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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by nicebuyer

  1. I don't really understand what all the fuss is about. You pays your money and takes your choice.

    I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with BTL, just like I don't think there's anything inherently okay with STR.

    I didn't STR out of the goodness of my heart, and it may be that the family who bought my house may have worries about negative equity, or what have you, in the months and years to come. There may be more flattering-sounding motives that I could come up with for why I STR'd, but greed is probably as good as anything else to explain it.

    Any kind of speculation at all has winners and losers, and if we're going to write off BTLers as the scum of the earth, then I don't quite know why we shouldn't write off any kind of speculative activity in the same breath. Maybe you would... and maybe you'd be right to do so. But I wouldn't necessarily consider BTLers to be any better or worse than any other speculator.

    Some around here may PERSONALLY be annoyed by BTLers because they have been priced out of the housing market in part by their activities, or because their horrible landlord is BTL 'scum', or because (perhaps through sheer luck of timing) some have made a shed-load of cash in the last ten years whereas others may have missed that chance, but I don't know why BTLers are particularly in the firing line for so much bile.

    They're just playing the game along with most other speculators.

    Maybe I'm missing something... ;)

    I totally agree with you. Good points well made.

  2. Who would need a 4+ times mortgage if they had a 50-80% deposit. this implies a very low salary, or a very expensive house with a mamouth deposit to boot. It difficult to envisage a scenario where this is would be the case. Just buy a cheaper house and have no mortgage.

    I agree, it's funny what banks are willing to lend :) I was just using it as an example that banks are still willing to lend multiples in excess of 4x single. It certainly makes sense to buy a house outright although in certain situations a small mortgage of 20% is preferable.

  3. So why don't you view a few props make a few offers 10%-20% below asking, borrow a few bucks...why wait when you can jump in now before the rest do? :rolleyes:

    I'm already making offers at 10%-20% below asking. None are being accepted. It'll happen soon enough.

    yawn. and 6 months ago trolls like this were saying '10% falls will never happen'... 3 months ago it was '20% falls will never happen...' now its '65% falls will never happen...'

    There's a big difference between an easily recoverable 10% and a devastating 65%. I'm not saying it will never happen, I'm saying it's highly unlikely. Sure some places will see drops of that size but 65% drops nationally? I doubt it.

    When do you think rates will come down. Do you mean mortgage rates or the BOE base rate ?


    Which banks are back to silly lending at lower rates and higher multiples please ? They have neither access to term funding nor the securitisation markets which are closed.

    I can get 4+ times multiple from two banks right now, one being A&L. If I were to have a 50%-80% deposit it's even higher and at rates below 5.9%.

    I also know a little about the securitization markets and funding access, no lectures please :)

    Nostradamus had spoken

    :) It's just about being sensible when it comes to predictions. Anyone can predict anything. I use what I know to make an educated guess. Tell me, upon what qualifications do you make your predictions? I'd be very interested??? Especially if you deem them to be more valid than my own.

  4. To be fair to the guy he's totally correct about the 65% figure. A lot of people here are living in dreamland and quoting Japan as 'evidence' for why it could happen here. We will see another 10%-20% in falls, but not in all areas. My guess would be for another 10% drop with a slowdown due to confidence for 12 months. The moment rates come down and we have a couple of months of good news the EAs will be inundated with would be buyers. The banks are already back to silly lending at lower rates + higher multiples.

  5. As you can't explain this 8k per year, this may or may not be a helpful suggestion... Would it be secured if you bought the cheapest bedsit you could find? If so, spend as little as possible on some random property so you can secure the cash?

    But he also wants somewhere to live. So this kills two bids with one stone.

    Good luck fella, hope it all works out.

  6. Of course reduce the offer. Try it. If it doesn't work then buy at the £170k price. I bought a car today, the sales manager told me there was no chance in hell I would get a larger discount than he was offering me. That was three days ago and after at least 5 calls to me telling me I should come in and buy as he had offered me the best price. I got another £1k off today. So try your luck, bluff, double bluff but ultimately, if you really like it then don't let it slip away for a few quid. Especially as you have a nice £8k coming in each year. (That's another reason not to worry about prices dropping too much as you're somewhat safeguarded by this income stream. Even another 40% drop wouldn't hurt too much over a longer term period.)

