jpidding

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7349819.stm

An old college friend of mine bought around July/Aug last year. I didnt realise he was a poster on here until I met up with him over Xmas. He admitted he'd probably picked the top to within a couple of weeks, but really wanted to buy and can very comfortably afford the payments as he and his bird both have well paid jobs. I wont mention his ID, but I'll tell him about the thread and maybe for fun he'll wanna post. JP.

I've been looking into this. Northern Rock is now as safe a government bonds. Their account in Guernsey offers 4.3% gross which is actually above base rate. If you have a relative in Ireland, there they are offering 5%!!! You need a residential address there unfortunately. http://www.northernrock-guernsey.co.gg/ http://www.northernrock-ireland.ie/ JP

Yeah, I was just about to post that...... Article on BBC breakfast news today about gold going to 1000 "because its a safe haven and has been valued for thousands of years". Followed with a piece on how to buy gold. Either side of it were news of emergency fed rate cuts and banks going bust in the US, oh and "millions struggling to pay their mortgages in the UK" The beeb has certainly switched camps.

I have some friends who a few months ago decided to get some Polish builders in to do some extensive internal work on their house. They did some work involving a new toilet which promtly flooded when the first heavy rain came, due to them (illegally) joining the roof drain and toilet. There were other things which during the course of the work were spotted and told the builders to correct. The couple concerned went away for 3 weeks holiday in Oz, leaving the builders to correct the mistakes and complete the rest of the job. They returned to find that the builders had done nothing and had fecked off back to Poland WITH THE MONEY THAT THEY HAD ALREADY BEEN PAID (roughly 2/3 of the final agreed cost. The reason they got Polish builders was to save some money on the job! Hmmmmm.

http://www.walkawayplan.com/ I particularly like the part on the front page..... "Your credit will be repaired and be able to purchase a house in as few as 2 years."

Another strong sell signal is the DOW/GOLD ratio approaching 1:1. Personally I'll be looking to get out if we get to 2:1. J.

Just watched the light hearted chit chat rubbish with Lulu and some other cosey characters whilst on the phone to my mum. All of a sudden they cut to a sketch about how "investing in gold is not just for the rich man" and "you could tripple your money in 5 years". I imagine that previously this type of program would have been ramping the benefits of BTL. Things can change pretty fast! JP.

I'll have the Stylophone off you if you cant get rid of it! But only if it comes in the original box WITH Rolf Harris' grinning mug on it!

I have often withdrawn 5k from Barclays. They prefer it if you order the money a day in advance and on one occasion when I didnt order they could only give me 3k. This is in a branch of a medium sized town of 25,000 people. If there was a run on Barclays the first or second person would clear them out! Absolutely a good idea to keep a cash reserve in the house for emergencies. Also consider a few kilos of pre 1947 silver coins (uk shillings and florins from 1921 to 47 were 50% silver). Can be bought as scrap on eBay at or even below spot price.

