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nicebuyer

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Posts posted by nicebuyer

  1. I have to say I like articles like this, the more morons these people can encourage to move to London and the South East the more space there will be for the rest of us. I like the idea that many in London seem uncomfortable of leaving the M25 corridor - they can all stay there if you ask me.

    I really really fail to see the attraction of living in London (unless you have a job that will pay you a fortune but even then the downsides would be enough to stop me ever moving there). I have friends there who earn little if any more than I do and their quality of life is far worse - ok they can go to a West End show or two but if they want to meet friends for a drink it takes hours on the tube.

    But the idea that moving millions of extra people to a part of the country where there is not enough water and the worst traffic problems in the UK hardly seems the brightest.

    London can be fantastic. So many fantastic museums, theatre plays, art galleries, attractions, shops. You certainly never run out of stuff to do for all ages. For those a little younger wanting excitement the nightlife is great, bars and clubs everywhere. There's always a real eclectic mix of people wherever you go. This weekend we have a little outing planned with the little one.

    Off to see The Lion King, then after some lunch we're at The Natural History Museum then Hamleys to finish off the day. Next week we'll do the Aquarium and maybe the tower of London.

    You're really never lost for things to do so I have to say that London living can be great. Sure there are downsides but everwhere has those.

  2. Who knows? Personally I think rates will go up in the short term and down in the long term. Possibly back to a mouth watering 4% :) But if you're comfortable paying at today's rate you've got peace of mind for 10 years then go for it. Better than looking at the news everyday wondering whether you'll afford the mortgage once you're out of your two year fixed. Even if rates do go down (depending on the size of your mortgage) you've not lost 'that' much.

  3. Frankly I have no interest in telling you anything about myself. No offense. ;)

    Why so shy? It's a shame. It's nice to know what one's qualification in any given discussion is. If we were discussing tax and you were a tax accountant it would certainly qualify your views/advice a little more and perhaps give them more credence than if, for example, you were a tax exile on the run.

    Anyway, it's irrelevant as you don't seem to be willing to share, so the assumption must be that your main qualification is staying out of the housing market during it's peak years whiling away the days and hoping for a crash whilst everyone else was making money. Now talking down to those that did because secretly, deep down inside, you're a little frustrated and annoyed that you didn't take Kirsty's advice all along. :P Just think, you could be sitting on a beach in Malibu right now rather than asking whether your next 'client' wants to go supersized or not. :P Enjoy your crash at least you'll be able to tell everyone "I told you so" even if you were a little early to the party. :D

    Anyway, thanks for the discussion, it was fun. :)

  4. Great little thread this.... I think the real dilemma for our prospective purchaser is not at what price he should buy at but what price he can get the seller to accept. He has suggested £520k.... many seem to think this is too high for all sorts of reasons... some have suggested £300k some £250k I think some even £100k.... just shows the range of views.... personally I doubt if the seller has it on the market at £630k odd that he'll get them to lower it beyond £500k currently.

    But really it all comes down to this... is it worth £520k to the buyer and will the seller let it go for that.... if either is not a yes then its not going to happen. This states the bleeding obvious..... but then again he's as likely to get it for £300, £350 or even £450 as oil reverting to $10 a barrell anytime soon.... the real debate is buy now at whatever price or continue to stomach renting for another two or three years at which time we'll see where prices will really end up. For many waiting is not what they want to do, they realise prices may fall in the short to medium term but equally they realise that prices will go up again to current levels or further in the longer term.... in the meantime if you are happier owning a home and have the cashflow to finance it then where house prices go short to medium term is really not an issue.

    I do also think its worth remembering that if the current falls do overshoot trend by a significant amount then the boom that will surely follow has a chance of being even bigger and quicker than the one we have just been through, personally I'd prefer a slowdown to trend and then yearly trend increases but I think most of the data supports the view that markets like the one in the UK becasue of supply issues go through phases of boom and bust and will continue to do so until housing supply is normalised.

