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House Price Crash Forum


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About Matt

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  1. I made this point on another thread and was called a "leftie loser"!
  2. It certainly didn't stop people buying wines and penny blacks though did it! Can't wait to see the prices of these tumble.
  3. Blimey, you know everything, I'll have to listen to you more often. Forget my crystal ball, here's TTRTR.
  4. This guy's a joke. How can first time buyers at only 11% be the 'long run average'. If he really means prices will fall by 35% to their long run average then I'll take it back.
  5. Interesting point. I'd like to know why prices are lower elsewhere. One possible contributory reason - fewer full time students living away from home therefore fewer BTLers?
  6. Perhaps, and a stronger economy means interest rates are only going to go one way. (up, that is, in case you didn't know)
  7. Hmm, low interest rates really helped in Germany and Japan eh?
  8. Apollo - your optimism is astonishing. People are going bankrupt because they have huge debts they can not pay off. I personally know two people who have gone bankrupt. One had 15K in debts and no job, another had 30K to pay off even after selling her house to clear the rest of her debt. There was no choice other than going bankrupt, new rules or not. And a decline on the high street is going to mean job losses, which will affect everyone in time. Can't you see it?
  9. Captial growth in a falling market? Still don't get it. There's no point in buying to let unless you're paying off the mortgage and even with interest only mortgages prices are sitll well overvalued.
  10. Well, must mean it's going to carry on going up forever.
  11. Hmm, all this money going into commercial property reminds me of the skyscraper building frenzy that usually appears just before bust.
  12. Yes, but current rental income can only support house prices that are about 30-40% lower than today. This is what I can't understand in the house-prices-are-not-a-rip-off argument.
  13. All this lends weight to the argument that price will fall by around 30-40% in the medium term. The rental value of a property is the best anaylsis of it's 'true' worth because in more rational times there will be a trade off between rental value and how much it costs to earn that rent. At the moment, getting a buy to let is like putting money in the bank with a negative interest rate.
  14. No links here, just my thoughts. All economic commentators say that prices are 30-40% above their long term or 'true' value, as based on prices relative to affordability and rental value. Rents are not able to cover the costs of buying a property today (in general) and first-time buyers are priced out. Eventually (now) fewer people are going to buy property and this will cause prices to fall. Simple. So what argument do the 'bulls' have to justify prices today?
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