  7. The deal was 2.0% + VAT including HIP, which is about £400+VAT, so ended up paying around 1.8%+VAT, not very competitive, and yes a bit of a rip off! (Though they did offer 1.7% w/o HIP)

    All agents had pretty much come up with the same commission rate, and blamed lack of sales on the need to raise rates above those of last year. :(

    But on the flip side, considering that during a time of plenty of properties and few buyers, you really want to be giving the agent extra incentive to sell your flat and not one of the others on his books!

    - So they had vested interest since they had forked out £400+ upfront for HIP

    - In the likely event of no buyers, there was no cash lost by vendor

    - Their commission was greater than other properties on their books, so surely more incentive for them?

    Either way, it's done now, and rather pay the agent over the odds than have it going stale on the market still waiting for a buyer!

    I suppose it's okay that they paid for the HIP up front. Still, very pricey and a HIP doesn't cost £400 +VAT. We used these guys, http://www.firsthips.com/ this was £350 inc VAT. Very good actually as they delivered the whole thing online to ourselves, the EA and the solicitors.

    On the % rates, we looked around and no one was that high, not even Foxtons. But done is done and I guess it doesn't matter as the place is sold :)

  8. Eh? At the moment house are not selling in any great numbers. Why is this a problem?

    If people wish to sell their house they will have to lower prices. Why is this a problem?

    There's no problem with that at all. It becomes a problem if the vast majority of the country who own property find themselves in financial difficulty because of it.

    I actually tend to agree with what you're saying. I think a correction is required. But this has to be a controlled correction, as far as it can be. The govt needs to make sure we don't see 70% drops with people's wealth wiped out. That has implications for the wider economy. Implications that harm not just home owners but the rest who have not stretched themselves.

  9. Why would a fall in house prices make the majority of people lose their homes, savings and livelihoods and go bankrupt?

    It doesn't make any sense

    A fall in prices isn't a major issue. A sharp drop of 50%-70% along with the problems that go with it will. Were already seeing people losing their homes, not being able to afford to remortgage, people who have ploughed their life savings into their houses. Am I missing something, isn't this obvious?

  10. "I'm getting on with the job and I think it's important that in difficult economic circumstances we take the right decisions for the future to get fuel prices down, to get food prices down, to make sure we get the housing market moving..."

    Taking the quote a point at a time:

    "to get fuel prices down" is GB saying that fuel is becoming prohibitively expensive for the average Joe and he wants to find ways to bring the price back down to affordable levels.

    "to get food prices down" is GB saying, likewise, that food is becoming prohibitively expensive for the average Joe and he wants to find ways to bring the prices back down to affordable levels.

    "to make sure we get the housing market moving..." is GB saying that he couldn't give 2 hoots that houses are more unaffordable than they have ever been for the average Joe and he wants to find ways to ensure that things stay that way.

    Now, of the 3 subjects he tackles, can anyone spot the odd one out?

    The 3 basic necessities of human life are food, heat and shelter and yet, while GB seemingly wants to ensure the food and heat remain something that we all have ready access to, his approach to shelter is not to ensure that it remains affordable for all, rather it is to use the warped trading of it to prop up the economy for as long as it can be sustained.

    Oh dear, I missed this bit, very funny.

    1. Food

    2. Heat

    3. Shelter

    You are correct. We need those three things.

    If food prices increase to a level where people cannot afford them what happens?

    If fuel prices increase to a level where people cannot afford them what happens?

    You see Gordon needs to make sure that we can feed people. He needs to make sure people don't die of the cold.

    If house prices increase to a level where people cannot afford them what happens?

    Yup, you guessed it, unlike food and heat, people can...rent! Bingo! I'd like to see you renting food or fuel. You see, if house prices are high then many people benefit from that. Those that don't can do what people like you and me do. We rent a nice place. Unfortunately I can't rent food to keep my family fed. So is it any wonder that Big G wants to get fuel and food prices down and the market moving? Much better moving than crashing.

  11. Equilibrium.

    20 years ago a teacher could afford a reasonable house on their salary in their locale. Now a teacher needs another teachers salary and £50k in savings to manage this. (I am not a teacher).

    I'm not a teacher, my friend is, she teaches classics. She owns a house and didn't have £50k in savings. She does very nicely. Anyway, things cost more today than in the past, there's more demand for housing today, of course prices will increase. There are more people in total and more people wanting to own their own house, demand has gone up, what do you expect to happen to prices?

  12. Why is it the government's responsibility to help the 80% of stupid feckless people rather than the 20% disadvantaged in recent years? Propping up an idiotic system in order to save the economy is ludicrous. It's broken. The fix is collapsing house prices. People will lose out. That's life. The Government's responsibility is to provide a safety net for people in difficulty not to bail out an entire industry for political expediency.

