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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by acceleratorhams

  1. Same here in Weston-super-Mare and surrounding area. The average salary is about £21,500 and most FTB`s are priced out. I watch the market every day and it is definitely going down!
  2. Where I live [south-West] prices are are definitely falling. Given that interest rates will be up from next year, unemployment will be higher and taxes will have to go up, the crash will take several more years to play out. In my view it will bottom in 2011/2012.
  3. Hi Scared, I`ve rented in both the Rozel and Knightstone Island and they are probably your best bet on the seafront. They are secure, soundproofed and with parking space. The Rozel is very handy for my local the Claremont Vaults! A friendly pub with a cracking Sunday lunch about 50 yards away! Hams
  4. Me too. We are in buying season and this is to be expected. The bottom will be in around 2012 and I`m staying in cash!!!!!!!
  5. Definitely more coming on the market around here [Weston-s-M]. Particularly noticed this in the last few weeks as they start to get worried that if they haven`t sold by autumn/winter, it`ll be another 10-15% off. The market is split between those who have had their property on the market for 12 months+ [still unrealistic prices] and those coming on now [slightly more realistic although I still won`t be buying].
  6. In fact they`ve just reduced by another £5k to 112,500!
  7. Looked at a one bed flat on Knightstone the other day. It went for £165,000 2 years ago and is now on as a repossession for £117,500. I have heard that quite a few who intended to flip and sell on quickly are getting re-po`d over there.
  8. Excellent post EDM. I agree with your analysis in terms of the approx. timings for this to play out and the % of correction We`ll get the same VI nonsense re green shoots etc at this time next year and the year after. We`ll also get the odd `perverse` increase in prices, probably 2-3 per year in the overall downward trend [like last time]. I feel desperately sorry for anyone suckered in to buying now. When unemployment increases by 50% from where it is today, with the knock on effect of [their] lower spending, drain on everyone else, with the likelihood of higher taxes.....this is only going one way...DDDDOWN! Someone`s pride and joy very soon turns into a prison cell from which there is virtually no escape.
  9. I too have noticed a glut of rental properties coming onto the market in the last month or so. Rental prices where Iive have unquestionably dropped. I went through the last HPC and what happened was that a significant number of people returned to live with parents or moved in with friends. Rents will decrease when a further million + get added to the dole queue. I don`t think that we are at the end of the beginning yet
  10. As the US is about 12-14 months ahead of us in the cycle it will be interesting at this time next year!
  11. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom. Purchases of both new and existing houses dropped 7.6 percent, the biggest decline since January 1989, to an annual rate of 4.43 million, government and industry figures showed today. A 13 percent drop in the median resale price was the most since records began in 1968 and was likely the largest since the 1930s, the National Association of Realtors said. “Housing is still in a freefall,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. The figures were worse than economists had forecast and signal that the battered housing market that led the economy into a recession may be taking another lurch down. Sliding property values mean more Americans will be under water on their mortgages, destroying household wealth and undermining consumers’ purchasing power. President-elect Barack Obama plans an unprecedented economic stimulus to restore growth, and pledged on Dec. 13 to limit foreclosures. One tenth of U.S. families who own a home are in financial distress, Obama said. “We need desperately to get this economy moving,” Vice President-elect Joseph Biden, who is leading the incoming administration’s initiative to bolster the middle class, told reporters before a meeting with Obama’s economic advisers today. Transition officials are “getting very close” to an agreement with lawmakers on the size of the stimulus, Biden said. Below Estimates The Realtors’ figures showed home resales, including condos, fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million, below all but one estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 63 economists. The median resale price dropped to $181,300. Separately, the Commerce Department reported that new- home sales fell 2.9 percent last month to a 17-year low of 407,000. The median sales price declined 11.5 percent from a year earlier to $220,400. