Steve___

You are a true bear! Just have to wait until 2010 now to see how it goes ... hmm ... you're right this is boring!

sorry, that was sposed to be rhetorical rather than aimed at you personally. Just have been curious today to see if I could find anyone who predicts big house price falls and is willing to bet on it. Turns out I can't so far ...

Ok, check out spreadfair.com - you don't need to pick a range, you can just pick up or down and you can bet out as far as December 2010. It is based on the Halifax figures however so you're right on that point - have I found the first bear who's willing to back his chat?

Yup, have to agree, that makes sense ... how much did you bet?

Ah, well you may be interested then to know the spreadbetting view is for an 8% fall between now and December 2010, so plenty of easy money for you there if you want it and you don't have to gamble the falls will be next year! Seriously though, I'm not trying to badger anyone into betting, but there are a lot of seriously bearish people on this site (I'm not saying you btw) who make the most bullish VIs look realistic. I personally think 8% over 3 years sounds about right ... and who has been correct most often about general elections? The pundits, the pollsters or the bookies? There's a reason for that!

... but that's the point I'm afraid. A lot of people in this article have "put their money where their mouth is" and the consensus opinion is there will be a 7% fall next year. You expect larger falls but won't back your view. Who should an impartial observer believe?

1. Not sure about these particular derivatives, but you can bet on the Halifax House Price Index on spreadfair.com 2. Well you can bet either way, but this article says 7% is pretty much the expected value, so you have to bet growth will be more or less than this number 3. I think you're just stuck with that!

well I'm in the could-buy-but-haven't FTB camp myself, but I think the 7% drop here and the 5% drop that looks like the consensus on the spreadbetting sites is about right so I can't take a further position on it, and much as I'd like prices to tank massively I just don't think they will. Having STR or delayed FTB can show that you are genuinely bearish, but it says nothing about whether you genuinely believe a huge fall is coming If I genuinely thought prices were a cert to drop 20%+ in 08 then the odds that are available would be irresistible, and so I'd be interested to have the conversation that goes: Uber bear: Prices are going to drop 50%, guaranteed Me: Alright, put your money where you mouth is. Forget gold, stick a few grand on prices to fall and you'll have a bigger deposit when they do

I guess it just means they want a quick sale - got any examples?

yeah, this is the most interesting thing that's appeared on this forum for ages - opinions are free and anybody can come on here or print in a newspaper there'll be 50% falls or 10% HPI for the next 5 years or whatever, but when people put their money where their mouth is it's a lot more credible - money talks as they say! I actually tried to start a topic on this challenging the uber bears to show the courage of their convictions and bet on big house market falls but in retrospect it would have looked like trolling so never made it onto the forum

That spreadfair site is great. If you think the market is going to fall more than 5% next year you could make a stack of money - I wonder if any of the uber bears here are willing to put their money where their mouth is?

The thing is you wouldn't need to expect a 30% fall in the property market to think barratt was worth 50% less. Agree though it would be interesting to see the equity analyst reports on these companies to see what kind of house price falls they have anticipated

Just a quick note to say thanks for putting your time into this thread 3 little pigs, and in particular for bringing www.londonpropertywatch.co.uk to my attention

it's not necessarily pessimism tho is it? I don't own a flat and would like to buy one - I'm very optimistic in a couple of years I'll be able to afford one!

Is my maths screwed up or isn't £150 per sq/ft much cheaper than residential rents?