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The Knimbies who say No

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Everything posted by The Knimbies who say No

  1. Seems the reported 50 or so Brexit impact studies will be of some significance. Govt. is resisting their release (which may be a clue as to their conclusions). Edit moves afoot to try and force their release: https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/13/david-davis-faces-legal-threat-over-secret-reports-on-brexit-impact
  2. Agreed. Perhaps we are partly seeing the results of parties defending indefensible behaviour over many years- a cohort of senior MPs who feel (with some justification) politically indestructible. Pisspoor characters/judgement and unsavoury types to a man or woman, just gets to the point there are too many to deal with.
  3. It's almost as if he/he and she (Shapps, Green & Stockheath) are untrustworthy. I still can't quite believe how his political career was not ended by those revelations.
  4. Too funny it's Shapps doing the maneouvering, lest we forget his scammy software past. Whatever the 1922 committee internal party leadership system says about minimum numbers of MPs required to hold a leadership challenge is somewhat beside the point given May's majority is well below that number. If 30 are seriously considering supporting a challenge, that ought to be enough to sink her administration. We'll see...
  5. Sure, what I'm getting at is trying to get at is whether there exists the point at which the public pull back the curtain on the Cons and realise there is very little of substance there. An average of what, 200 members per constituency? And this is the Governing Party? Even the conference looks pretty desolate. Surely people are watching and wondering why on earth such a seemingly small group of people have control of the country? Greens have 45k members.
  6. Bit O/T but I Can't help but feel that the issue of FPTP and PR will raise its head again if/as/when the extent of the various parties membership/seat ratios is examined: Cons 1 seat per 300 members approx Labour 1:2,000 LD 1:8,000
  7. Kinda interesting to look at what is known about party membership figures(caveat:data from parties themselves) Lib Dems have never been higher, possibly ahead of the Conservatives now. From a few months ago, Lib Dems over 100k members: https://www.libdems.org.uk/liberal-democrats-highest-membership-local-elections Labour 570k:, Tories...? Tortes can have a minimum of 60k fully paid up members in 2016 going on £1.5M subs at £25 each, but not everyone pays the full amount. Estimates around 100k. can wait for the 2017 membership subs figures to be released http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/31/labour-generated-10-times-party-membership-fees-tories-2016/ https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/09/conservative-party-membership-is-down-by-a-quarter-could-it-drop-below-100000-next-year.html Conceivable that the Tories are the third party in terms of membership, average age of a member is 71. Have we passed 'peak Conservatism'?
  8. Yes, I was chatting to a 16 year old, and a (very?) rare beast at that- an ideological conservative. Radio was on, news bulletin led with May's 'appeal to younger voters' via tuition fee freeze /HTB came up. The young person (easily smart enough to go to uni) was of the view that it was good news. I think it was just a Pavlovian response to support a Con Govt, but a little bit of me died inside regardless.
  9. With jumbo defined benefit pensions, no mortgages and more cash coming in than their limited imagination can handle, I'm sure the Brexiteers I know will still manage to give the impression they are pissed off with their lot in life irrespective of whatever turn of events occurs. The joie de Vivre of an abattoir to a man. Really unimpressive cohort, shame as they are all extended family members.
  10. Could probably make an algorithm to adjust the rate on a daily basis for the ultimate technocratic solution. If it's political (!) then elected politicians should take responsibility. There's no reason why the MPC couldn't be formed from MPs.
  11. On the first question, My missus works in the public sector, her role is to bring private businesses in to pay to use publicly funded insanely complicated science equipment, plus the relevant academic expertise to analyse the output, to advance product development and drive costs down, and as a result, business success. Some businesses don't know how some of this stuff is of use until they turn up, which is not a criticism. E.g. Race teams binning wheels after x miles due to rules of thumb about longevity; with a decent light source you can examine whether there is any internal structure issue and run them much longer, or remove cracked items sooner. I'm sure they all display the public sector input to their product enhancement proudly Question 2: Buy to Let, as much as that can be described as 'private sector', rather than publically owned banks scooping housing benefits.
  12. Seems like used finance is quite a different beast to that offered on new cars. Maybe the used market will get the ZIRP treatment to hold up nominal values, seems to be the only game in town. It ain't good is it?
  13. Interesting, despite following this topic for a while I came to the conclusion I didn't have a good handle on the drivers (no pun intended) of the situation. PPI refunds clearly got the ball rolling but I've been surprised at how resilient sales have been in the wake of dwindling PPI refunds. I guess people simply have to find the cash, one way or another, if they need a car once on the PCP wagon and the term looms. The regular upgrades inside the original term is also something I didn't expect either. When searching for a car a while back I was also surprised at the poor quality of much of the offered PCP return (assumed as they are 1-3 years old) auction stock from finance houses, I guessed that this was a sign of some sort of system whereby the majority of good cars were kept on the dealer forcourts to be sold used (possibly on another PCP) while the sheds get hives off to private traders who fancy taking on a cosmetically poor newish car. Might have been ever thus to be honest. Dunno what sort of market there is for those newish tatty vehicles. I'd disagree with the Sun that it's certainly good time to buy used; looking at the exact spec of car my missus bought close to 16 months ago, there is a used example for sale today (15 plate, 22,000 miles) for £9,500, versus £11,700 paid for a then current 65 plate delivery mileage example. Even knocking the expected price down a bit of the used it's not clear which is better value in my mind.The Knimbies who say No
  14. My missus and I were faced with the prospect of going through means testing for 'only £200 or £300' in child benefit a few years ago. Given everything that was going on, with having a new baby in the house, we simply couldn't be arsed with the forms and hassle. No such problems if you're sitting in the house retired and the cheques just turn up. Also gives a person a chance to complain about the queues at the bank to pay it in too, double bonus!
  15. Given the outcome it's not clear whether that was a wise decision. Pandering to asset holders is increasingly going to go out of fashion, even if they remain very vocal.
  16. May might be one of the first for whom the message is 'if the cost of housing remains high you'll lose your job' might be apt.
  17. I think the equality of opportunity focus was necessarily corrupted by those like who you mention simply because they know that when push comes to shove, the plebs making up the key voting blocs generally only buy into baseline Thatcherite approach while they are skint. They effect an effortless transition to the mindset of the BlaiCamBornes once they've used the level playing field to get some assets on their balance sheet. It offers the chance to live the "British Dream" of having one's lifestyle funded by others, just like posh people. And they'll be f**ked if they'll have that dream scuppered by jumped up youngsters wanting a fair go in 2017.
  18. The Thatcherite ideal is roughly (in my view) that equality of opportunity begats aspiration begats optimal outcomes. The biggest single item which can affect equality of opportunity for good or ill is the cost of essentials, chief among them housing. Drive up housing costs = more dependence on the state, increasing importance of birthrights, inheritances and degraded aspirations as things become unaffordable = poorer outcomes. Not rocket science, is it?
  19. Exactly. The decade's worth of, what was it on average, RPI (remember that!) +5% pay rises must have been a grind. Of course, easy to look at it from the long view, perhaps the uncertainty at the time was difficult to manage, but I doubt it could be worse than today.
  20. From 2011: http://citywire.co.uk/money/why-nationwide-prefers-buy-to-let-landlords-to-first-time-buyers/a489252
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