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douggggy

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Posts posted by douggggy

  1. Your anecdotals further my argument that it is BTL who are buying up most of the houses at these high prices. While the prices seem very high for a family wanting a house. For a slumlord who is going to crowd a bunch of young adults and immigrants into the house the prices are low.

    You are talking about houses for 280k? On a 2.75% variable on a 25 year that is a monthly payment of just under £1,300. So pack in 7 rent payers paying £350 a month each. That is £2,450 a month in gross rental income.

    The BTL pays the mortgage then has an extra £1100*12= £13,200 a year to pay for home insurance, maintenance, property taxes. And at the end of 25 years they own the house outright.

    until one of the tenants decides to burn the place down and go back to Poland and the insurance will not pay out because its arson...............

  2. bookies make the initial prediction and then adjust as bets come in. Taking a simple example of, say, an evenly matched football game with a penalty decider available (i.e. one side or other is guaranteed to win), the initial odds would be evens for both. If after a few bets come in, there's 200 placed on team A but only 100 on team B, then the booky will adjust the odds something like 1/2 for A, 2/1 for B. That way, whoever wins, the booky makes money (I've ignored the spread that they put in of course, but the principal's the same). It's no different to how stock brokers make markets in equities.

    yes, but what I`m saying is that the `book` is not (or has to be) necessarily balanced as per your example, paddypower do not want the bet, hence the odds, because they believe they `know` what is going to happen and at the end of day, this is how they stay in business

  3. Totally agree, I think maybe we're talking at odds (if you'll excuse the pun). My point is that the bookies are not making any prediction of the outcome, they're just pricing it based on what their punters bet on so as to make a profit regardless of what actually happens. I just think the punters have it wrong in this case.

    I'd take your bet but I already have 100 on with Ladbrokes for Labour as the biggest party. It's a bet I really won't mind losing of course.

    sorry, beg to differ, bookies make the market that punters buy into, ie; 1/16 on, infers a certainty of result that is not worth buying into..

  4. It's not paddypower that are wrong, it's their punters (the odds just reflect the odds at which paddypower make a profit regardless of the outcome). But, yes, I think this is another 1992 situation only with NuLab in power rather than the Tories. I don't expect them to hold onto a majority but I do think they'll be the biggest single party and Gordon Brown will go for a minority government with support from other parties on a bill by bill basis. The demographic changes over the last 15 years - Labour need a much smaller share of the total vote to win due to the distribution of votes over constituencies - along with the huge client state they've built up mean they're still going to be in power come Friday. It's probably for the best really though given what's coming. They'll certainly lose the next election, whenever that is, and will quite likely cease to exist as an organization shortly afterwards.

    @ 8/1 on, I`ll take your money! :D

  5. Don't hold you breath. Whilst I predict a few portillo moments (I'm particularly looking forward to Jaqcui Smith losing her seat), there's a good chance Labour will still be in charge come Friday morning. The probably won't have an absolute majority but it's quite likely they'll have the most MPs.

    paddypower odds tonight - 1/16 on. conservatives being largest party in commons, are they THAT wrong ??

  6. Anyone calling it ?

    I am reminded by our green lizard overlords that the conservatives won the 1970 election due to one set of bad trade figures published in the same week as the election, thus perhaps you are a week early?

    ie, super duper, extree black monday with added lipozones is a coming..

  7. I'm not anti-Polish: I'm anti-the practice of appropriating people to celebrate a given national identity when their careers and output undermine the credibility of doing so. To argue that Chopin's life and the bulk of his output symbolises Polish culture in the way that, say, Vaughan Williams's does Britain's, Mahler's does Austria's or Albeniz's does Spain, is simply to twist empirical evidence to fit political expediency.

    Probably because he was a minor talent whose work doesn't mean much to those who listen beyond Classic FM. I played the Polonaise in E flat (op. 26, no. 2) for my grade 7 piano and it was one of the most depressing experiences of my life. And incidentally, while its four major subjects may have been inspired by Polish folk tunes, its structure is pure late classical/early romantic sonata form, as developed principally in France and Austria. Try reading Felix von Weingartner on that if you don't believe me (though doing so will require a working knowledge of German, which as a Pole you may be reluctant to deploy even if you could).

    For those of us for whom the heights of the piano repertoire are represented, for example, by the Hammerklavier, the Wanderer-Fantasie, Goyescas and Rachmaninov's third concerto, most of Chopin's output (though I'd make a possible exception for his second concerto, the opening movement of which gives a faint indication that he just began to understand the more advanced possibilities of the form beyond Mozart) is lift music by comparison.

    the above post is a very good example of why this site `isn`t dead` - I am, and no doubt many others, are being exposed to a level of erudition, even if its got nothing to do directly with HPI, that would not otherwise be the case -

    well done everybody - carry on..

  8. The most disposed of publication in the country. Half of them go straight in a landfill. Why do they bother delivering it? Anyone with the internet uses that to find a firm don't they? You can even get testemonials and customer feedbsck form most of them.

    I do keep the Thomson's directory though, it's more 'local.' No Tubbs?!

    Many, many years ago I suggested to `Yellow Pages` that because the areas covered by each edition where so large, if you had a business on the edge of the boundry area, this would mean that your reach of your advert would miss of a lot of your potential customers. So why not overlap each editions boundry`s ? Their thinking was, and still is, that you would pay to go into two editions if this was the case.

    Or not, as appears to be the case now;

  9. I am very impressed for someone who has taught himself.

    My only constructive criticism is where you mention Brown allowing a 'boom' in house prices - boom is a positive world and many people will think "Ah, that's OK then!". Perhaps 'boom' should be 'bubble' as everyone knows that bubbles go pop!

    very watchable - would suggest a hook to get the people with 7 second attention spans who `need` to watch this,

    add the word `sex` to title ie, `affordable housing sex scandal`

    remove the sex bit after it goes viral

  10. HB is paid direct to tenants for private rentals.

    These houses in Leicester will only attract low income, may dependants type.

    Very dodgy whatever the yield

    of course none of our friends from the former colonies who are landlords are never ever ever, ever related to their HB tenants , because this would be just wrong (and illegal)...............

    and their brother in laws morgage brokerage firm would never dream of doing a self-cert for the owners of curry house that takes 25k a week on 40 covers, never happens!

    and of course, nobody has a massive mansion `back home` for if/when you get caught, never going to happen any way

    - Dear Mr ***, can you explain why your declared ``total ``` annual income for your restaurant is less than your total annual credit card receipts I have in front of me ..

    `` f**k off - you racist ``

    sorry to have bothered you Sir -

    NOT THAT I WOULD KNOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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