    Good points and you've hit the nail on the head. Getting the vendor to sell below £500k is highly unlikely and the issue for me has been at what level does the purchase become sensible for both parties. There's been enough of an increase in the value of the property for the vendor to be able to move towards the £500k mark. On my part I'm going to stay in the next house I buy for the long term so very short term losses aren't important. I have the cash and if within the next few years we do decide to move outside of London a little then we would just buy a second home and I'd keep this one for a London pad. Once our little fella grows up a little we'd likely move back into London and then keep the country place as a holiday home. However I don't want to be in a situation where I buy now at a higher price than I should be. The question was to draw opinions from others to see how far off the mark I was with a £520k offer. In the end I made my decision. This kind of property is not going to drop below £400k anytime soon. Even if it does it's not a major issue because again, I'm looking at this from a long term point of view. So I think I could probably get a property like this at just below the £500k mark in the next 12 months. I know the current vendor won't accept less than £600k so I'm happy to wait it out and see what happens. I'm in a pretty good position. I've just rented a lovely place and can jump back into the property market for a family home at any point.

  5. Out of interest Sledgehead, may I ask what it is you do for a living? I'd also be interested to know if you own a house or have done at any point in the last 8 years? I ask for background only, no malice intended. I don't mind opening up about myself, it makes the discussion more interesting when one puts other's opinions into context.

  6. My dear fellow, your professor was right, but he clearly did not explain the concept of the ad hominem fallacy to you, or you weren't listening.

    First of all let me remind you of the subject for debate:

    Property Porn Queen - Has Kirstie Allsopp "puffed up" the property market?

    Central to this is the question of whether she could influence people. Central to this is the question of whether people could ascertain a clear, unbiased and independent view of the market irrespective of her attempts to persuade them of her own view. You held yourself up as an example of one who could and has developed a clear view of the market. In placing your own views as evidence of such clear thought, these views become a legitimate subject of investigation.

    As such my line of debate is quite pertinent to the argument and is in no way a form of debating fallacy.

    Neither is this line of debate specifically directed at you as a person: I haven't the foggiest who you are for one. I have only directed my investigation sand criticisms to that part of your views specifically held up as evidence. This is entirely different from the kind of character assassination typical of ad hominem attacks.

    So, up yours mate, and tell us once more, how it is that one with such unshakeable, precise market views can display the following behaviour:

    Either that or have the good grace to admit that no man can be immune to influence especially when it comes with such an apparent track record and endorsement as that displayed by Allsopp.

    I can't answer the first part of your question, ( statement?), it doesn't make much sense to me but I doubt the point you are trying to make is very important.

    As for the secondary issues of my personal beliefs, actions, statement I believe I have already explained those. There is a difference between investing in property and purchasing property as a family home. I seek no monetary gain from my house purchase. I of course, as I have already explained, would like not to lose money in the longer term but making money from my family home is irrelevant to me. As I say, investing in the property market right now is a stupid thing to do. Buying a property with cash with the aim of living in it and leaving it for my kids is not. Will my next property be worth more than I paid for it in 70 years? Maybe but that's not why I'm buying it. Do you see the difference between an investment and purchase?

    What this has to do with Kirsty being blamed for the ills of the property market I don't know but it might be nice to get back to the topic.

  7. My opinion is that something is likely to happen which will precipitate a calamitous collapse of the worlds major currencies, posibly including the pound. The outcome will result in a radical redistibution of wealth from poor to rich and we may end up living in decidedly unsettled and violent times for a good number of years. Once a currency collapses, confidence collapsing tends to put an end to civilised behaviour amonst the population. Rioting could break out, looting and possible widespread fighting between urban gangs. It won't be pleasant. I would advise leaving the UK for a few months or years while the worst of it blows over.

    Hehehe. Funny guy :);) Sounds like one of those horror films you see every now and then.

  8. I had a similar situation the other day. I was speaking to an EA about renting. She was very nice but obviously had no clue. I thought she was new but wondered why an EA would employ new staff right now so I asked. She said that she'd been with the EA for years but in sales. There's was nothing going on in sales right now so the EA had moved her to lettings because that's the only business they were doing.

  9. LOL! What a surprise. Fancy you, the expert timer being unable to tell us when to buy. Then again, if you had it would only have been hypocritical, given that you TOTALLY HAVEN'T A CLUE what you believe, as demonstrated below. From crystal clear decisons to total confusion

    A mere 3 days between those two statements.

    incidentally, you seem intent on 'having a go'. I'm intrigued as to why you are taking aim at me as opposed to my assertions? A very dear professor of mine once told me that the moment someone starts with argumentum ad hominem they've obviously nothing else to counter with and have lost any argument in which they are participating. Tu quoque might seem clever to you, maybe even to the crowd but I've seen it all before :) If we're going to argue or debate then do so, don't resort to ad hominem attacks.