    Because it will affect the other 20% just as much. I'm not saying house prices shouldn't be corrected just that we need to avoid a full scale crash. I know it sounds fun wishing for banks to fail, house prices to drop 50%, deflation, inflation, interest rate soars but we need to be careful because there is a wider implication nevermind the real human cost we'll see.

  13. you really dont get it do you...what is your reason for being here? most of us can pay for our houses cash outright but we were not stupid enough to do so when we knew the market was not sustainable..

    in doing so i have saved myself 45k so far and thats just before all the fun starts.

    so dont come on here as if you are some genius because you have bought while the sensible ones have not but are now reaping the rewards.

    we have a name for people like you were i live and they are called big time charlies...

    i am not scared of losing my job because i dont have one to lose...

    Why am I here? I don't know anymore, this place is a bit like a car crash you just can't take your eyes off. Most of you can pay for houses in cash, outright? Really? I very much doubt that. But if I'm wrong then I'm surprised. As for choosing not to buy houses for cash because you didn't 'want' to because the market was 'unsustainable', crikey you've missed the boat. If you'd have given me your £500k cash (which you have to buy your house outright) just 3 years ago I'd have turned it into £1m. So much for saving £45k. How long has this site been up? I imagine it has to take a lot of blame for people losing millions by not investing over the past 5 years.

    I'd don't come on here as a genius because I've 'bought' a house. I come here as an interested party albeit not quite as apocalyptic as most seen in there here parts.

  14. Why would they lose their homes, savings and livelihoods if houses return to their historical average of 3-4 times average salary? (Please answer this questions specifically)

    We're already seeing people losing their homes, having to declare bankrupcy, living on the streets because house prices are falling. A full on crash would have dire consequences for many many people.

    I'm not asking them to help me. I'm simply asking them not to hinder me by meddling with a market that is at unprecedented high levels. All I want them to do is let the market be free and open without political interference. I do not, repeat not, want the Government's help.

    There's no such thing as a market free of political interference. Even if there was you wouldn't want one.

    Who would be harmed if it collapsed? How would they be harmed? (Again, please explicitly answer these questions)

    See above.

    My job is very safe, thanks. But I don't see why houses returning to normal levels should result in mass unemployment. We are entering into a period of increased unemployment now anyway, the direct result of our economy having gone to ratshit, but that's no justification for keeping the bubble inflated.

    If house prices dropped by 50% you don't think there would be any consequences to employment levels? :) hehe

    Only £180k? Only?

    This country's gone barking mad. By the time you've knocked off £40k for materials and labour, where is the other £140k of 'value' in that house? A plot of land the size of a postage stamp? You are confusing affordability with value. I probably could afford to buy that house if I really stretched myself but who benefits from the £140k premium that I'd be paying, for a poxy plot of land too small to swing a cat on? The banks. A few gamblers who speculated on property rather than the stock market. And that's about it.

    The same could be said for any item, don't be so silly. You paid much more for the car you drive than it cost to make. For the buggy your kids are in, for pretty much everything you own.

    Honestly, stop complaining and get on with your life. Save up and buy a house if you want, rent if you don't. It's your decision and not the government's responsibility to make life work out perfectly for you. I, like the vast majority of this country, am more than happy with the govt stepping in to stop a housing crash. What are home ownership levels again? I'm guessing about 80% but I could be wrong. Why shouldn't the govt help these 80%? I'd rather help them than you. If 80% of the country loses 50% of their house value we could all be in for a nasty ride.

  15. Just very quickly, don't the majority of the people in this country own their own homes or at least live in homes owned by a relative? If this were to be the case then isn't it in the country's best interest for the government to make sure prices stay at a level where the country majority don't lose their homes, savings and livelihoods and go bankrupt? (Of course that argument is blown out of the water if I'm wrong about my figures) :)

    Prices may be too high for you but they're not for me. I can buy if I want. Why should the government help you at the expense of those that can afford to buy and have already bought like me? There are millions that would be harmed if the Govt let the whole thing collapse. Indeed if it did all collapse you yourself would feel the heat as much as anyone else, you may have a job now but if the housing market collapses then who's to say you could scrape together 10p to buy all that cheap lovely property?

