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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by whojamaflip

  1. I think warren buffet said that you should always listen to the first sentence someone says. Erm sorry don't bother reading this bit
  2. yea the 12.5 billion less revenue to the exchequer will be sure to erm increase borrowing. and the VAT cuts will be passed onto the consumer... erm. erm. WTF are they doing? is there some reverse carousel trade I can do (get 17.5% refunded and 15% paid on a few or hundred mobile phones)?
  3. Northern Rock? Where did that money come from exactly?.. sure it will be paid back
  4. because no one else contrarian investing is a good idea in equities since return to risk will always be higher due to supply & demand. in fx it generally means you're betting on a trend reversal. historically its cheap against those currencies JPYGBP sterling is cheaper and we hear anecdotals of sony laptops going up in price 100quid overnight. I wonder what british goods are getting their prices cut in japanese stores? No - the only thing the japs spend money on is tourism. I suggest you pop down to the tower of london & count the jap tourists there.. when the numbers start rising SELL YEN. CHFGBP swiss rates were cut for "room to manoeuvere" I see that as a HIKE COMING. I guarantee you the SNB will HIKE rates long before the BOE start hiking. shorting CHF is very dangerous, or will be in a few months.. GBPUSD is more interesting. i.e an out of control plane. two out of control planes.. what do i know...? put your eggs in one basket & watch the basket!!
  5. Canada - main trading partner USA. It has a POSITIVE balance of payments http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/econ01a-eng.htm look at USD/CAD. A naive interpretation would be that USD was weak causing CAD to trade at parity to USD. USD has since regained strength and now the currency is trading back at 1.25 2005 levels. Therefore Canada is all well and dandy. UK - main trading partner is EU. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/the..._2008_final.pdf (300billion exports, 350 imports ~page 127). look at EUR/GBP. A naive interpretation would be that it has fallen 20% in the past 12months because it is not exporting enough to maintain the exchange rate. A naive calculation of what will happen... EU imports will drop and UK exports must rise (lets say 320 imports/exports), this must mean 60billion (that's a grand per head) cut in imports and UK PLC producing 20billion more tat for export. if anyone cares to, include flows from financial services and you get a country that is well up shite creek.
  6. how about everyone go work abroad for 10years & then come back when things are all sorted out
  7. This is not true. pound can move 100pips with ZERO trades being made. Forward expectations tend to be concentrated around interest rates rather than stock markets or ..whatever . Historically FX tends to push economies into LONG periods of exporting followed by LONG periods of importing I'd side a little with FreeDoc in that defending inflation has been overplayed (i.e. signal high rates). NOW Brown is signalling for joining the euro (world coordination bolloks), and the rate will most likely be at unity (thus saving the german inflation issue when they joined). UK PLC are gonna spend the next 10 years trying to make goods worthy of exporting. copper handbasin taps will not feature.
  8. I regularly get silver (pre 1968) coins in my change. Do you get gold sovereigns or base metal pound coins in yours? 100 years ago the chf/gbp exchange rate was 20:1 or something. swiss franc has not budged much against commodities (i.e. the silver the franc is made from), and is your best bet hedging against inflation - which you boys in blighty are about to find out about
  9. the swiss hold large mortgages due to tax reasons. plenty of drug companies, food exporters, engineering companies etc etc as well as banking
  10. for the record -2.2 good luck for the november poll
  11. This are solid backward looking facts that are either true or false. This is the wooliest politican friendly bunch of questions that GB gets every day from the soft media. "best placed", "downturn","worst placed", "best person", "mess", "lead", "other reason" WTF?? totally non-concrete you need to nail this guy. Something like "in order to put the economy back into positive growth, you have decided to pursue a keynesian approach by issuing more debt and bringing forward large capital spending projects. This will naturally crowd out debt issuance so you are parallelelly(sp? hehe) artifically lowering the cost of money by political interference to the BOE. A consequence of this will be the GBP losing its status as a carry currency and it exchange rate collapsing, thus driving inflation to double digit levels. Would a better policy not be stop issuing debt, reduce taxes for british companies that export and companies that produce goods which compete with imports (i.e. all companies). to summarise, we dont need any more PFI hospitals you nincompoop."
  12. as a brit you can work there for 90days at a time without a visa. getting the residence permit is fairly simple if your employer sponsors you (uk criminal record check required). yea, the work/life balance is a bit skewed in HK, but ok if you're a work hard/ play hard kind of person.
  13. read any basic economics textbook something like, Economics: Private and Public Choice, James D. Gwartney and all will be explained.... its not rocket science. too many people expect the media to give them an education these days and that goes for newspapers like the FT, and CNBC/Bloomberg, (this site) etc . read/download some decent books if you want to learn / be enlightened.
  14. at least one of the numbers is wrong. that would imply an average mortgage of 4 grand. (143m divided by 32k)
  15. "I'm not an expert, I'm just an actuary thats studied some economics. You're the professional, you're the estate agent" actuary 6 exams, estate agents..
  16. linky http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...629255520080926
  17. hospitals do not produce wealth. they provide a service and the cost of that service is equal to the value recieved. if they produced wealth then we should stop all other economic activities and build hospitals everywhere and everyone would either be a doctor, nurse or builder of hospitals. that is why they should be funded in a pay as you go manner. issuing debt to fund hospitals distorts the value of healthcare against the rest of the economy(or lack of it).
  18. http://data.tradingcharts.com/intraday_cha...&1222254070 CLV8 is oct 2008 futures
  19. the dawn of accounting time is likely to be a maximum of 20years ago. I.e. a school that is over 20years old (the building itself) would of had the same amount spent on its maintainance roof/electrics/heating system as it would cost to build a brand new school. This government prefers to demolish old schools and build brand new ones. Simply so they can 'pay later'.
  20. Since both schools and hospitals have both been around since the dawn of time the notion that we should be borrowing for something that should be expensed (in accounting speak) is simply accounting fraud. Both Hospitals and Schools should be pay as you go systems that should not hold debt. In fact they should be mandated to be well capitalised institutions so they are cheaper to run.
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