  10. LOL! What a surprise. Fancy you, the expert timer being unable to tell us when to buy. Then again, if you had it would only have been hypocritical, given that you TOTALLY HAVEN'T A CLUE what you believe, as demonstrated below. From crystal clear decisons to total confusion

    A mere 3 days between those two statements.

    :) First I can tell you when to buy. Anytime between 2000 and 2006. See? Easy.

    As for me looking at purchasing a property, it wouldn't be an investment. It would be a family home. The big difference is that I'm not looking to make money on my next purchase I'm just not planning to make an immediate 2000% loss. I see housing very differently now. It's not about making money anymore, it's about having a nice place for your family to live. I wouldn't dare dream about making money right now from this market.

  11. I may disagree with you on some things and you can be "troll-like" sometimes (ie. poke the bears) but fundamentally I appreciate your challenges to some of the ideas here; it keeps us on our toes and it'a good to have a different perspective around to keep us sharp too!

    Cheers, funnily enough I do agree with much of what HPC stands for, I'm also fed up of high prices, stupid EAs, TV shows that go on and on about every last thing to do with housing etc etc etc. I really just have issues with a few things, one of which is this hatred of Kirsty, she's not all that bad, she's just an easy target and people should think a bit more about who really is at fault and the other bugbear of mine is this glee, unadulterated joy at seeing other people suffer. Schadenfreude is the best word for it. As much as some people have benefited at other's expense during the boom there's no need to rejoice at their pain. I don't want to see people be harmed, lose their houses, have families breaking up and so on.

    Yes they may have been stupid to get into that position but I wish them no ill harm. I get the feeling that a lot of people here really hate those that have benefited, and those that haven't, and enjoy seeing them in difficulty. I don't find that to be a very nice thing.

  12. ....and there's the rub - I do hope no one will dignify this fraccin twerp with a reply.

    Whatever happened to that readily identifiable troll avatar?

    Name calling and insults? Whoops, what have I done to offend? Not how I would respond to someone but each to their own.

    I'd love to know what the issue you have with my comment is? I think it's fair isn't it?

  13. Surely, somebody with your expert timing doesn't leave it all to "hope". You must surely already know where the bottom is. So come on: spill the beans. It would indeed be most valuable information from a man w/ such a superb track record .. or do you only comment retrospectively? ;)

    :) You know as well as i do it's easy to grab and opportunity when the signs are positive. Being accurate about the negative is much more difficult. It always has been.

    Let me give you an example.

    Here are some simple steps to see whether it's a good time to invest in property.

    1. Number of loans available.

    2. Earnings multiples offered

    3. The amount of estate agent advertising

    4. The amount of newly formed EAs

    5. The amount of investment by EAs in new offices

    6. The number sold signs in the street

    7. The number of completions according to the LR

    8. The month by month increase in price of average properties

    9. Percentage increases in specific areas

    10. Interest rate levels - BOE minutes

    11. IFA availability vs number of IFAs

    12. Solicitor availability vs number of solicitors

    13. Inflation levels

    14. Employment levels

    15. City bonus levels

    I could go on but you get the idea. I think what made me realise I need to be investing every last penny into property was when I was offered 6x joint salary, 95% mortgage at 3.6% interest, fixed for 24 months. That was with Natwest. Around about 2002 I think it was. I couldn't find a solicitor to act for me, ended up paying about £1400 to one for just a purchase. I saw the neighbour's property make £150k in 7 months. I was looking at a number of signs and it was pretty obvious investing was a good idea.

    Now comes the difficult bit. When to sell, what are the signs one should be more careful? Human nature makes you want to believe the dream will never end. but you must think rationally. So I started seeing interest rates go up, inflation issues, basically a reverse of many of the things mentioned above. At what point do you get out? that's a tough decision. I got out finally last month.

    As you can see, predicting a rise and fall is not that difficult especially when you're in the middle of it! Knowing when we're at the peak or trough is a totally different question. As I'm sure you well know.

    It is easy to know when your property is worth a lot.It;s easy to see that demand is high. the opposite is also true. Knowing when you have reached the top or bottom is impossible.

  14. The fact of the matter is you have tied yourself in knots.

    You admit that property was a good investment and became a bad one. Kirsty has at no declared property a bad investment. On the contrary she continued to ramp. Furthermore, by your own admission this would have influence on viewers.