    Anyway, I'm surprised you can't afford to buy a house. This one: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-22001711.rsp is only £180k. You could probably nab it for £150k. 10% deposit is £15k. A few quid for conveyancing etc would take that to £20k. That leaves a £130k mortgage, £35k wage and you're there. What's to moan about? Perfectly affordable. Monthly repayments about £900. Simple.

  16. You could split the show into three parts, none were particularly well linked albeit for the fact that he wanted a house for hos family.

    Part 1: I cannot afford a house.

    Actually, he could afford a place to live, he was just looking in the wrong places and asking too much of his money. Not everyone can afford a three bedroom house in West London, it's always been like that. Even when prices were lower there were always people in his situation, those that didn't have a deposit or earnings to enable a purchase. As for his search, he could have easily found somewhere nice, I know of a nice place 5 minutes from where I am in SW London that's within his budget. In any case, this part of the show was obviously tongue in cheek. He was, by his 'need' to buy a property creating the very market that supposedly stops him from getting on the ladder. My advbice to someone like him, rent until you get a better job that pays enoguh for you to buy in the nicest parts of London.

    Part 2: Council property

    This is a well known problem but not much can be done about it. We could sit and talk about this all day, the fact is there should be more housing for those that need it. One thing that he didn't mention was that there is oodles of council property available, just in different parts of the country. Hull's Bransholme estate has loads of empty houses, if I remember correctly this was noticed and many people from London moved there to take advantage.

    Part 3: Empty property

    Another well known problem, millions of empty homes lying around the country, no one in them. I used to work on a Shelter campaign many years ago and spent a lot of time on this issue. Unfortunately nothing happened then and no solution has been found since. It's not only local authority housing either. There's so much unclaimed property and property owned by people that just never use it. A disgrace really. With the homeless problems we have this is a problem we need to solve.

  17. I just noticed, £6k for a £250k flat???? You were mugged!!!!! That's over 2%. I've not paid that much ever. Even Foxtons don't take that much, the highest I've ever paid is 1.5%. I just sold at £470k in London and paid £4k flat.

  18. A quick question for those in the know about auctions; I've never been to one or thought about buying property through them, it sounds like a nice idea. However all the ones listed with this particular auction are generally horrific, the kind of place you wouldn't want your ex wife to live :) No wonder no one wants to buy them

    So, where would one find auctions with decent property, do these exist? Does good property go up for auction? Or is it sold quickly through the agent?

    I'd be seriously interested in going to a few auctions if I could find any stocking mid-high market property.

  19. Okay let's for a moment, ignoring the other issues that have distracted us, go back to what you originally said:

    "For me to buy a humble 3-bed semi for my young family in Emerson's Green today, I would have to have a deposit of ~£20k plus stamp duty and other associated costs taking me close to £30k. I would then need to saddle myself with a loan equal to 5 times my annual salary. I simply couldn't afford the repayments on such a mortgage - and that is at today's interest rates, let alone what they will be in a year's time when Mervyn & Co increase them to try to check the rapidly climbing inflation."

    My reaction to that, if I were your MP (privately of course) would be Boof**king hoo. I'm sorry but if you can't afford it then don't buy it. Yes housing is essential but the point, which you conveniently keep skirting, is that owning said housing is not.

    There are many things that would make me more comfortable, more socially acceptable, would make life nicer for my child but alas I cannot afford to pay for them.

    My little fella is two weeks old. I have just started saving for him to go to the school I attended. Will I have enough by the time he needs to go? Hopefully but if not but that's life, I will try to afford the best for myself and my family but if I can't then I accept that fact. Schooling is essential after all. I could send him to the local school but I know as well as everyone else he will be in a much better position if he goes to a private school. It shouldn't be that way but it is. If you ask me I would think it more beneficial for him to attend a good school than for him to be in a house I own rather than one that is rented.

    I'm happy renting right now, why can't you be? The place is okay, not brilliant by anyone's standards. If I thought for one moment I was harming my child by staying here I'd be out in a flash. The fact is like me, he doesn't care where he lives as long as mum and dad are around. I grew up in a high rise block, I don't think I knew what a garden was until I was 11 years old. I do remember the curtains that my mum bought getting stolen within a few days of going up. The point is none of it mattered. I had no notion of house ownership vs renting. Let's be honest, you want a house but can't afford it. That annoys you. Save up, wait to see what happens and buy the house. If not then be happy you've got a roof over your head. Many people don't.

    P.s I'm going to miss this place when I go back to work. Its a lot of fun if a little morbid.

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