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espc

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  1. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    OK, after only a minor falling out with our content management system you should now be able to view our latest house price report here. Oh, and (very) belated Happy New Year wishes to one and all.
  2. Yes it has. Previously each property was allocated to one district. So for example, a property had to be defined against Warriston or Trinity. The new site allows these boundaries to merge as districts are not defined exactly and a property can be under multiple districts within reason (we plotted all the districts based on 10 years of data and tried to remove any strange outliers)
  3. Thanks for the feedback. If there is anything you think is missing...let us know. The site has been overhauled in-house so we can change things.
  4. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    If you are interested in a property, you should submit a note of interest. This means that nothing should happen relating to the sale of the property without you being informed. If you are the first person to place a note of interest on a property, it is relatively common that you have the choice to submit an offer at that point and purchase the property before others get round to submitting a note of interest.
  5. any thoughts on the new site?
  6. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Alrighty, inspired by ccc's question re areas where prices have risen and after far too many delays (again, apologies), breakdown of average prices by district for two-bedroom flats in Edinburgh can be found here. Table of figures is linked at the bottom of the article, but if you just want to dive straight in they're here. We briefly had issues with new content on the Beta site only appearing on one out of three servers yesterday but these should be resolved now. If you've any problems viewing either link though feel free to drop us an email at either help@ or marketing@espc.com.
  7. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    One September House Price Report as promised. http://beta.espc.com/news-events/house-price-reports/2011/september And as I'm writing this I've just realised I need to get the developer types to update the historical house price data file, which I shall scurry off and do just now. In the meantime, the usual table of figures is viewable via the above link if you scroll down to the bottom of the article.
  8. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    You offer kind words and I repay you with silence. Humblest of apologies to both yourself and the venerable ccc.Just wanted to let you know that the previously promised info on prices broken down by district will indeed be forthcoming either tomorrow or Friday. With predictably stellar timing the stats corner was swamped with a deluge of work from beloved colleagues almost immediately after my PC went kablooey at the end of last week, hence the delay. At the risk of tempting fate, things seem to be on something resembling an even keel again now, so should have said district report as well as the usual monthly figures with you shortly.
  9. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    I could probably be helpful by answering questions like these as well, rather than just boring everyone with statistical ramblings. The 90% figure I believe relates (or related) to Edinburgh only. 75% relates to Edinburgh, Lothians and Fife. For what it's worth, latest figure I have for Edinburgh itself (source Fortuno Consulting, May 2011) is 88%. Is correct sir. Off-market sales are not entirely uncommon at the upper end of the market and there are also cases where properties are sold within families etc and are thus not advertised. There's also a small number sold via auction and by what the Americans termed FSBO (For Sale By Owner). I should also quickly say the breakdown of prices by districts etc I mentioned a few posts back may be delayed slightly as my PC greeted me with the Black Screen of Death this morning and I've been relegated to using a computer which appears to be powered be a solitary hamster earnestly running round in a wheel. I'm sure he's doing his best, but any attempts to open larger spreadsheets or query our database were greeted with a large degree of whirring, complaints about virtual memory and then lots of messages advising me errors had occurred (none of which I want to send error reports about). And you thought my geometric mean chat was dull! Anyway, I'm reliably informed I'll have something shiny and new (or at least not-hamster-powered) on Monday, so should be available by Wednesday.
  10. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Average house price figures are always plain old arithmetic mean. The issue you refer to with compounding is related to describing proportional growth over a number of years. For instance say you had the following average house prices: Year 1: £100,000 Year 2: £105,000 Year 3: £115,500 Year 4: £132,825 Annual growth for those years is 5%, then 10%, then 15%. The arithmetic mean of the annual growth is thus (5% + 10% + 15%)/3 = 10%. But were prices to grow at a consistent 10% pa you'd get the following averages: Year 1: £100,000 Year 2: £110,000 Year 3: £121,000 Year 4: £133,100 The arithmetic mean overstates annual growth. The geometric mean is (1.05 * 1.1 * 1.15) ^ (1/3) = 9.9242% which gives you: Year 1: £100,000 Year 2: £109,924.20 Year 3: £120,833.30 Year 4: £132,825 And thus correctly describes "average" annual growth. For that reason if we're ever talking about the "average" annual growth over a period of several years it would be the geometric mean of said growth which we would refer to, but the "average" house prices themselves will always be arithmetic mean.