    Moreover many will have taken her self elevation to the rank of "expert" at face value, given, as you point out, that she had been RIGHT for so long. That this was merely coincidence would have become an increasingly difficult proposition to maintain, given the size of her "fanbase" and apparent track record.

    You claim it was "silly" to not be involved in the bubble, but claim it is now silly to be involved. Kirsty on the other hand declares property is for the long term. You advocate speculation. Others maintain now is a great tim eto bottom fish.

    You seem to suggest that determining which of these views is the correct one is somehow easy. This is a ludicrous statement that flies in the face of even a casual examination of the success rate of investment professionals' track records. Indeed at any point in time the market is always full of competing opinions. The avergae person simply has neither the resources or tim eto even start to unravel the tre historic picture, far less determine the future.

    Moreover, in your wonderful analysis of the two kinds of people criticising Kirsty, you missed out the most obvious and most vociferous of the lot: people like me, who see the last ten years as a lost opportunity. So you and a few mates of yours have become richer than a few others. Well-a-whoopee-doo. Forgive me for sounding underwhelmed. In the meantime this stupid boom has devalued the currency, turned the population into speculators w/o a cause, seen many question the value of education (Sugar : "just teach them to buy an apple for a pound ...") and produced nothing to underpin our future economic growth.

    I too believe people must take more responsibility for their own behaviour, but this needs to start at the top w/ the opinion formers - the so called "experts". Kirsty would once have been proud to sport that title. Now she must acknowledge her influence and its terrible consequences.

    1. Yes, property was a good investment and became a not so good one. (I still don't think it's necessarily bad, there are many issues to consider)

    2. No, I do not give her the rank of expert because she was right for so long. I was also right but am no expert. I like many others just happened to have a bit of common sense and half a brain. When 5 people come around to view my property and I get two fighting to get it and ending up above asking price I don't think it's too much to assume that the market is good. When interest rates were low, when loans were easy to get, when flats were staying on the market for 24 hours before being purchased, when you couldn't get hold of an IFA or a solicitor, it doesn't take much expertise to realise the market is moving nicely thank you very much.

    3. It was silly not to be involved in the bubble if you could afford it.

    4. It is silly now if you don't know exactly what you are doing. It's not a time for amateurs like me or you to be investing.

    5. I do not advocate speculation, not at this moment in time. That would be ridiculous. Again, you better know what it is you're doing.

    6. I have no problem with any of the things you say in terms the results of the boom. I think you're off on some aspects but that's another discussion completely. Kirsty had influence. There's no doubt about it. I have an issue with people that single her out. above all others. Personally I find it strange that C4 are not at the top of the pile, just behind banks, IFAs, stupid people. IMO Kirsty is behind an awful lot of people in the queue for blame. She's just an easy target for simple people.

  15. I would like to think this was just amusing trolling but I seriously think you believe this BS you are peddling.

    .

    Given the level of the market and the number of people priced out of ownership even on median to high level

    incomes I think even someone of your obviously limited intelectual stature would admit that the argument

    above is indefensible.

    .

    ST

    No I don't believe it :) I'm sure there's something in the argument, I wonder how many people hoping for an HPC actually work for a living/aren't on benefits/finished school/got themselves a degree? No point in looking into that now, anyway I did all of those things and am hoping for a little HPC. Just enough to help the poor sods that got left behind and not too much to harm those that were stupid enough to get themselves into silly situations with NE etc.

    I was once again being glib about the whole thing. I find is amusing that people insist on blaming some woman off the telly for other people's stupidity.

    P.s you speeled intellectual wrong innit. ;)

  16. Sir, I think you underestimate the powers of advertising and media over the vast majority of people.

    How many times in your life have you bought the tesco cola over coca cola? Surely we both know that they are exactly the same thing, bar advertising.

    I agree on the direct responsibility being solely of those who make the purchase. However, there was only one voice telling them what to do.

    I know exactly what affect advertising can have, I spend enough on it each year. Yes, I am myself swayed by it. Without getting too technical there are levels at which good marketing ceases to have an effect. As a very obvious example, no matter which celebrity I had advertising cyanide, how much I spent marketing it, how pretty the bottle is that I put it in I would find it very difficult to convince you it was something you should feed your child.

    Spending your life savings on a house and putting your family at risk because Kirsty said it was a good thing is nonsense. As for there being only one voice, you know as much as I do that that certainly isn't true.

