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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by whojamaflip

  1. volitility has been so high (past 6months) that any kind of short/long play would be pretty expensive. so could easily fly about to 1200 or 800 from here with not much resistance from brokers needing to cover calls/puts.
  2. ..$63 million in physical gold reserves.. thats less than 2 tonnes. in volume thats the size of a small carry on suitcase. my point? well.. not worth builing a depository for, unless you had grander plans.
  3. http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/inde...verteilung.html couldnt find a UK chart, so you get a swiss one. 100k gbp gross is about 11k chf/month so looks 5% to me.
  4. baldy phil declared bankrupcy & emigrated to auz. so recorded i think.
  5. one in 500, makes just over 100,000 people. there are 425,000 millionares in the UK, that should be earning 5% in dividends/interest.. so clearly not 1/500 IMO. as someone pointed out, all contractors earning over 425gbp/day make that - and there are well over 1000 such jobs on jobserve that pay more. not to mention all the sales, healthcare, etc etc jobs... I reckon over 5% of people (in proper jobs) earn 100k+
  6. are we talking about airplanes or silver? my kilo bars are 999,0 (not recycled) and i wouldnt want to put them in my mouth. wiki says "purities greater than 99.999% are available." which is no doubt more expensive than bullion silver & I would guess for medical etc uses.
  7. they are 100% tax free if not in the ISA (upto 10grand or something)
  8. I think aviation prohibits recycled aluminium being used for aircraft parts. there might be similar rules for medical silver(?), or silver electrical cables in nuclear power stations.. but to be honest bullion silver is likely to stay bullion silver...
  9. if there is a genuine lack of money (i.e. units of exchange) to pass around then of course. if there is non-utilised labour, then printing money to employ these people on capital projects (railways, dams, tunnels, bridges etc) increases your assets in line with your monetary base, so this is fine. if you print money to temporarily hold down the interest rate, you are dissuading outside investment. investors prefer to keep money in low risk assets (commodities) and it drives a commodity bubble, this forces rates to rise. only when rates rise (and those companies that were saved from the chopping block before - go bankrupt) can real growth happen. meanwhile you have an inflation problem on your hands. will things get worse? GBP will fall thru the floor as soon as QE ends, rates will not be able to rise, government will not be able to issue debt, however it will be great for UK exporters (heard that before?).
  10. i think the point being made by several posters - was on using the ISA as an investment vehicle. since silver & gold are not interest bearing there is no point putting them in an ISA. the best things to put in would be high yeild (dividend) stocks. thinking BT... or to keep things on topic - how about de la rue (5% or so)
  11. 7000 litres/cow/year 90 cows 630000 litres a year, machine is probably good for 5 years, doesnt add up to me.. unless he thinks wholesale milk prices are going to skyrocket over the next 5yrs
  12. http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle...siness&col= doesn't really answer your question, but probably being lifted by silver. gold down (relative basis) due to money moving from gold to equities.
  13. next phase of the 'business cycle is increasing unemployment (another year to go), then inflation (should start kicking in soon), suger prices anyone?, then higher interest rates.. how high will interest rates go? 5% i doubt it, 8% more realistic, 10%+ why not? thats when the real house price crash will come,
  14. the chart doesn't look to troubling. the thing you cant see is that 1/3 of all female graduates never have kids. & women born in pakistan, have a firtility rate 3 times higher than british born women (i.e. 5 kids on average). I am 37 from a family of three, my two sisters are unmarried, childless, graduates... no kids here either. (going to rome in 2weeks btw )
  15. with the BOE mopping up all government debt (they hold a fifth of it now), 10yr rates are 3.7% odd. when the BOE stop buying (end of QE) and maybe start trying to unload some, where will rates end up? 7,8,9,10%??
  16. i wouldn't get myself into debt for 30years, why would i want to vote for someone who will do it on my behalf? ..it is not worth fighting for. its just too easy to sod off somewhere else. check
  17. +1 if pound coins cannot be made from gold because the gold is too expensive, then what do you plan making bread from when the flour gets too expensive?
  18. something little talked about is the inflation deflator. the BOE drop the upper quartile of price data (reasoning: people wont buy the items, switching to substitutes), which means that when sausages go up 25% they are dropped from the net inflation figure. when electricity goes up 30% its ignored, when it goes down 10% its included. what the BOE fail to appreciate is that the only people they are fooling is themselves. if interest rates are not set properly it will screw the currency... oh
  19. Why come up with the statistic at all? surely something like. Migrants not claiming asylum are NOT entitled to apply for council housing and therefore not be part of, or jump, housing queues. Migrants who claim asylum and are sucessful ARE entitled to housing and XX% are housed in council accomodation. the 11% statistic is meaningless.
  20. I just watched this story on channel 4 & it did have more than a hint of 'damn lies' about it. the first question is of course, what question are they trying to answer? there is so much 'framing' in the statistics that its impossible to figure out what question the statistics are trying to answer. the bbc article starts .."new arrivals in the UK are able to jump council housing queues" and then further down "Just 11% of new arrivals get help with housing - almost all of them asylum seekers." what the hell? can someone untangle that statistic?? can new arrivals, NOT claiming asylum apply for council housing? (I think not) therefore the only ones getting council housing would be asylum seekers... and I'd imagine thats most of them?? (certainly not 1/6) and how many people earning > 100kGBP can get council housing? yea exactly.. better off living in switzerland
  21. BA is a terrible airline. about 3 years ago I was on a flight and a battleaxe attendant told me to put my shoes back on WFT!! (business class) I said to myself, this is the last time I fly BA, and so far it has been. Easy on the eye, the only the to fly.
  22. 300 tonnes = 300,000,000 grams 60mil people, or a 5 grams per capita. thats litte more than a half sovereign held by the BOE on your behalf.
  23. +1 for the link. I think talking is good, so heres my take.. falls generally look steeper, maybe markets are reacting faster this time round. world industrial output is already way over -10% down (thats officially a depression?) 36months of it.. the biggest optimist might say we have another 12months to ride out.. and of course, the unanswered question - houseprices??
  24. constitutional - no. but i think unlikely. mostly its seen as a good idea. however I'm sure another party would tweak it a bit.. like mandate a decent supply of five pound notes (like from atms) mandate better control of counterfeit coins allow bank to intervene on fx markets (more fx swaps) allow/encourage back to use money supply as well as interest rates to control inflation. and finally.... fix the inflation calculation so that outliers (the high ones only ffs) are not exluded from the official figures
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