jpidding

I visited Venezuelan island Isla Margarita 5 years ago...Chevez was just being re-elected. Most people liked his socialist style and at the time I felt sympathy for his socialist activities....nationalising the big oil companies "for the benefit of the people". Now he seems to be losing it. He will cause terrible shortages and drive a huge black market with his policies of currency devaluation and price controls... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8451056.stm There will be a revolt at some point I'm sure as people go hungry and social order breaks down. JP.

Last time I looked gold was at $1100 or so. So according to your calculations it will rise another 2.5 fold? Thats not what I call "near the peak". Also those inflation adjusted calculations use "official" inflation stats. If you use the shadow stats you get an adjusted figure of more like $5000. If you use an adjustment based upone money supply growth vs available gold growth you get astronomical numbers.....well above $20,000. I agree gold will one day be in a bubble, but it has ceratinly not gone mainstream yet. How many people discuss their gold holdings at dinner parties, or which junior mining stock is about to go into production? JP.

OK, here's my favourite....its a doozy as our american friends would say. If anyone doubts that we will have inflation, just look at the chart. Base money (from which the fractional reserve banking effect multiplies to give broad money supply) has gone up 2.5 fold in the US. This is due to quantitative easing. The UK is of course doing this too. At the moment the velocity of money has massively reduced, so the inflation is not aparent in consumer prices...YET. Merry xmas! JP.

Sounds bad.....you know I'm bordering on the "run for the hills with all the beans and fuel you can carry" brigade, but this does sound ominous. Seems like money printing will be the only route out of all this. Did you listen to the four inflation vs deflation debates on Financial Sense? On that subject, Jim and John read out and answered a question that I called in with. Go to http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html and listen about 47 minuets in to 3b (q-calls). James

Morning Mate!

I used to enjoy coming on here for a quick browse of the latest threads. I could run my eyes down the page and quickly and easily pick out items of interest. Now it just looks like something that was done on a Commodore 64.....blocky, clumsy and basically just rubbish. I for one will be browsing less, if at all. Traffic will be down I'm sure.

I think at least for the next year we wont see big hikes in money supply, but I would be a bit concerned about holding all my assets in cash (or bonds) beyond about a year. The big question as far as this forum is concerned is whether or not that extra money will feed into house prices. My feeling is that for the next couple of years we'll tend to see essential (cash bought) living items such as food and energy go up, whilst things which require leverage (cars & houses) will remain under considerable downward pressure. At some point (when that will be, who knows) it will be a great move to buy a house with a 5 year fixed rate mortgage. Judging that time when the bond market has not yet got a sniff of inflation will be the key. My head hurts just thinking about all this stuff.

OK, most people on here seem to be in the inflation camp, whilst the government is waring us of the dangers of dreaded deflation. We have been seeing a massive default / deleveraging at the consumer and corporate level. This rush to cash has given rise to all of the deflation hype. Maybe broad money supply (M4) which includes all money created by fractional reserve banking system has indeed fallen, I dont have the links to reliable data on this, but thats whats being suggested. The governmants and central banks have responded by printing (electronic) cash and feeding into the system in terms of loans to banks and corporations. Whils these amounts are eye-wateringly large they probably still dont totally compensate for the broad money supply drop, because the velocity of money has fallen off a cliff....everyone is just sitting on the cash. Problem comes when it is realised that money has been devalued and folk start to borrow and spend again. When leverage returns (and it will at some point) it will be off a much larger narrow money supply (M2) base. Once fractional reserve banking goes to work on this much larger money base we will see huge growth in broad money supply (and hence price inflation). In which areas this inflation will manifest itself in terms of price rises is another arguement.

I used to study at Warwick and know the area very well. I still have friends in the region and visit there a few times a year. Consider Kenilworth. You dont have to use the A46 to get to the uni, so travel would be a doddle. Its large enough to have the few shops / pubs / curry houses etc, but has a nice relaxed feel. Plenty of places to take the family on sunny days....parks, castle etc. Dont know about gardens & prices, sorry. Dont rule out Coventry....not the city centre of course....and some of the outer regions are just dire, but I have a friend who lives in a VERY nice house & neighbourhood a stones throw from the uni.....as you meet the A45 from the Westwood end of the site. To be honest, Leamington can be a bit of a snarly commute at rush hours (but nothing horrendous).....the town of Warwick may be easier and might serve your needs better. Hope this helps. J.