  11. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Apologies for the late reply. I'd been meaning to do some digging for you re/ what areas had seen price increases but then got caught up working on other things. Some areas are indeed seeing prices rise but as you'd probably expect in the significant majority of cases prices are lower than they were a year ago. Looking at Edinburgh, if you use two-bedroom flats as an example (and taking only districts with at least five or more sales of said properties this year and last) then the average house price is lower this year than last in 76% of districts. Those that have seen prices rise include the likes of Corstorphine, Tollcross and Newhaven. Similarly, for one-bedroom flats, prices are lower this year than last in about 70% of districts. Newington and the West End are amongst those that have seen annual rises. The fact that some districts have seen prices rise is partly just attributable to plain old statistical chance. Once you get down to specific districts and property types within a city you can tend to see some anomalies (both in terms of positive and negative variances) that won't be reflective of long-term trends.That said, and speaking *very* generally, it tends to be areas where prices are at the mid to upper end of the market that have seen higher demand. This strikes me as precisely the sort of thing I should do some more detailed work on and make available to the masses. I fear it will prove interesting only to the sort of tremendously cool people who spend the majority of their lives staring at spreadsheets, but I shall pull some facts and figures together and post them on the new site in the hope of pleasing kindred spirits. Hopefully be done by early next week at the latest and I'll post a link here when done. Sorry again for the late reply.
  12. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Excellent point. Will make sure it's added. Thanks for letting us know. That would be more a seasonal fluctuation in this instance. The rolling average in the three months to July has been higher than that for the three months to June every year going back to 2001, but obviously prices haven't always been rising over that period. We tend to focus on annual changes because we don't seasonally adjust our figures and in this case certainly give a more accurate picture of the market. For what it's worth, the skew stemming from the types of properties selling has settled down somewhat over the last year or two (ie the breakdown of properties selling this year is similar to that last year) but there is still a higher proportion of larger properties selling than pre-2008 so it's worth bearing that in mind if you're comparing average figures in recent years with older data. Hope that helps.
  13. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Hmm, it appears to be trying to link to somewhere that doesn't exist. There's at least a 70% chance that this is because I don't understand the intricacies of our new CMS but until such a time as this is confirmed I think the mature thing for us all to do is to blame someone else entirely. It *should* be pointing to here. Thanks again, and I'll get the link amended directly.
  14. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Well gosh darn it, beaten to linking to our own press release. I'm so ashamed. You also saved me from the 'message board etiquette dilemma' of whether to post it in this thread even though it hadn't been updated for a while, or the more-recently-but-less-often-used 'Edinburgh Spring bounce' one, and for this I thank you. Anyway, as you'll probably notice we're posting these to the beta site as part of the gradual migration to the new website but they should still be accessible from the Market Watch section from Ye Olde Worlde espc.com. As ever, any problems finding anything feel free to ping us an email. Ditto if you have any feedback on the new website.
  15. espc

    Edinbugh Latest

    Apologies, I hadn't seen you had already replied before I posted saying "please email us any feedback". Perhaps we posted at almost the same time or, more likely, I'm just that blind. In any event, consider it fed back. The area isn't currently stored as a field in our own database, but it is in the home report which *is* in our database. We were already looking at trying to pull the valuation from the home report into our database and I would think the principle would be much the same for extracting the floor area. Don't think it'll be feasible to include when the website first goes live simply because of time constraints, but it might be something we can do down the line because I agree that it would be very useful to have. Thanks for the feedback.
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