  17. schuey may think he/she is just being level headed and reasonable by seeking to apologise for Allsopp's behaviour, but the evidence is there for all to see.

    He :)

    Allsopp understood she was PERSUADING people, and understood what the message was. Such vigourous defence in the face of overwhelming evidence by schuey makes me wonder just what his/her motives might be.

    His :) Persuading people that property was a good investment? I'll say it once more, IT WAS A GOOD INVESTMENT.

    My motives are simple. I'm fed up with people blaming others for their own mistakes. I see it every day and enough is enough. It seems to me that there are two kinds of people singling out Kirsty Allsop

    1. The person that lost out because they bought a house they couldn't afford

    2. The person that couldn't afford a house because house prices were so high

    To the first, YOU took out a mortgage you couldn't afford. YOU were to stupid to seek independent financial advice and opinion. YOU put your life and that of your family at risk because you watched a TV show. YOU signed the papers to buy the house. YOU are responsible. Grow some and admit it. The only way to recover from this is to realise that YOU are to blame.

    To the second, if you'd have worked a little harder at school and did your homework rather than running about with friends vandalising property then perhaps you might have been able to afford to buy a house and wouldn't be hoping for an HPC.

    Blame Kirsty all you like. We obviously disagree on the notion of responsibility and who should bear the brunt of the blame. I think people are responsible for their own actions and we should demand that they take responsibility for it.

  18. And I am reminded of the exact opposite. This was not a ladder with a warning. It wasn't even a ladder w/o markings. I was a ladder with a bold assertion on the bottom rung: "jump on and climb as quickly as you can : there is no top!".

    And anyone that follows those instructions and falls off the top and dies only has themselves to blame. "Could you not see the end of the ladder? You didn't see the drop?" again, how far do we go in absolving the individual of blame, especially when their actions were insanely stupid?

    "You mean you watched the telly and a TV show said that property was a good idea and you didn't think to research this before spending half a million pounds you didn't have?"

    :)

    Yes, all Kirsty's fault. :)

  19. So where were the warnings of "property many go up or down and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose," etc? By your reasoning there is no such thing as bad financial advice.

    Well that's a very different proposition isn't it? It seems to me that the people appearing on the show had made their decision to borrow before even meeting Phil and Kirsty. Wasn't the idea that a person was looking to buy a house, told Phil and Kirsty how much they could spend and then they looked for a property for them? In fact didn't most of the properties they were shown come in under the price Kirsty and Phil were initially given? Just last week I saw a re-run where they advised that the cheaper house would be the better investment.

    It is not their job to become financial advisers to those buying houses for the rest of their lives. If you asked me for advice on which technology vendor to invest in right now I could tell you and I think you'd have a good chance of making some money. If you did but that vendor went bust in 2015 is it my fault that you lost your money? Isn't it a given that investing your money comes with a risk? If not then you shouldn't really be investing it at all. What did you expect Phil and Kirsty to do? Vet stupid people before they were allowed to watch the show?

    I think expecting people to have a little bit of common sense is not unreasonable. If you lived your life working towards the lowest common denominator this country would grind to a halt.

    It reminds me of going to B&Q and buying a ladder. Know what it said on the top step?

    "WARNING, DO NOT GO FURTHER, DANGER OF INJURY, LAST STEP."

    Or the bottle of sleeping tablets which has a big warning label saying:

    "WARNING, CAN CAUSE DROWSINESS"

    Please, let's take some responsibility for our actions and stop this horrible blame culture we seem to have developed over the past few years. Nex tthing we know I'll be suing salt companies because their salt made me thirsty and the label on the bottle didn't warn me of this.

  20. I also didn't necessarily state that you were being nasty to me - I was talking about other threads in which lots of people seem to take a perverse pleasure in the misery of others - the posting of threads on Singing Pig, MSE etc as an example.

    I said this in one of my first posts arriving here. I would love to see the market fall a little more for my own gains but I also have empathy with the millions of people that will suffer as a result. There's a balance. In some ways wanting the market to fall so that you can buy property cheaply is no different to those wanting the market to increase so they can make money selling it.

    As I said before, there's a lot of schadenfreude about here. Taking pleasure in seeing other people fail gives a good insight into the kind of person you are. Whenever I see people laughing at other's misfortune I always take a little note and think to myself that it might well bite you in the ass some day.

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