OK, I think its clear, the path which CB's are following is to keep dropping rates (down to zero if necessary) to try to stabilise the financial system and to get money flowing through the economy again. But consider this.....people with savings have their minds very highly focussed now on counterparty risk (will their bank go bust and defalut on their debt to the saver?). Even with government guarantees, there are a significant number of people who are aware that there just is not the money available should, say there be a simultaneous run on a couple of the major high street banks. So savers must balance the risk of default vs the gains made in interest. Now that rates are being slashed (and of course the chancellor takes his cut of what ever's left) the motivation to keep money in the bank is diminishing. I for one am now thinking that savings are not worth keeping in the bank. Should there be a currency crisis you will be much better off being able to lay your hands on cash rather than going to the bank to queue for what ever meagre amounts they hold there. My point here is that the deposits available to banks will diminish to near zero at rates go to zero. Over the past few years I have occasionally gone into branches of Barclays to withdrawer around £5k. On one occasion they said they only had £3k and could I come back tomorrow for the rest. I kid you not! This was a smaller branch in a town of over 25k people. Oh my god. Keep cash handy folks!

at http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course The final chapter may not be what you were expecting / hoping for but the whole thing should be viewed by everyone. Its very well put together, entertaining but above all extremely enlightening. Its simple enough for the average 14 year old to grasp, yet I have friends who work in The City who just LOVE it. There are 20 chapters and it can be viewed in stages whenever you have time. This course could be the most important piece of education you ever receive. Have a good weekend folks. Oh, and if you feel so inclined, send Chris a donation so that he can keep providing this great work to everyone for free. JP.

at http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course The final chapter may not be what you were expecting / hoping for but the whole thing should be viewed by everyone. Its very well put together, entertaining but above all extremely enlightening. Its simple enough for the average 14 year old to grasp, yet I have friends who work in The City who just LOVE it. There are 20 chapters and it can be viewed in stages whenever you have time. This course could be the most important piece of education you ever receive. Have a good weekend folks. Oh, and if you feel so inclined, send Chris a donation so that he can keep providing this great work to everyone for free. JP.

at http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course The final chapter may not be what you were expecting / hoping for but the whole thing should be viewed by everyone. Its very well put together, entertaining but above all extremely enlightening. Its simple enough for the average 14 year old to grasp, yet I have friends who work in The City who just LOVE it. There are 20 chapters and it can be viewed in stages whenever you have time. This course could be the most important piece of education you ever receive. Have a good weekend folks. Oh, and if you feel so inclined, send Chris a donation so that he can keep providing this great work to everyone for free. JP.

.....thinking of becoming a teacher!!! Anyone suggesting this to our friends down in Ashford??? (this touted as a solution to feeling the pinch of the credit crunch)

I'll offer even money on Citibank.

ok....have 2 Beck's on an empty stomach....watch it again and get back to me.

Had a long day at work...enjoying a Beck's in front of the TV....flicking through the channels on freeview sky. Used to get exacerbated by the "Property.TV" shows and "Overseas Property" channels. Now on More4 I see a program "Selling Property Abroad". Watched 10 mins or so and its all about a woman who bought a quaint little place in Spain for 50k, spent 100k on it and now has run into problems with the neighbours who have knocked down an adjoining wall, causing her place to subside. As she come to sell she finds her electricity supply is not legal. Enter the "expert" to help her sort in. To me this represents as big a shift as the credit crunch. This is just huge. A TV program about trying to shift "investment" properties which turn out not to be as they seemed. Is it the Becks's or am I over stating this? About to hit "post new topic" and get another beer. Signed, A happy JP.

Ditto....my thoughts exactly!

No joke...a legally trading UK company. http://www.paydayuk.co.uk/index.htm?p=cj&a...CFRSA1QodV0KltQ No further comment.

Great find SM2. Deserves a bump.

Plus, dont forget that the Germans are very debt averse. They have lower house prices in real terms than in 1980 (so I read). Higher IR's would be something they (as savers) would welcome. Even now you can hardly pay for anything with a credit card....even some petrol stations dont accept it.

...and what does that mean exactly?

I've been reading and posting on this site for years and appreciate it as a source of intersting links and dialogue. I run a "PC Tools" spyware porgram which runs in background mode and also performs regular scans. Just now it ran whilst I was on this site and it told me it couldnt clean some items. Got me thinking that the files it was trying to delete might be in use. I closed IE and ran the scanner again....it managed to clean it that time. I ran it again and it came up with an all clear message. I then ran IE again and clicked on a few HPC links. I then ran the spyware checker again and it picked up the following: Adware.advertising - "A potentially unwanted adware program that could be used to display various popup advertisments" Spyware known_bad_sites - "A spyware program that repesents a security risk for your computer" Both were flagged as "low risk" but I really dont like the sound of the second one. Moderators......care to comment? J.

Dunno....dont you just go and get it out of your wallet? Seriously though, I guess if your freezer breaks or something like that and you must have one, but no one else will give you the money then one of these sharks may be your only choice. JP PS I recently bought a freezer second hand on eBay for €20, even though I always keep at least €100 in my wallet. Oh and I also got a really reasonable sofa for €11.05. They say that thrift is the new chique!

Dont know what to say really!