

Steve___
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City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
You are a true bear! Just have to wait until 2010 now to see how it goes ... hmm ... you're right this is boring! -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
sorry, that was sposed to be rhetorical rather than aimed at you personally. Just have been curious today to see if I could find anyone who predicts big house price falls and is willing to bet on it. Turns out I can't so far ... -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
Ok, check out spreadfair.com - you don't need to pick a range, you can just pick up or down and you can bet out as far as December 2010. It is based on the Halifax figures however so you're right on that point - have I found the first bear who's willing to back his chat? -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
Yup, have to agree, that makes sense ... how much did you bet? -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
Ah, well you may be interested then to know the spreadbetting view is for an 8% fall between now and December 2010, so plenty of easy money for you there if you want it and you don't have to gamble the falls will be next year! Seriously though, I'm not trying to badger anyone into betting, but there are a lot of seriously bearish people on this site (I'm not saying you btw) who make the most bullish VIs look realistic. I personally think 8% over 3 years sounds about right ... and who has been correct most often about general elections? The pundits, the pollsters or the bookies? There's a reason for that! -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
... but that's the point I'm afraid. A lot of people in this article have "put their money where their mouth is" and the consensus opinion is there will be a 7% fall next year. You expect larger falls but won't back your view. Who should an impartial observer believe? -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
1. Not sure about these particular derivatives, but you can bet on the Halifax House Price Index on spreadfair.com 2. Well you can bet either way, but this article says 7% is pretty much the expected value, so you have to bet growth will be more or less than this number 3. I think you're just stuck with that! -
City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
well I'm in the could-buy-but-haven't FTB camp myself, but I think the 7% drop here and the 5% drop that looks like the consensus on the spreadbetting sites is about right so I can't take a further position on it, and much as I'd like prices to tank massively I just don't think they will. Having STR or delayed FTB can show that you are genuinely bearish, but it says nothing about whether you genuinely believe a huge fall is coming If I genuinely thought prices were a cert to drop 20%+ in 08 then the odds that are available would be irresistible, and so I'd be interested to have the conversation that goes: Uber bear: Prices are going to drop 50%, guaranteed Me: Alright, put your money where you mouth is. Forget gold, stick a few grand on prices to fall and you'll have a bigger deposit when they do -
I guess it just means they want a quick sale - got any examples?
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City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to LazyDay's topic in House prices and the economy
yeah, this is the most interesting thing that's appeared on this forum for ages - opinions are free and anybody can come on here or print in a newspaper there'll be 50% falls or 10% HPI for the next 5 years or whatever, but when people put their money where their mouth is it's a lot more credible - money talks as they say! I actually tried to start a topic on this challenging the uber bears to show the courage of their convictions and bet on big house market falls but in retrospect it would have looked like trolling so never made it onto the forum -
Ft: City Bets On 7% Fall In House Prices
Steve___ replied to BTLlivingthedream's topic in House prices and the economy
That spreadfair site is great. If you think the market is going to fall more than 5% next year you could make a stack of money - I wonder if any of the uber bears here are willing to put their money where their mouth is? -
Just a quick note to say thanks for putting your time into this thread 3 little pigs, and in particular for bringing www.londonpropertywatch.co.uk to my attention
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Uber Bears Have A Heightened Sense Of Fear
Steve___ replied to dogbox's topic in House prices and the economy
it's not necessarily pessimism tho is it? I don't own a flat and would like to buy one - I'm very optimistic in a couple of years I'll be able to afford one! -
London Has World's Priciest Offices
Steve___ replied to Realistbear's topic in House prices and the economy
Is my maths screwed up or isn't £150 per sq/ft much cheaper than residential rents?