My email: I was under the impression that interest rate setting by the BOE what to target inflation and inflation only. Over the past 10 years it has happily ignored house prices on the grounds that CPI (at totally non-representative measure of the cost of living) was tame. Now that house prices wobble the BOE steps in and makes an IR cut debasing the savings of all financially responsible people. When is the BOE going to grasp the nettle, do its job, reign in inflation and stop bowing to pressure from vested interest parties to keep the money supply ever accelerating? This was why the BOE was given independance to control interest rates in the first place. JP. Their reply: Dear Mr P, Thank you for your e-mail of 6 December concerning the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to reduce the official Bank Rate to 5.5%. Your email has been passed to me to reply. As you are aware the MPC’s task is to set interest rates to meet the Government’s inflation target of 2% (as measured by the 12-month increase in the Consumer Prices Index). Only by keeping inflation low can we avoid the cycles of high inflation, high interest rates and recession which characterised previous decades. In setting the official Bank rate, the MPC has to judge the outlook for the economy and inflation, and to decide what level of interest rates will ensure inflation remains low and in line with the target of 2%. The MPC’s decisions involve difficult judgements about the direction of the economy, the state of overall demand and the pressure on prices. There is inevitable uncertainty about the future. At any time, there will be some factors that may in themselves point to higher interest rates, while others suggest lower rates, or no change. Typically, it takes around eighteen months to two years for changes in interest rates to work through fully to inflation, and so MPC decisions are based on the Committee’s expectations of inflation, and not on the current rate of CPI inflation. In the news release announcing the recent cut in the official Bank Rate on 6 December, the MPC said: “Although output in the United Kingdom has expanded at a brisk pace for the past two years, there are now signs that growth has begun to slow. Forward-looking surveys of households and businesses suggest spending is moderating, broadly in line with the projections contained in the November Inflation Report. But conditions in financial markets have deteriorated and a tightening in the supply of credit to households and businesses is in train, posing downside risks to the outlook for both output and inflation further ahead. CPI inflation was 2.1% in October. Higher energy and food prices are expected to keep inflation above the target in the short term. Although upside risks to inflation remain, which the Committee will continue to monitor carefully, slowing demand growth should ease the pressures on supply capacity, bringing inflation back to target in the medium term.” In coming to its decision on 6th December, each of the 9 members of the MPC voted independently on the level of the official Bank Rate, having considered all of the available evidence. The minutes of that meeting will be published by the Bank on 19 December. The Bank has viewed the rate of increase in house prices over recent years as unsustainable and appreciates the impact this has had on some people, particularly on first-time buyers, and those trying to move up the housing ladder. House price inflation is considered carefully by the MPC because housing wealth serves as collateral for borrowing and directly impacts on consumer spending. As housing wealth grows, consumption and aggregate demand may grow faster and eventually lead to higher inflation. However, it is essential to understand that the MPC does not have a target for house prices, its only remit being to target consumer price inflation. Decisions taken by the MPC, which are often finely balanced, are always made in order to achieve this target. Turning now to consider inflation. Utility prices, and the cost of some other essential items including travel costs, may have grown faster than the prices of some non-essential items. But the CPI is based on the basket of goods and services bought by a typical household. That is why an individual’s perception of inflation may differ from the official CPI figures because the CPI is the average rate of inflation experienced by a representative household. Thank you once again for writing to the Bank. I hope that the above goes some way towards explaining why the MPC felt it was appropriate to reduce Bank rate at this time. Yours sincerely Roger Beaton Public Information & Enquiries Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH Predictable reply, but at least they bothered. I guess most of it is just a cut and paste job to give a standard asnwer.

Heard on BBC news 24 this morning that Paragon (UK's largest BTL mortgage lender), which raises its capital in the same way as the good ol' Rock, has seen its share price fall 40% yesterday. There was the usual "this is not bad news really, fundamentals are strong over the next 10 years" waffle from a VI on the program. This seems rather big news for it not to be covered on the website. J.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7035723.stm "The bad news for parents is that toy prices - after falling for a decade thanks to China's cheap labour costs - are beginning to rise and this year's toy recalls could result in delays in getting toys on shelves. The toys on this year's list have an average price tag of £32, compared with £30 in 2006, and toy industry experts say that prices will rise further. " Time to take toys out of the CPI basket then! J.

Good one mate....Jesus this digital age thing is fast!

Not guilty BB....but would love to do that! In the meantime let's keep spreading the joy....BUMP.

....and some more. Good bear Friday this is turning out to be.

Sorry if already posted (there are so many NR threads...couldnt be bothered to check them all). J.