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of stocks fell 2.2 percent to 204.97 as of 12:53 p.m. in New York, the fourth straight day of declines. The index is down a third so far this year. The S&P 500 Stock Index, which fell as much as 22 percent in November, was down 0.5 percent today. Buyers Scared Off Last month’s stock market collapse combined with rising unemployment to scare off home buyers, Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, said at a press conference. “The economy was really starting to feel the smack-in-the- face blow from the financial crisis” during November, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. U.S. household wealth already fell in the third quarter by the most on record, Federal Reserve figures showed earlier this month. Net worth for households and non-profit groups decreased by $2.81 trillion, the most since the Fed’s data began in 1952. The number of previously-owned unsold homes on the market at the end of November represented 11.2 months’ worth at the current sales pace, up from 10.3 months’ at the end of the prior month. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 45 percent of last month’s home purchases, Yun said. Regional Breakdown Purchases declined in all regions of the country, led by drops of 12 percent in the Northeast and 10.9 percent in the South. Prices also fell throughout the country, led by a decline of 25.5 percent in the West. Resales account for about 90 percent of the housing market. Sales of existing homes are compiled from contract closings and may reflect contracts signed one or two months earlier. New-home sales, recorded when a contract is signed, are considered by economists to be a more timely barometer. The housing report showed builders succeeded in trimming inventories even faster than new-home sales dropped. The number of new homes for sale fell a record 7 percent to a seasonally adjusted 374,000, the fewest since February 2004. The supply of new homes at the current sales rate dropped to 11.5 months’ worth from 11.8 months the prior month. Resler said today’s figures show the housing market has “not yet seen any of the impact from the drop in mortgage rates.” The Fed on Dec. 16 cut its benchmark interest rate target to a range of zero to 0.25 percent and reiterated it stands ready to expand purchases of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank debt under a program aimed at reducing mortgage costs. That program has helped drive mortgage rates lower. Mortgage Rate The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 5.18 percent in the week ended Dec. 12, the lowest in more than five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s biggest homebuilder, called on the government to provide an economic stimulus for the housing industry. “If government wants to get to the root of the problem they need to fix housing first,” Hovnanian said in a conference call on Dec. 17. Hovnanian, whose company reported a fiscal fourth quarter loss, didn’t specify what type of government intervention he wants in the housing market. To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington [email protected] Chandra in Washington at [email protected]
  12. It is interesting to see how the mainstream predictions of house price reductions have gradually gone from 0% to 5-10% to 15% [current falls] etc with 40% now being frequently talked about. The fact is that the bottom is nowhere in sight. What is going to prop up the market? A further million increase in unemployment? The lack of credit? The bottom is a very long way away.
  13. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00fl0jg I`ll take no credit for this as it was mentioned elsewhere on this site. If you missed the discussion this is the link and it is well worth a listen.
  14. Well done FP. Sound arguments put forward in a professional manner. Totally agree that this `package` will do nothing for the housing market. Indeed it could even extend the correction for a longer period when we are all handcuffed by prolonged and huge taxation.
  15. You can hear this Christmas song playing in Estate Agents offices up and down the land! It also makes a great stocking filler for your BTL friends!
  16. There will be fantastic.......er...... pent up demand next year from the 3 million unemployed!
  17. That`s pretty much my objective/timescales as well. I will just keep a `fluid` eye on the timings in case it starts to look like a Japanese scenario. This time it will be a house owned by me and not the mortgage company!
