea ice volume? I believe the ice thinning leaves us with a record low amount of ice.

    wtf is it today with ice?

    " ice thinning" coined on HPC by clv101.

    its a whole new world of reasearch grants, bbc panoramas, and ponzi potitics.

    ice & a slice?

  2. Right then gang!

    Get on with this quick. Get down to Makro or CostCo, stock up on everything that has a long shelf-life

    Washing powder, 50 kgs

    Shampoo, 30 litres

    Soap, 300 bars

    . . . .

    Make a list.

    I'd do it soon.

    any idea how long; dove soap, arial color, & pantene pro V last?? 1, 2, 5, 10years??

    I rekon I get thru 1 bar of soap a month, shampoo is good for 3 months. same for washing powder.

    will the soap really last 25years?

    shampoo (pantene is 200ml) 40years?

    arial 12years?

    an informed reply please!

  3. 15%.

    With huge deficits, pensions, tax rises and everything else, somethings got to give. The less money people have to spend on mortgages, the better.


    I rent and pay pretty much 20% of my take home on rent(inc heating).

    whilst I could rent for 15%, it would mean,.. having neighbours outside my comfort zone.

    but buying... I expect rent to be higher since I dont need to fix things. For the same place, I would expect to spend 15% of my salary on the mortgage, the other 5% would go on replacing the roof, washing machine, heating, repointing blah blah.

    so, yes 15% is a good ballpark figure.

    maximum?? if house prices were at a sensible level, there would be no need for maximums ffs. no idiot would borrow so much ;)

  4. What everyone else needs to know is that you're simply making things up.

    if the sunspots dont start up again the ice will come down as far as scotland, and it could be 50years before they start up again.

    what you also need to know that 2007 was a massive year for sunspots(this is true), and the amount of extra energy hitting each square meter of the earth would add more to warming than the insulation given from an extra 0.005% CO2 in the air.

    normally the sun delivers something like 1200watts/sq meter of energy (i.e heat) to the earth.

    comparing with the suns activity in 1900-1950, the past decade recieved an extra 15watts/sqm.

    the contentious bit is obviously comparing heating of 15watts with insulation with CO2. this is the first link I found...

    * Carbon dioxide: 1.5 Watts per square meter.

    * Methane: 0.5 Watts per square meter.

    * Nitrous oxide: 0.2 Watts per square meter.

    * Halocarbons: 0.2 Watts per square meter.

    * Total from all greenhouse gases: 2.4 Watts per square meter.


    i.e. sunspots are waywayway more important than global warming. BUT assuming the sunspots come back (and we might not be at the top of the cycle, so more energy from the sun maybe...) then earth is gonna get very hot.

  5. If anyone was thinking of going short again now might not be a bad time to do it. There will surely be a pull back here - unless it's set to power over $1000 all in one almighty go.

    I would imagine there are a great many call options outstanding at strikes such as $1005/oz , $1050, etc etc

    this means that (oh dear this is my 3rd beer), market will drive towards the stops (for the boolean payoff options) then crash back because theres no general market support.

    ..what does that mean? volatility. expensive to purchase options.

    i.e. dont participate in the market unless you unleveraged (short OR long). but as i said a few posts back, oil might well get you a 10% gain then gold at the moment.

  6. Gosh, one tiny point higher than 8 whole years.

    You do know that this is about decadal changes, don't you? And where are your error bars? What was the level 10, 20 and 30 years ago?

    its not my chart, i've got better things to do than measure ice.

    if the sunspots dont start up again the ice will come down as far as scotland, and it could be 50years before they start up again.

    what you also need to know that 2007 was a massive year for sunspots, and the amount of extra energy hitting each square meter of the earth would add more to warming than the insulation given from an extra 0.005% CO2 in the air.

  7. welcome to hell :ph34r:

    no but being serious every town has its "nice" and "bad" areas take sunderland seaburn dene is a nice place but pennywell is a bad place to live

    this rule applies to every town in the uk its up to you to check it out !

    assuming you have a car, start in york and drive north until you start squirming.

    its likely to be a little south of darlington, somewhere around the dalton-on-tees A167 area (crossing the tees basicly)

    that said, head west enough to places like hamsterley and some of the smaller hamlets & its ok, but never as nice as south of the tees.

  8. Anyone tried to correlate that graph with house prices?

    Vague attempt at staying on topic ;)

    somewhere on the web there is a chart plotting economic growth and sunspot activity - both go in 9yr cycles.

    the theory is something to do with agricultural production being higher with more sunspots..

    the 9yr thing is due to the orbits of jupiter and saturn (no kidding!). causes tidal forces on the sun blah blah

    sunspots make the sun brighter (slightly), so could link to human optimism .. might be better to look at birthrates for a better correlation me thinks.

  9. i agree- any higher than 6% would be too much for debt-laden Britain

    not true.

    IR is the cost of NEW borrowing, it doesnt relate to servicing existing debt (other than those inflation linked doobries in murvs pension pot).

    ..one would expect at some point tax revenues to equal govt spending (maybe 4 years off), and then all bets are off - could easy go 8-10% IMO

  10. HB

    my gold has gone up 12.63% since jan-01-09 (chf)

    my shares have gone up 11.9% since jan-01-09(gbp)

    meanwhile my oil EFT (OIL) (bought jan 21) is up just 2.8%. (USD)

    GBP is not really a petrocurrency, so if oil flies, then GBP would not be expected to strengthen as much. I also see no reason why GBP should strengthen further against USD or EUR.

    I suggest holding your position in USD.

    btw I consider all my 'gains' this year to be inflationary rather than growth related (gold cannot 'grow' obviously, as has already been said here..), so if you like 'mean reversion' theories, oil is due a 10% rise - and then some


    $75 by the end of the year would be the smart money.

  11. Well, it would explain the early announcement of the extra £50 billion QE.

    Not buying it though.

    British GDP is 2 trillion. tax take is 700 billion.

    lets say GDP drops 5%, bung in the inflation deflator, adjustify against extra taxes on cars, no taxes on (more expensive) meat, bread etc.. banksters not making profits (corporate taxes), could easily see 150bio off the take...

    then all that extra unemployment benefit, housing support,no poll tax.. 100bio? well they spent 200bio on 2 million dosers, why not 300bio on 3 mio dossers?

    150bio QE covers the lost taxes, but not the extra spending..

    well we are only in May, and they'd just need to announce another 100bio of QE to cover it. seems resonable :blink:

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