Wife: Oh, I just can’t get these numbers to add up Husband: Like we’re never going to get out of this hole. Wife: Credit card debt, does it ever end? Salesman: [entering from who-knows-where] Maybe I can help. Husband: We sure could use it. Wife: We’ve tried debt consolidation companies. Husband: We’ve even taken out loans to help make payments. Salesman: Well, you’re not the only one. Did you know that millions of Americans live with debt they can not control? That’s why I developed this unique new program for managing your debt. [Holds up book] It’s called, “Don’t Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford” Wife: Let me see that. [Reading from book] If you don’t have any money, you should not buy anything. Hmmm … sounds interesting. Husband: Sounds confusing. Wife: I don’t know honey, this makes a lot of sense. There’s a whole section here on how to buy expensive things using money you’ve “saved”. Husband: Give me that. And where do you get this “saved” money? Salesman: I tell you where and how in Chapter 3. Wife: OK, what if I want something but I don’t have any money? Salesman: You don’t buy it. Husband: Let’s say, I don’t have enough money to buy something. Should I buy it anyway? Salesman: No. Husband: Now I’m really confused. Salesman: It’s a little confusing at first. Wife: What if you have the money, can you buy something? Salesman: Yes. Wife: Now, take the money away. Same story? Salesman: Nope. You shouldn’t buy stuff when you don’t have the money. Husband: I think I’ve got it. I buy something I want, then hope that I can pay for it. Right? Salesman: No. You make sure you have money, then you buy it. Husband: Oh, then you buy it! But shouldn’t you buy it before you have the money? Salesman: No. Wife: Why not? Salesman: It’s in the book. It’s only one page long. The advice is priceless and the book is free. Wife: Wow. I like the sound of that. Husband: Yeah, we can put it on our credit card. Announcer: So, get out of debt now. Write for your free copy of “Don’t Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford”. And, if you order now, you’ll also receive, “Seriously, If You Don’t Have the Money, Don’t Buy It” along with a twelve month subscription to “Stop Buying Stuff” Magazine. Order today.

You're welcome. Its a fix for one month only. The yeild curve is seriously negative....as discussed its the short term cash that the banks are having trouble getting hold of. If you price risk in terms of reward premium, then this bank must be pretty shaky. 11% PA works out at 0.87% monthly compounded. So bung in 10k and you get 87 quid less tax for your trouble...call it 50 quid net. Its basically a night out on the piss in return for 10k lent for a month.

https://www.bankinter.com/www/en-es/cgi/ebk+home "BANKINTER, S.A., is a financial institution subject to the supervision of the Bank of Spain"

Cheers mate....really made me laff!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2007/0822.html

Dont be afraid! If you're worried about weight dont be. £10k weighs 1kg as a rule of thumb at today's prices. You can buy sovereigns over the counter at any reputable coin delaer (search this site and you find more discussion on this than you can ever read). Best spreads over gold spot price can be had for volume of £10k+ (you're talking 3-5% above spot here to collect physical sovs for yourself). Baird in London give best deals, but you have to be direct with them and they dont have time to "chat" about gold. Tell Tony Baird you have £20k to invest and you're looking for best price...no messing. If you're worried about price fluctuations in the short term then just buy a fixed amount in £ terms every month. Storage is up to you. Baird will store it for you (as they've done for me) for not much cost relatively. But £50k worth will really fit into a small box....surely you can find a hidy hole somewhere in the house that no one would ever find. Dont worry about touching the stuff. Its inert and does not tarnish....hence its store of wealth feature over 1000's of years. nuf said. J

Thanks ae589...that was gonna be my resopnse. Just to add....lets take the old condition when the registration changed in Aug (only once a year). Load of people used to buy then (I think the stat was that 50% of the years cars were sold in Aug, hence why they changed the system to sperad it out a bit more). Now a graph of MOT's due would be relatively flat for most of the year, but then dip as we go into june/july (people holding out for new reg's in Aug) and then peak up as the cars re'g in Aug came in. That peak would appear to move as time went on and more MOT's would be carried out in the month of Aug. The peak would not constantly sit a couple of months ahead in time!!! Please can we stop this banter now. We have done this to death. It my thread goddamnit! Fact...more US teaser rate mortgages will reset Jun next year than they did this year. Around $42billion worth as opposed to $26billion worth. The only way the graph will change over time is if someone today takes out a one year teaser rate morgage now, which will reset in one years time. In this case the graph can only get worse, not better! JP.

Gotta agree with ae589....bearbullfence is misenturpreting the chart. The peak ahead shows a high number of "teaser rate" mortgages taken out around two years ago which are due to reset to higher rates over the next year or so. If, two years ago more people had opted to take out standard variable rate mortages or 5/10/30 year fixes with no reduced introductory rate then you would not see this approaching peak ahead. James