  18. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5158359.ece Homeowners will have to wait a decade before property prices return to 2007 levels, a leading estate agent said yesterday. Average house prices are tumbling at a rate of £78 a day and are set to fall in total by 16 per cent this year and 11 per cent by the end of 2009, according to a forecast from Savills. This will bring the average value down from £182,080 in December 2007 to £136,123. The London-based agent does not expect the market to show signs of recovery for another two years, with a full rebound to 2007 levels not likely until at least 2018. It cautioned that only buyers with adequate cash will be able to take advantage of cheaper prices in the meantime, because of the lack of availability of mortgage deals. Related Links * First-time buyers may lose race to investors * It could be relatively cheaper to live in an hotel * Lenders offer new tracker mortgages The proportion of cash buyers is set to grow from 25 per cent today to up to 40 per cent by the end of next year, as investors and owner-occupiers who built up equity during times of strong growth use their spare resources to take advantage of better-value properties during the downturn. Meanwhile, first-time buyers will continue to be frozen out of the market until they have managed to save sufficient capital, because of the ongoing mortgage drought for those who do not have a substantial deposit. They are now having to save an average £16,720 to get on the ladder, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Homeowners with big mortgages face similar difficulties because new loans are almost unavailable for those without a large equity stake in the home that they wish to sell. Lucian Cook, director of research at Savills, said: “There will be a bigger differential between the haves and have-nots. The recovery will start with investment from people with equity. First-time buyers will have to spend longer saving up their deposits and will be behind the curve when prices do start to pick up.” Savills said it had revised its forecast downwards because of the severity of the mortgage drought. In November last year, it had forecast that prices would grow by 3 per cent in 2008. Since then, the mortgage market had dried up, causing bigger than expected price falls as buyers struggled to finance their purchases. The housing market has come to a virtual standstill over recent weeks with lenders growing increasingly cautious. Home sales plunged to a new low last month, while Nationwide, Britain's biggest building society, reported that its net mortgage lending had fallen by 70 per cent over the past six months. Estate agents in England and Wales sold an average of only 10.9 properties per firm in the 12 weeks to the beginning of November, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. Savills said it expects prices to “bump around the bottom” during 2010 before gaining momentum in 2011. It added that prime property in Central London would see the sharpest total falls because of its dependence on the City. Prime properties worth £1 million are falling in value by £493 a day. Total declines from peak to trough in the capital are expected to reach 30 per cent, but could be as much as 35 per cent if City job losses exceed expectations, Savills said. The Centre for Economics and Business Research estimates that 62,000 city workers are expected to lose their jobs in the next two years. However, prices in London and the South East are expected to recover earlier than elsewhere, with predictions of a return to the peak by 2014. London rental values are forecast to fall by 7 per cent as a result of falling demand from City workers. Mr Cook said: “Twenty-five per cent falls in house prices will rapidly restore affordability and this, combined with the prospect of cuts in interest rates, will progressively cause the cost of mortgage finance to fall and will set the platform for recovery. The outlook for the economy and continued constraints on accessibility to mortgage finance indicates that this recovery will not gain momentum until 2011.” Savills said it expected the Bank of England base rate to fall to 2 per cent in 2009 before rising to 2.4 per cent in 2010 and hitting 4.4 per cent in 2012. Mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high relative to the Bank of England base rate, even after two cuts of 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points in September and October, as lenders keep their margins high above base rate to shore up their balance sheets. The number of mortgages on the market fell by 15 per cent this week after the latest rate cut, according to Moneyfacts.co.uk. ...................................................... Savills know very well that they desperately need to prices down to start houses selling again!
  19. This is the start of the redundancies as well. I remember it only too well having had to make numerous people redundant from 1989-1996. Today I heard about a flat in my development being sold for 51% of the asking price. I know the case well because a friend of mine offered £392k and then pulled out [losing his deposit] when he realised what was happening. They ended up taking a silly offer.
  20. I rent on Knightstone Island a Redrow development on the sea front. A friend of mine put a £10k deposit on the 3 bed pent house which was up for £392K. When he saw prices on the slide he pulled out and lost the deposit. They re-priced at £352K. Unable to sell they were willing to accept offers. They had one at £200k who was able to proceed in 7 days. They accepted. Many of the others here have been bought by people who were looking to flip them quickly. Oh dear! The HPC proceeds at pace!!!!!!!
  21. Well done FP! The estate agent only seemed to have one `argument`....`it`s a confidence issue`. His argument had absolutely no foundation and it makes my heart bleed that it will probably entice a few young people to enter the market. I hope that the show re-convenes in one year`s time to see who was right. There is no question that it will be FP.
  22. Anyone with Sky can get the programme on channel 973 at 9pm tonight. Hams
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