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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by whojamaflip

  1. another 'tractor told me that company directors couldn't claim benefits... just passing that on.
  2. Something I've been told about is what's known as the 'clinton box'. This is an imaginary region between you waist - chest and out to your sides & in front forming a cube. when speaking, you should always keep your hands inside this box. If you ever watch bill clinton you'll see how effective he is at communicating, and he uses the 'clinton box' without exception. watch GB and he gesticulates outside of the box continuously.. he looks like a real nut case.
  3. if you're an IT contractor you can't claim benefits when you are sittting on the bench. I did try claiming when I switched from perm to contract but they said I was paid too much . Anyhow I'm based in swizterland now so out of the system
  4. re: Glenrothes byelection Both Labour and SNP have 43% of vote, according to latest survey http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/se...enrothes.labour or even http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish...86908-20747930/ that would surely finish him off.. anyone know a likely date for it? october some time?
  5. Sentiment is really just http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_strength_index with amortisation, say interest rates were 0%, you would still be paying 3% a year to service the debt. simply adding 1% to the uk interest rates should be a near enough approximation, maybe add 1.5% when its down at 4%.
  6. in the T&C its valued at 895k with which you can get this in the same postcode http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-215...p;mam_disp=true both are 3 floors, only one has 4 garages
  7. i live in zurich. the bureau de change at the train station sells gold bars (1g, 10g, 50g, 100g) over the counter. no ID and of course you can pay in any currency you like. there are lots of coin shops that will do the same too & sell silver ingots (I've seen upto 1kg in the window). banks(all?) deal in 10f/20f coins (gold) i guess the bigger branches will do 1oy gold and maybe silver.
  8. going off topic slightly its the MPC to blame, or perhaps the fine print of their mandate to maintain 1-2percent inflation. A committee (management by concensus) is only going to be effective if they are given somthing to work with (i.e. data). the one thing they dont have is 'housing affordabilty' data, - i.e. they just work with a single number for avg earnings. unless you have a affordability distribution you cant test any model with econmonic shocks (be it food or fuel inflation) or tax changes, or of course interest rate changes WHICH IS WHAT THEY DO. i.e. they are mearly sticking the finger in the wind as it were..
  9. the model is to simple. you need to include an offset for interest rates, or more correctly cost of 1st year amortisation. just ask if you dont know how to do it..
  10. spread on gold is going to be less than equity mutual funds. provided things go to plan you would never sell gold anyway, since equities should outperform inflation (gold representing a zero growth asset wrt inflation).
  11. divide one by the other to give bell curve. e.g. persons weight / persons height(squared) = bell curve... body mass index thus, rental paid per year/ net income per year(some factor??) = bell curve without raw input data it's impossible to see if this is true, but we can imagine there a very few people paying more than their income on rent... and equally there are few people paying zero rent.. I'd imagine it to be a bell curve centered on 0.3, but as has been mentioned earlier at higher salaries the proportion paid would like be lower.. so the factor would need be under 1, but probably higher than sqrt (0.5).. howabout this.. rental affordability index = annual rent paid / ( net salary ^0.75) RAI index of 3 = limit of affordabilty, RAI index of 4 and above person must downgrade lifestyle or get a better job. RAI index of 2 or under = tightwad, move to better digs, life is for living.. example 1) 25k salary 500quid rent (500 x 12) / 25k^0.75 = 6000/1988 = 3 example 2) 100k salary 1500rent 1500 x 12 / 100k ^0.75 = 18000 /5623 = 3.2 example 3) 50k salary 1200rent = 14400/3343 = 4.3 feel free to post your own RAI index and describe if you feel the property is affordable (i.e. how far are you living in/out of your means)
  12. dec 5th 2002 the govt sold qinetic right at the bottom of the market (ftse was 3500) from 6000+ in the dot com boom. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...nqinetiq110.xml yes folks, the governments timing will be spot on.. ftse is going up from now on
  13. if we take a simpler example to start with... say. affordability of water. or proportion of income spend on water. I doubt you could find the data to build such an distribution over time. say today 1gbp is spent per person per day on water. and say the average salary is 50gbp per day (or maybe 40 if we spread over a week), then we need to go back 20,50,100,1000 years for the proportion spent on water... I doubt it has changed that much. same would apply for cost of a haircut, maybe a tooth extraction, etc.
  14. A bid to save Britain's computing heritage has been given a $100,000 (£57,000) boost by a joint donation from US hi-tech firms IBM and PGP. they updated the story
  15. at what point do you think the ratio breaks down? 100k salary? 250k salary? 1mio? this is a tiny fraction of the market... and you can rent properties for 1,2,3, 4k per WEEK in central london.
  16. affordability and earnings multiples are one and the same. if we ignore the fact that houses can be bought/sold and focus on rents only... you could imagine if a distribution of annual rent & salary ratio were to be plotted you would get a classic bell curve. i.e. earn 50k salary pay 14k on rent average. earn 100k salary pay 28k rent average. earn 25k salary pay 7k rent average. ok, so i't not brilliant, but salary distribution is not a bell curve either... people won't spend 50% of their salaries on rent long term. and less than 20% is unlikely unless you live in italy or somewhere. the transition from rents to house prices is fairly simple since wear&tear, maintainance etc are fairly constant factors, not much has changed in terms of house construction (in terms of cost of new build/cost of repair ratio) over the years. then chuck in interest amortisation... even if interest rates are very very low the difference in interest (i.e. our link back to rents) and amortisation is tiny over a period of 50yrs.
  17. I want to buy one of those magic pizza thingies. I can't belive those guys didn't see the market for it
  18. just a quick 101.. the fx market is totally unregulated, so broker dealers can do what they like to intervene and drive out stops or protect barriers. i.e. a punter (hedge fund) will put in a stop loss order with a broker.. when the market is quiet the broker dealer may try and force the spot price thru that stop, thus closing the position with said punter. (e.g. this can happen just before an interest rate announcement - markets can be really quiet) on the other hand, the punter might buy a barrier option (please pay me 1bln if usdgbp trades thru 1.80) and the broker dealer will try and protect the barrier. i.e. what you've seen today is simply a broker try to defend a 1.80 barrier. since we are at the end of august trading is quite thin, so normally it may have blasted straight through the 1.80, but the low volumes meant the barrier could be defended for a while.*** *** please dont ask me how the dealer makes money defending a barrier that they know will be breached.. i guess if i knew that i wouldnt be here right
  19. don't forget the 800/oz is in US dollars.. and the pound has dropped from 2.00 (mid july) to 1.80(today). so if you look at a page like this http://www.galmarley.com/Chart_pages/currency_charts.htm#gbp (sorry rubbish link) but you can clearly see that the price of gold in GBP is not losing any value at all....
  20. Thats not the case in switzerland. from the EKZ website.. Mit der Energielieferung dieses Tarifes erhält der Kunde ein Produkt das garantiert, dass der gesamte Bezug (Vollversorgung) seiner elektrischen Energie aus erneuerbaren Ressourcen stammt, in Wasser-kraftwerken Europas (inkl. der Schweiz) produziert und ins Netz eingespeist wird. With the energy supply of this tariff, the customer receives a product which guarantees that the whole reference (full supply) of its electrical energy comes from renewable resources, water plants in Europe (including Switzerland) produced and fed into the grid. **edit, thats obviously just one of the tarrifs, but the electrictly is mostly renewables rather than coal/gas/oil.
  21. funny this, I had a letter from EKZ yesterday (swiss provider), my electricity is going up to 6.5rp / kilowatt hour. thats about 3.25pence/kilowatthour.
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